Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
Moderator: Global Moderator
Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
Bill Gross has published another Investment Outlook post. Quite entertaining read slightly spiced with the election theme.
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/ ... -Vote.aspx
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/ ... -Vote.aspx
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business, and a third let him keep in reserve."
- Talmud
- Talmud
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!
I expect to move from 1 star adjunct lecturer to 4 star assistant professor on this forum very soon. Already a 3 star adjunct assistant professor.
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
What losses are you talking about? His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD. In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe.hpowders wrote: Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!
I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin.
Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries. Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.
Last edited by clacy on Thu Nov 01, 2012 8:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
Okay. I believe he sold his US gov't debt in 2011, which was the wrong call as the bond market then rallied. Okay. Not losses. Potential profits. To his credit (no pun intended), he admitted his mistake. It just shows none of these "gurus" is infallible. Nobody can time these damn markets.clacy wrote:What losses are you talking about? His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD. In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe.hpowders wrote: Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!
I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin.
Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries. Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.
Just remember when Bill Gross gives his investment outlook, he's been wrong before.
Last edited by hpowders on Thu Nov 01, 2012 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I expect to move from 1 star adjunct lecturer to 4 star assistant professor on this forum very soon. Already a 3 star adjunct assistant professor.
- MachineGhost
- Executive Member
- Posts: 10054
- Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
Gurus cannot because they have their ego and profits so wrapped up in a certain worldview, they're simply not capable of being objective. But to say that nobody can time these damn markets is false. They're just not gurus.hpowders wrote: Okay. I believe he sold his US gov't debt in 2011, which was the wrong call as the bond market then rallied. Okay. Not losses. Potential profits. To his credit (no pun intended), he admitted his mistake. It just shows none of these "gurus" is infallible. Nobody can time these damn markets.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
All I'm saying is don't take anybody's prediction on the markets as gospel. Be careful out there. If anybody was really that special with his predictions, why would he share it with the rest of us?
I expect to move from 1 star adjunct lecturer to 4 star assistant professor on this forum very soon. Already a 3 star adjunct assistant professor.
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
I agree with this, but I'm glad the all knowing pundits give us stuff to talk about.hpowders wrote: All I'm saying is don't take anybody's prediction on the markets as gospel. Be careful out there. If anybody was really that special with his predictions, why would he share it with the rest of us?

Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
You mean the fund with 584% turnover? Sounds more like a hyperactive trader than a "guru expert".clacy wrote:What losses are you talking about? His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD. In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe.hpowders wrote: Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!
I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin.
Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries. Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.

I expect to move from 1 star adjunct lecturer to 4 star assistant professor on this forum very soon. Already a 3 star adjunct assistant professor.
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
It's the kind of fodder that keeps CNBC alive. "Did you hear that Bill Gross.....?" :o Okay! You guys did your jobs. Now I'm adequately scared to death!!clacy wrote:I agree with this, but I'm glad the all knowing pundits give us stuff to talk about.hpowders wrote: All I'm saying is don't take anybody's prediction on the markets as gospel. Be careful out there. If anybody was really that special with his predictions, why would he share it with the rest of us?![]()

I expect to move from 1 star adjunct lecturer to 4 star assistant professor on this forum very soon. Already a 3 star adjunct assistant professor.
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
hpowders, high turnover is only a concern if we talk about stock funds. For bond funds (and PIMCO Total Return is a bond fund) it is normal.hpowders wrote:You mean the fund with 584% turnover? Sounds more like a hyperactive trader than a "guru expert".clacy wrote:What losses are you talking about? His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD. In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe.hpowders wrote: Now there's someone we should be paying attention to. The genius Bill Gross. How many millions has he lost recently? Good grief!
I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin.
Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries. Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.![]()
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business, and a third let him keep in reserve."
- Talmud
- Talmud
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
No impact on transaction costs?foglifter wrote:hpowders, high turnover is only a concern if we talk about stock funds. For bond funds (and PIMCO Total Return is a bond fund) it is normal.hpowders wrote:You mean the fund with 584% turnover? Sounds more like a hyperactive trader than a "guru expert".clacy wrote: What losses are you talking about? His flagship fund is up over 9% YTD. In fact, since Jan 1 of 2000, his total return fund has averaged 7.8% CAGR with a -6.63% max DD and 1.45 sharpe.
I know his public statement about shorting treasuries was ill timed, but apparently he recognized his mistake quickly because his fund has performed very well since that call. In fact, he's trounced PRPFX since that call by wide margin.
Also, I believe he meant he was short swaps and it was interpreted as short treasuries. Either way, he's gotten a bad wrap because of a public comment, but most of his detractors would kill for his record since then.![]()
I expect to move from 1 star adjunct lecturer to 4 star assistant professor on this forum very soon. Already a 3 star adjunct assistant professor.
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
Yes, the turnover does result in the transaction costs and the turnover for PIMCO fund is higher than for index funds, my point was just to clarify that high turnover is normally a red flag for stock funds. Given PIMCO fund's performance numbers the negative effect of transaction costs is practically eliminated by higher rate of return.hpowders wrote:No impact on transaction costs?foglifter wrote:hpowders, high turnover is only a concern if we talk about stock funds. For bond funds (and PIMCO Total Return is a bond fund) it is normal.hpowders wrote: You mean the fund with 584% turnover? Sounds more like a hyperactive trader than a "guru expert".![]()
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business, and a third let him keep in reserve."
- Talmud
- Talmud
Re: Bill Gross' Investment Outlook
584% turnover gives me a migraine. I'll pass.foglifter wrote:Yes, the turnover does result in the transaction costs and the turnover for PIMCO fund is higher than for index funds, my point was just to clarify that high turnover is normally a red flag for stock funds. Given PIMCO fund's performance numbers the negative effect of transaction costs is practically eliminated by higher rate of return.hpowders wrote:No impact on transaction costs?foglifter wrote: hpowders, high turnover is only a concern if we talk about stock funds. For bond funds (and PIMCO Total Return is a bond fund) it is normal.
I expect to move from 1 star adjunct lecturer to 4 star assistant professor on this forum very soon. Already a 3 star adjunct assistant professor.