Bill Gross' Investment Outlook

[foglifter]

Bill Gross has published another Investment Outlook post. Quite entertaining read slightly spiced with the election theme.

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/ ... -Vote.aspx

[hpowders]

Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!

[clacy]

Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!

What losses are you talking about?  His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD.  In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe.  

I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin.  

Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries.  Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.

[hpowders]

Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!

What losses are you talking about?  His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD.  In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe.  

I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin.  

Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries.  Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.

Okay. I believe he sold his US gov't debt in 2011, which was the wrong call as the bond market then rallied. Okay. Not losses. Potential profits. To his credit (no pun intended), he admitted his mistake. It just shows none of these "gurus" is infallible. Nobody can time these damn markets.

Just remember when Bill Gross gives his investment outlook, he's been wrong before.

[MachineGhost]

Okay. I believe he sold his US gov't debt in 2011, which was the wrong call as the bond market then rallied. Okay. Not losses. Potential profits. To his credit (no pun intended), he admitted his mistake. It just shows none of these "gurus" is infallible. Nobody can time these damn markets.

Gurus cannot because they have their ego and profits so wrapped up in a certain worldview, they're simply not capable of being objective.  But to say that nobody can time these damn markets is false.  They're just not gurus.

[hpowders]

All I'm saying is don't take anybody's prediction on the markets as gospel. Be careful out there. If anybody was really that special with his predictions, why would he share it with the rest of us?

[clacy]

All I'm saying is don't take anybody's prediction on the markets as gospel. Be careful out there. If anybody was really that special with his predictions, why would he share it with the rest of us?

I agree with this, but I'm glad the all knowing pundits give us stuff to talk about.

[hpowders]

Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!

What losses are you talking about?  His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD.  In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe.  

I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin.  

Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries.  Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.

You mean the fund with 584% turnover? Sounds more like a hyperactive trader than a "guru expert".

[hpowders]

All I'm saying is don't take anybody's prediction on the markets as gospel. Be careful out there. If anybody was really that special with his predictions, why would he share it with the rest of us?

I agree with this, but I'm glad the all knowing pundits give us stuff to talk about.

It's the kind of fodder that keeps CNBC alive. "Did you hear that Bill Gross.....?"  :o Okay! You guys did your jobs. Now I'm adequately scared to death!!

[foglifter]

Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!

What losses are you talking about?  His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD.  In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe. 

I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin. 

Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries.  Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.

You mean the fund with 584% turnover? Sounds more like a hyperactive trader than a "guru expert".

hpowders, high turnover is only a concern if we talk about stock funds. For bond funds (and PIMCO Total Return is a bond fund) it is normal.

[hpowders]

What losses are you talking about?  His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD.  In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe. 

I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin. 

Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries.  Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.

You mean the fund with 584% turnover? Sounds more like a hyperactive trader than a "guru expert".

hpowders, high turnover is only a concern if we talk about stock funds. For bond funds (and PIMCO Total Return is a bond fund) it is normal.

No impact on transaction costs?

[foglifter]

You mean the fund with 584% turnover? Sounds more like a hyperactive trader than a "guru expert".

hpowders, high turnover is only a concern if we talk about stock funds. For bond funds (and PIMCO Total Return is a bond fund) it is normal.

No impact on transaction costs?

Yes, the turnover does result in the transaction costs and the turnover for PIMCO fund is higher than for index funds, my point was just to clarify that high turnover is normally a red flag for stock funds. Given PIMCO fund's performance numbers the negative effect of transaction costs is practically eliminated by higher rate of return.

[hpowders]

hpowders, high turnover is only a concern if we talk about stock funds. For bond funds (and PIMCO Total Return is a bond fund) it is normal.

No impact on transaction costs?

Yes, the turnover does result in the transaction costs and the turnover for PIMCO fund is higher than for index funds, my point was just to clarify that high turnover is normally a red flag for stock funds. Given PIMCO fund's performance numbers the negative effect of transaction costs is practically eliminated by higher rate of return.

584% turnover gives me a migraine. I'll pass.