Putin Invades Ukraine II

[flyingpylon]

To say Ukraine started the war is like saying a rape victim had it coming, so it's her fault, not the rapist's.

Doesn’t seem like he was putting it quite that way.

[seajay]

DID Ukraine start the war??!!!

AIUI many Russians are allocated a home/place to live, and work. Putin intentionally allocated many Russians to live in the Donbas region of Ukraine and indoctrinated the local population into Russian ways/education - a form of war via large scale migration conquest. There's been conflict in that region for over a decade without resolution. The more recent/familiar/larger war is a follow up attempt by Putin to grab the whole of Ukraine - in what he seemed thought could be possible within a week or two. IMO the aggressor is all too clear/obvious, as have Russia atrocities been buried such as Ukrainian women/children/babies - in part a consequence of Putin emptying Russian prisons to serve as 'soldiers'.

[ppnewbie]

You may be right about the Russian settlement of that region but I have heard he only sent a small portion of his army to fight. Something like five or ten percent. That does not sound like he was trying to conquer Ukraine. Regardless of that, he may be successful based on the negotiated outcome.

A smart leader would have understood that when you are in between Russia and the US (Europe can be disregarded almost completely) you need to be very careful. Play a super long skillful game of appeasement of your extremely powerful neighbor while also not upsetting the US too much even though they really don’t care about you at all.

Maybe compromise a bunch of Russian oligarchs over 20 years so they can soften Putin up to your plight. Get what you can out of Western Europe whose best days are behind it. Build industries like its once burgeoning tech industry.

And above all do not try to join NATO because Europe will just LOAN you money the US will send just enough to keep you going and everyone will feel sad as they watch the carnage.

[dualstow]

I will always give Zelensky credit for not taking a stash and fleeing the country with his family. He could have easily done that.

You mean like when Bashar al-Assad fled Syria? I wondered we he is now. The Internet just told me Moscow. Is that the sanctuary city for dictators?

To me these individuals represent stark contrast in character - former leader of Syria vs. current leader of Ukraine.

I usually think of African dictators (heart of Africa, not west Asia) but although it happened after war broke out, Assad is as good an example as any.

[yankees60]

To say Ukraine started the war is like saying a rape victim had it coming, so it's her fault, not the rapist's.

Doesn’t seem like he was putting it quite that way.

Then in what other way was he putting it?

[yankees60]

You may be right about the Russian settlement of that region but I have heard he only sent a small portion of his army to fight. Something like five or ten percent. That does not sound like he was trying to conquer Ukraine. Regardless of that, he may be successful based on the negotiated outcome.

A smart leader would have understood that when you are in between Russia and the US (Europe can be disregarded almost completely) you need to be very careful. Play a super long skillful game of appeasement of your extremely powerful neighbor while also not upsetting the US too much even though they really don’t care about you at all.

Maybe compromise a bunch of Russian oligarchs over 20 years so they can soften Putin up to your plight. Get what you can out of Western Europe whose best days are behind it. Build industries like its once burgeoning tech industry.

And above all do not try to join NATO because Europe will just LOAN you money the US will send just enough to keep you going and everyone will feel sad as they watch the carnage.

It seems that when Putin went in, he thought it'd be all over in a week or two. Get rid of Zelenskyy and put in a puppet leader. Easiest way to take over Ukraine without much more war or formally occupying it.

I'm sure he never expected the un-success (or failure) that's he's been experiencing the last three years. It was NOT supposed to have gone like this.

[yankees60]

I will always give Zelensky credit for not taking a stash and fleeing the country with his family. He could have easily done that.

You mean like when Bashar al-Assad fled Syria? I wondered we he is now. The Internet just told me Moscow. Is that the sanctuary city for dictators?

To me these individuals represent stark contrast in character - former leader of Syria vs. current leader of Ukraine.

I usually think of African dictators (heart of Africa, not west Asia) but although it happened after war broke out, Assad is as good an example as any.

"Even before France surrendered on 22 June 1940, General Charles de Gaulle fled to London, from where he called on his fellow citizens to resist the Germans."

[yankees60]

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[glennds]

It seems that when Putin went in, he thought it'd be all over in a week or two. Get rid of Zelenskyy and put in a puppet leader. Easiest way to take over Ukraine without much more war or formally occupying it.

I'm sure he never expected the un-success (or failure) that's he's been experiencing the last three years. It was NOT supposed to have gone like this.

I think you're right, and there is good precedent in history. The United States thought it would make quick work of Vietnam and Afghanistan. The USSR thought it would make quick work of Afghanistan in the 80s.

[glennds]

To say Ukraine started the war is like saying a rape victim had it coming, so it's her fault, not the rapist's.

Doesn’t seem like he was putting it quite that way.

