Search found 2060 matches

by I Shrugged
Sun Feb 11, 2024 10:40 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin interview
Replies: 7
Views: 299

Re: Putin interview

I watched it and have not watched or read any of the media's or pundits' takes on it. I thought Putin is not the best communicator. He sure took an unnecessarily long time to explain why eastern Ukraine has long been Russian. Overall he didn't do a great job of making and summarizing key points. Sti...
by I Shrugged
Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:20 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024
Replies: 15
Views: 42046

Re: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024

To me, the housing crash of 07-08 was the most obvious thing I had ever seen. I didn't know how to play it so I just watched it happen and take my stocks down with it. Since it was so obvious in advance to me, I can't get too excited about the people who famously did call it. I'd be more interested ...
by I Shrugged
Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 37
Views: 31703

Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

What are cash interest rates now in the prosperous parts of the Eurozone? I've been rolling over US T-bills and earning 5+%. Money market funds are around the same rates. So now cash is not trash, at least not on a gross or nominal basis. The rates are declining slightly but I don't see it heading t...
by I Shrugged
Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2023 Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 62340

Re: 2023 Returns

13.0% for me in 2023. I run a standard 4x4 PP, and I caught the falling LTT knife a few times during the year. With inflation at 3.1% (Nov-Nov), that's about 9.9% real. Sounds great, but for 2022 I was down 18.8% real, so I'm down about 10.8% real (0.812 x 1.099) over two years. I've now been runni...
by I Shrugged
Mon Jan 01, 2024 9:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2023 Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 62340

Re: 2023 Returns

14.2% for the year 2.7% for 3 years 7.4% for 5 years 5.4% for 10 years Stocks have grown to 45% of the portfolio Bonds 17% Cash 23% Gold 15% I'm fine with those. I'd have huge gains taxes if I sold stocks. If you prefer, it can be construed as a PP + a VP of stocks. About 75% of it would be a well-b...
by I Shrugged
Wed Nov 22, 2023 1:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: High cost gold depositories are you giving your gold away
Replies: 13
Views: 10587

Re: High cost gold depositories are you giving your gold away

Someone I knew used to buy 35 pound pails of junk silver coins from a national PM dealer. They were shipped USPS Insured by the dealer.
by I Shrugged
Wed Nov 22, 2023 1:01 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Javier Milei, Argentina, wants to Dollarize their economy?
Replies: 6
Views: 5067

Re: Javier Milei, Argentina, wants to Dollarize their economy?

I don't think he will succeed because AR has a deep state, or entrenched state interests, to use a less radioactive term for the same thing. Just like all countries. The deep state will fight for its survival, and it's more powerful than a president.
by I Shrugged
Wed Nov 22, 2023 12:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Javier Milei, Argentina, wants to Dollarize their economy?
Replies: 6
Views: 5067

Re: Javier Milei, Argentina, wants to Dollarize their economy?

How is that going to happen? Which of the three will he be willing to sacrifice? I think he'll try to keep all three, and it will be a failure. Wasn't the problem with Greece that they took out loans which they then had to pay back with real money (Euros) and not monopoly money (Drachma)? Had they ...
by I Shrugged
Fri Oct 13, 2023 5:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why the big move in gold?
Replies: 27
Views: 37321

Why the big move in gold?

Big move in gold today. Why?
by I Shrugged
Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:02 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Jan 6 footage on Tucker
Replies: 35
Views: 24733

Re: Jan 6 footage on Tucker

Sorry, Vinny, I may have been unclear. I'm not asking for your opinion of Naomi Wolf. What is your opinion of what she is saying here? He didn't have an opinion on Naomi Wolf. Wikipedia did. It is my perception that Vinny has no opinion on anything and no ability to critically think on his own, onl...
by I Shrugged
Sat Mar 11, 2023 5:24 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Jan 6 footage on Tucker
Replies: 35
Views: 24733

Re: Jan 6 footage on Tucker

Turns out Carlson said shot. Somehow I heard killed. My mistake, not his.
by I Shrugged
Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:09 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Jan 6 footage on Tucker
Replies: 35
Views: 24733

