Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
15
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
5
8%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 65
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:04 pm

What I don’t understand is why even after 3 years, some people continue to take everything he says at face value. So much of Trump’s communication is simply posturing to eventually arrive at something more realistic or reasonable.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:09 pm

It's all posturing and tough talk until he wimps out / gives away the store to the adversary without getting anything in return for us.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:18 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:09 pm
It's all posturing and tough talk until he wimps out / gives away the store to the adversary without getting anything in return for us.
Got an example?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by stuper1 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:23 pm

I'd love to see an example also.

On a different note, I think a lot of people dislike Trump because he's attacked various people say on Twitter. I recall somebody doing some checking on that and finding that Trump hadn't attacked anyone until he had been attached by them first, but when he does hit back, he hits back hard. Of course, you never hear it reported about the initial attack against Trump. I'm not from the east coast, but it seems to me that this is just your stereotypical New Yorker attitude. If somebody attacks you, then attack them back even harder. I say good for him, and I'm probably one of the least pugilistic type of people around. At least he's not a mealy mouthed wimp. If the American people don't like it, they can vote him out of office next year. I have my suspicions that more people like it than what some people realize.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:27 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:09 pm
It's all posturing and tough talk until he wimps out / gives away the store to the adversary without getting anything in return for us.
Are you talking about N Korea?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:17 pm

N Korea
Bolton is out, Iran sanctions may go away
Getting kissy-face right now with Xi so stocks don't crash
Maduro still there
Mexico still isn't paying
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:47 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:17 pm
N Korea
Bolton is out, Iran sanctions may go away
Getting kissy-face right now with Xi so stocks don't crash
Maduro still there
Mexico still isn't paying
Is N Korea not still talking with S Korea?
I don't know about Iran or Xi.
Maduro isn't our problem.
Mexico is helping reduce the severity of the invasion.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by stuper1 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:59 pm

And who cares if Bolton is gone? He always seemed like a war-mongering psychopath to me, but that's not based on any substantive conversations that I've had with him. If the president decides that an advisor is no longer the right fit, he should get rid of him. Isn't that what the American people wanted when they voted for him?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:33 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:59 pm
And who cares if Bolton is gone? He always seemed like a war-mongering psychopath to me, but that's not based on any substantive conversations that I've had with him. If the president decides that an advisor is no longer the right fit, he should get rid of him. Isn't that what the American people wanted when they voted for him?
I don't think a quality attribute of a President is how readily he fires people who no longer fit his mercurial whims. Certainly the Constitution doesn't say anything about that.

The problem with Trump is that no one of quality is going to want to serve under him. You'd have to be a complete idiot / masochist to want to have him as a boss.

So it'll just be Trump alone in a room with a little red button.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by stuper1 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:42 pm

That's your read of the situation.

My read is that the guy has made billions of dollars during his lifetime. Have you ever seen someone do something like that without being able to work with other people? We know oh so little about what really goes on in politics. Basically everything we get comes third- or fourth-hand and through a media filter.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:47 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:33 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:59 pm
And who cares if Bolton is gone? He always seemed like a war-mongering psychopath to me, but that's not based on any substantive conversations that I've had with him. If the president decides that an advisor is no longer the right fit, he should get rid of him. Isn't that what the American people wanted when they voted for him?
I don't think a quality attribute of a President is how readily he fires people who no longer fit his mercurial whims. Certainly the Constitution doesn't say anything about that.
Actually the Constitution does say something about that, namely:

"The executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. " (Article II, section 1)

Of course there is more about how he is elected, who is eligible, appointments with the advice and consent of the Senate, and so on.

But none of that changes the fact that the powers of the executive branch are vested in him.
Legally, he is the executive branch, just as in England, legally the King is England.
Anyone who serves in the executive branch gets power only by delegation from the President.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by stuper1 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:41 am

Yup, and remember that Trump just fires people. Obama was more likely to have people offed with a drone strike -- judge, jury, and executioner.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:18 am

Ah, the old "King Can Do No Wrong" chestnut.

Have all drone strikes ended with Trump?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:31 am

stuper1 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:41 am
Yup, and remember that Trump just fires people. Obama was more likely to have people offed with a drone strike -- judge, jury, and executioner.
Trump expanded drone strikes and the Afghan war and vetoed ending the Yemen war.

You’re really a great example of how a fucking moron could get elected President.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:43 am

stuper1 wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:42 pm
That's your read of the situation.

My read is that the guy has made billions of dollars during his lifetime. Have you ever seen someone do something like that without being able to work with other people? We know oh so little about what really goes on in politics. Basically everything we get comes third- or fourth-hand and through a media filter.
He must've made billions (but we don't know because his finances have never been released) so he must work well with others. Wow, that is a stretch. Making billions is not a measure of much.