From AP article February 21, 2025

Trump says Ukraine started the war that’s killing its citizens. What are the facts?........

WHAT TRUMP SAID: “You’ve been there for three years. You should have ended it. ... You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

THE FACTS: Russia’s army crossed the border on Feb. 24, 2022, in an all-out invasion that Putin sought to justify by falsely saying it was needed to protect Russian-speaking civilians in eastern Ukraine and prevent the country from joining NATO.

But Russia’s aggression against Ukraine didn’t start then. In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin saw signs that Ukraine was pulling away from Russia’s sphere of influence, seeking alliances with western European nations.

Putin illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula and started an armed aggression in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas that grew into a long-running conflict that left thousands dead.

That conflict simmered until 2022, when Putin ordered what he called military exercises along Ukraine’s borders. He told the world that the roughly 150,000 soldiers that he had amassed would not be used to invade Ukraine. But in the early hours of Feb. 24, Russia launched widespread airstrikes and soldiers began pouring over the border.

[I Shrugged]

duplicate

[I Shrugged]

From AP article February 21, 2025

Of course the AP would never omit or skew anything, right?

[I Shrugged]

In the 90s NATO expanded to include former Eastern Block states, despite a US promise not to do so.
We bombed Serbia, outside of UN rules. (If that matters anyway.)
In 2000 the US sponsored the overthrow of a Serbian government friendly to Russia.
In 2003, the same for Georgia.
In 2004 and 2014, Ukraine.
In 2005, failed to do same in Belarus.
Tajikistan 2005.
Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Libya.
Supported Al Qaeda against Soviets in Afghanistan, Russia in Chechnya.
Sanctions sanctions sanctions.

Serious noises were being made about Ukraine joining NATO. There are ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and Russia feels they should be part of Russia. Russia has a major naval base at Sevastopol (Crimea). Entry to NATO would mean missiles sited in Ukraine, pointed at Russia, within a few minutes flight time.

Yeah, Russia started the war. We sure provoked them over and over. The whole idea that Russia can't wait to take Europe is outrageously stupid. And that we need to work against them constantly in order to prevent it. They are barely a second class country. As you can see, their military is crap. Yes, they have nukes. Who doesn't. (And we have walked away from or declined efforts at reduction.) Russia Russia Russia, the great bogeyman. The US runs around the world like a bull in a china shop. Yet when something breaks, we have no blame?

From the US side, this war was not prevented because the US military/statecraft wanted it to happen. That is absolutely true. You may recall my comments here about the first Trump impeachment. It was all a sham, done because Trump was not going along with the plan. The phone call was the excuse to get him. They wanted to use Ukraine to fight a proxy war to further weaken Russia. Which has probably happened, so maybe they got their wish. Sleepy Joe could have stopped it, but they wanted it.

I imagine Trump sees it as the insanity it is. Hundreds of thousands of casualties, death and destruction. Not to mention the bottomless pit of US capital. A third of a trillion dollars so far, and a huge amount of that missing and unaccounted for. And, he got impeached for wanting to prevent it, so there is that aspect of it.

At this point, they are negotiating, and I'm sure Putin needs a face-saving way to exit. Zelenskyy does not. He might want one, but it's not essential for getting an agreement. He will do as he's told or "there's the plane waiting to take you to wherever".

[yankees60]

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/global ... and-russia

Ending a Catastrophe for Ukraine and Russia
Ed D'Agostino Ed D'Agostino
|
February 21, 2025
|
FacebookXEmailShare
If you feel like the world order is being rearranged, you’re right. It is, and quickly.

Settlement discussions about Ukraine have begun—without Ukraine. The talks were held in Saudi Arabia.

These are important signals. George Friedman helps us break them down in this week’s interview.

If you look at Russia’s war against Ukraine objectively, you could argue it’s been a disaster for Putin on a grand scale. After three years and over $200 billion, along with an estimated 300,000 Russian casualties, Putin has failed to defeat a much smaller nation, let alone rebuild an empire. Of course, this wasn’t just a war against Ukraine, which received $65.9 billion in military assistance from the US. This was Russia vs. the West.

The leader of the West, the US, no longer has an interest in prolonging (or funding) this war. We are seeking to force a settlement. This has put in motion what looks like a game of 3D chess.

For starters, the US is seeking guaranteed access to rare earth minerals from Ukraine, reducing dependence on China. Will the US ease pressure on Russia in exchange for this access? It looks that way.

Bringing Russia back into the global fray would be a clear signal to China. “We can make peace with those willing to work with us. And we can find ways to replace those minerals you’ve decided should not come our way.”

Let’s look at some of those minerals. Take something seemingly benign like graphite, which is used to produce steel and lithium-ion batteries. The US hasn’t produced graphite since the 1950s, and 42% of our graphite supply comes from China. But China has recently tightened export restrictions on graphite—and outright banned the export of other critical minerals.