Re: Jan 6 footage on Tucker

Vinny, you often seem to strongly to see the forest and not the trees, imo. When you encounter an erroneous statement, your whole focus goes there, to the detriment of a bigger picture. So yes, apparently they were wounded, not killed. Does that really change the significance of the event that much?...
by I Shrugged
Thu Mar 09, 2023 12:51 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Socialism - Should we be worried
Replies: 65
Views: 27373

Re: Socialism - Should we be worried

It's good to know there is still a county where you can buy an average house under 300K. Actually I'm sure there are a lot of them, but most of the "good job" places are way above that. It's rough.
by I Shrugged
Thu Mar 09, 2023 12:46 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Jan 6 footage on Tucker
Replies: 35
Views: 24733

Re: Jan 6 footage on Tucker

January 6th stands alone in the annals of our country's history. Balogna. :) I have to credit Tucker Carlson's segments for reminding me of this. In 1954 Puerto Rican separatists killed, yes killed, 5 members of the US Congress in the House. As far as a riot type thing, in the George Floyd riots in...
by I Shrugged
Thu Mar 09, 2023 12:38 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Jan 6 footage on Tucker
Replies: 35
Views: 24733

Re: Jan 6 footage on Tucker

Releasing footage just to a guy on the right sure does sound like weaponization of government This morning I watched a couple of the Tucker Carlson segments. He has a very compelling case. The biggest thing he has shown is that exculpatory evidence against the "QAnon Shaman" was withheld from him a...
by I Shrugged
Wed Mar 08, 2023 7:11 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Jan 6 footage on Tucker
Replies: 35
Views: 24733

Re: Jan 6 footage on Tucker

This is all political on both sides. They are distressed by the efforts by MCarthy and Carlson to mitigate the perceptions, because of all the police who were injured. During all the “mostly peaceful” antifa riots, did the mainstream media spend much time on how many police were injured? No doubt th...
by I Shrugged
Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:35 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 24497

Re: When will indexing blow up?

whatchamacallit wrote:
Sun Mar 05, 2023 12:01 pm
Here is this question answered by Burton Malkiel at the beginning of this year:

https://youtu.be/n9sVJQS5TXw?t=2343


The whole video is enjoyable and impressive coming from the 90 year old Burton Malkiel.
That’s great! And thanks for indexing it to the correct spot.
by I Shrugged
Sat Mar 04, 2023 1:33 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1432171

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Sunday Times lab leak article, if you can access it. A nice recap of the past and current viewpoints.

https://apple.news/ApznaEknWQOGZ7ex_IAYLKg
by I Shrugged
Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:30 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II
Replies: 845
Views: 382980

Re: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II

Xan wrote:
Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:11 am
Old people in the Senate isn't unprecedented.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying too.
:)
by I Shrugged
Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:04 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II
Replies: 845
Views: 382980

Re: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II

There should be a fossil museum attached to the Senate.
by I Shrugged
Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:03 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 24497

Re: When will indexing blow up?

You can read about it for hours on bogleheads. tldr you only need a handful of market makers. Even here many dont hold total market. They make sector and factor bets. I can see that making sense. I wonder how hard it would be for some big money to REALLY move some stocks, then. Maybe not a practica...
by I Shrugged
Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:01 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 24497

Re: When will indexing blow up?

I could see a future where people who start companies don't incporporate, {etc} This is quite astute. I like it. One of the difficulties that would have to be overcome is that of obtaining capital. Investors would need some mechanism to guarantee their equity allocation. That doesn't sound unsolvab...
by I Shrugged
Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:58 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Great article on the new politics
Replies: 12
Views: 4951

Re: Great article on the new politics

I think the militia types were a small part of the article, more of the sizzle than the steak. You'll get no argument from me about their potential effectiveness if directly confronting the US government. The govt does not do a lot of things well, but one thing they are great at is killing you if th...
by I Shrugged
Thu Mar 02, 2023 12:31 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 24497

Re: When will indexing blow up?

Understood.

But, there has to be a market share inflection point, when the index funds have no underlying price discovery and things go crazy.
by I Shrugged
Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:20 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 24497

When will indexing blow up?

I get this free market and ramblings email from Jared Dillian, which I enjoy. Today's was about indexing being a time bomb. This is something I have thought for years. When everyone owns the index, it will no longer be a safe thing. I could not find a link so here is the actual text. Thoughts? Here ...