https://elmwealth.com/capital-market-assumptions/

Edit: whoops, you were looking backwards. This link was about looking forward.

Kelton has a documentary on MMT called Finding the Money. I’m undecided on it, and MMT in general. However, everyone should watch this clip from the documentary:

basically holding one year ladders across several accounts in anticipation of a big, beautiful inflation (people are saying this will be the best inflation in the history of this country. Let's make inflation great again). Damn, the above is all stated with so much confidence that I may have a futu...

There is intelligent speculation as there is intelligent investing. But there are many ways in which speculation may be unintelligent. Of these the foremost are: speculating when you think you are investing speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for ...

My take is that I can take part in the AI craze by just buying TSM.

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2024 1:04 pm The rule of thumb suggested by bond expert Larry Swedroe - 20 basis points of additional interest for each additional year - strikes me as being a reasonable starting point in thinking about allocations.

This is great, thanks.

Here's an interesting chart of Bitcoin Maximalism:



Cryptocurrency enthusiasts were rallied around Bitcoin until 2017. At that point, the developers refused to scale it, and many folks jumped ship.

Jim Rickards has recently come out with yet another book. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CY4PP8C2/?ref_=cm_wl_huc_item MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy The salient questions here are: 1) Has Smith1776 yet bought it? 2) If so, has he yet read it? I read this analogy in the news this mo...

(1) If the interest were 5% or higher, I would do the opposite of what I wrote earlier, feeling comfortable “sticking my wife with them.” CraigR had enough to live off the the interest. I don’t, but the wife could do worse than collecting 5% on a bunch of treasuries for years to come. (Alternativel...

Let's dig into this game the algorithm angle. Okay, so we have an adaptive blocksize limit in place. Who is gaming the algorithm, what is their aim, and what does it cost them? Im a miner, I flood the blockspace to drive up the blocksize which at some point drops a bunch of full nodes off the netwo...

For every investor it means that when he limits his return to a small figure -- as formerly, at least, in a conventional bond or preferred stock -- he must demand convincing evidence that he is not risking a substantial part of his principal. I think there's an argument to be made that principal is...

Last cycle we saw a 75% drawdown. Are you going to try to avoid the next one in some way or just HODL through it all? I’m planning to HODL the entire position till I reach my retirement number. After that I’ll switch back to a more risk parity or PP-esque strategy. Don't forget there are important ...

Conversation probably swings from "fees too high" to "fees too low, how do we sustain mining!" No. 99% of the time you ensure enough block space such that fees are extremely low. If someone wants to burn their precious satoshis to “spam” the network, they are welcome to. They on...

I think that Bogleheads who say 'Who cares what the value of my TIPS are now because at maturity, they'll end up paying 2% above inflation" have brains that are more like machines than human brains. In the human world holding long-duration bonds of any kind when their prices are getting pounde...

Hello 👋🏻 So what are the PP users and HB followers doing ? Bitcoin on VP only ? Or 5% on HBPP is correct ✅? Kindest regards! 🙌 Frugal, I'm glad you're still out there. Would you please give us one random fact about you? Despite being the OP of this thread, I now believe it's only appropriate for th...

Conversation probably swings from "fees too high" to "fees too low, how do we sustain mining!" No. 99% of the time you ensure enough block space such that fees are extremely low. If someone wants to burn their precious satoshis to “spam” the network, they are welcome to. They on...

I’m familiar with this argument, but find it far fetched. The institutions in question benefit from the fact that they control the base layer. They went through great lengths to own the base layer and will not easily give it up. In fact, I believe Bitcoin has already been neutered by these parties....

- Lightning Network is a custodial solution - not crypto currency This is not true. You can use lightning in a custodial or non-custodial manner. Are you referring to running your own Lightning node? As fees to send a transaction became untenable for commerce, and the developers in control of the p...

Last cycle we saw a 75% drawdown. Are you going to try to avoid the next one in some way or just HODL through it all?

Whats gov gonna do. Cut spending, raise taxes, or inflate. No free lunch for them if CPI=money supply. Thats whats egregious about the ibond rate. Capped at 10k and they still give you nothing. High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through ...

Rather, Bitcoin would replace the "base layer" for final settlement transactions between institutions where currently the final settlement time can literally be weeks. ("Final settlement" meaning the point in which a transaction can't be reversed.) From this frame of reference, ...

If I could do it all over, while young, I would have focused on accumulating equities in tax-free space and gold with any taxable money left over. Cash position is emergency fund sized. Then as middle age approaches, and considerable personal capital has been converted to financial capital, I would ...

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 7:22 pm Also take inflation into account when computing cap gains, so that real gains are taxed rather than nominal gains.

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