Where else could we get graphite? As it happens, Ukraine and the surrounding regions are mineral rich…


Source: The Guardian (Click to enlarge)

As George says in our interview, “The neutrality of Ukraine is guaranteed if the Americans get what they want… the minerals.”

George and I take a deep dive into the geopolitical machinations behind the Ukraine settlement talks. You’ll hear why settlement negotiations happened in Saudi Arabia, why NATO has a limited role to play, why China is wooing an ancient enemy, and President Trump’s plan to “redesign the world.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-okIcAADYE

Trump's Master Plan: How Russia Lost Everything | George Friedman

[yankees60]

For the record ... I reject all the comparisons between now and 1938 with the appeasements toward Hitler.

[dualstow]

Zelensky says he's willing to step down. Interesting.

[yankees60]

Zelensky says he's willing to step down. Interesting.

A leader who is clearly willing to put country ahead of self. Unlike most politicians for whom it is clearly the reverse.

[seajay]

America now voting with Russia, North Korea, Belarus etc. is a very clear indication that Europe should no longer trust any American partnership/support (trade, information sharing or American supplied military (or commercial) hardware), and should join the rush to de-dollarize (convert dollars to gold). The UK has already made initial steps to oust Apple from the UK, great opportunities for European rivals/alternatives to Google, Apple, Microsoft ...etc.

Good for the price of gold in America, but I suspect US taxes will be raised to levels that dissuade Americans from buying/holding gold.

[dualstow]

. The UK has already made initial steps to oust Apple from the UK, great opportunities for European rivals/alternatives to Google, Apple, Microsoft ...etc.

Is this a parody, CJ?

[coasting]

America now voting with Russia, North Korea, Belarus etc.

As a US citizen, I'm disappointed that our nation chooses not to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I mean I know the resolution is just symbolic, but not even abstaining - actually voting against.

and should join the rush to de-dollarize

I imagine many countries, especially those on Russia's border (Poland, Finland, Sweden, Baltics), will be joining the rush to develop their own nuclear weapons. Putin's ambitions are not limited to 20% of Ukraine's territory.

Good for the price of gold in America

This turn in geopolitics may end up being good for the price of gold everywhere in every currency. As something of a chaos asset, it's often not a good sign when the price of gold is going up.

[seajay]

America now voting with Russia, North Korea, Belarus etc.

As a US citizen, I'm disappointed that our nation chooses not to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I mean I know the resolution is just symbolic, but not even abstaining - actually voting against.

and should join the rush to de-dollarize

I imagine many countries, especially those on Russia's border (Poland, Finland, Sweden, Baltics), will be joining the rush to develop their own nuclear weapons. Putin's ambitions are not limited to 20% of Ukraine's territory.

Good for the price of gold in America

This turn in geopolitics may end up being good for the price of gold everywhere in every currency. As something of a chaos asset, it's often not a good sign when the price of gold is going up.

The EU already has its own common defense - that the newly elected German government are looking to expand rapidly (end of NATO) - which since the start of the Ukraine war now includes Finland and Sweden. The EU also collectively hold more gold than the US. De-dollarization seems the obvious path as does instating barriers against the US, no Google/Apple/Microsoft ... in Europe type directional push and those companies may very well opt to re-domicile. Another repeat of the 1970's when US share of global market cap collapsed from 66% down to mid 20% levels, and quite possibly much deeper (300 million population/8000 million global population along with untrusted US animosity).

A return to a common gold backed trade settlement system perhaps even adoption of the BRIC-PAY (40% gold backed) US dollar seen as worthless, worse than the Wall Street Crash, more Weimar like


With the currency -> Dollar and the date line shifted 90 years up. As part of that Americans buying/holding gold is inclined to be dissuaded, I'd guess via punitive taxation policies.

[seajay]

Key will be being able to preserve your wealth in the form of gold in a manner where its not 'confiscated' in the way of the likes of punitive taxation policies


https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... zOEOXrAbmD

Countering that would be policies that sought to close down those avenues.

Perhaps Trump's own intent is to pal up with Putin as a means to better preserve the Trump family wealth.

[yankees60]

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[dualstow]

I see you quoted Nadav Eyal in there. He is an amazing journalist and writer. Unfortunately he mostly tweets in Hebrew and it can get a bit tedious to hit the translate button (even though I should be grateful that instant translations exist now).

[yankees60]

I see you quoted Nadav Eyal in there. He is an amazing journalist and writer. Unfortunately he mostly tweets in Hebrew and it can get a bit tedious to hit the translate button (even though I should be grateful that instant translations exist now).

That had appeared to me already translated by someone else. I've never done a tweet translation.