"Prosecutors estimated the size of the (Madoff) fraud to be $64.8 billion, based on the amounts in the accounts of Madoff's 4,800 clients as of November 30, 2008."
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:56 am

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_of ... erformance
A 2016 analysis of Trump's business career in The Economist concluded that his performance since 1985 had been "mediocre compared with the stock market and property in New York."[42] A subsequent analysis in The Washington Post similarly noted that Trump's estimated net worth of $100 million in 1978 would have increased to $6 billion by 2016 if he had invested it in a typical retirement fund, and concluded that "Trump is a mix of braggadocio, business failures, and real success."[43]
O0 He should have just bought Vanguard's 2015 Target Retirement Fund!
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by stuper1 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:06 am

I feel very confident in saying that he's not an idiot.

If I were a voting person, which I'm not, the main criterion I would vote on is just this: is this person likely to make the government bigger or smaller? The more areas that government infiltrates, the worse off we are. I know we'll never be back to a small government, but at least hopefully the scope creep can slow down.

Based on that criterion, I would vote for Trump over Biden, Sanders, Warren, or Harris.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by shekels » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:25 am

moda0306 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:31 am
stuper1 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:41 am
Yup, and remember that Trump just fires people. Obama was more likely to have people offed with a drone strike -- judge, jury, and executioner.
Trump expanded drone strikes and the Afghan war and vetoed ending the Yemen war.

You’re really a great example of how a fucking moron could get elected President.
Do you have Hard Data, and not just someones Opinion/Guess on drone strike/ death toll?

Drone strike Casualty Reports have been cancelled.

Also when Trump vetoed ending the Yemen war, why did not CONgress succeed in overturning the Veto?
https://www.justsecurity.org/63855/gett ... n-succeed/

Another question, is how many American Troops are stationed or have Died in Yemen during Yemen's Civil War?

Now the Afghan war has been going on for 18 YEARS... Do you just turn out the lights and go home?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:03 am

shekels wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:25 am
moda0306 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:31 am
stuper1 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:41 am
Yup, and remember that Trump just fires people. Obama was more likely to have people offed with a drone strike -- judge, jury, and executioner.
Trump expanded drone strikes and the Afghan war and vetoed ending the Yemen war.

You’re really a great example of how a fucking moron could get elected President.
Do you have Hard Data, and not just someones Opinion/Guess on drone strike/ death toll?

Drone strike Casualty Reports have been cancelled.

Also when Trump vetoed ending the Yemen war, why did not CONgress succeed in overturning the Veto?
https://www.justsecurity.org/63855/gett ... n-succeed/

Another question, is how many American Troops are stationed or have Died in Yemen during Yemen's Civil War?
moda has posted this link in an earlier thread:
moda0306 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:15 am
Trump also expanded the war in Afghanistan...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47480207
"During Mr Obama's eight years in office, 1,878 drone strikes were carried out, according to researchers. Since Mr Trump was elected in 2016, there have been 2,243 drone strikes." It doesn't say where she got those numbers from. Several stories about drone strikes reference a Daily Beast article, which states that it uses numbers provided by CENTCOM and the Bureau Of Investigative Journalism. It looks like you can comb through the press releases on www.centcom.mil and add up how many drone strikes they acknowledge, but I don't feel like doing it.

On the Bureau Of Investigative Journalism's drone strike site, setting the parameters to # of strikes since Jan 2017 gives these results:

6 Pakistan
166 Yemen (these were relatively high at the beginning of Trump's term, but haven't been above 15 a month since April 2017)
98 Somolia
4582 Afghanistan
4852 Total

Their numbers look suspect though. For instance, here is one example of a strike:
An airstrike in Badakhshan killed 16 Taliban fighters, Khaama Press reported - though it was not clear whether US or Afghan forces were responsible.

The Ministry of Defence reportedly said that security forces conducted the strike in the Wardoj district.

While the report says that the security forces conducted the strike, we cannot definitely rule out US involvement as the security forces often call in US air support.

Khaama Press did explicitly give a date for this strike so we have recorded it as the date that it was reported on.

Type of strike: Possible US strike
Location: Wardoj district, Badakhshan province
Reference: Khaama Press
They're very transparent, which I am grateful for because it helps me determine that this isn't something I can trust (or, not without going over each incident in detail).
shekels wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:25 am
Now the Afghan war has been going on for 18 YEARS... Do you just turn out the lights and go home?
That's kind of what we've been doing. When I was in Afghanistan, we briefly conducted operations out of a semi-abandonded outpost. It still had all the generators and huts and stuff like that, but nobody was using it. We were just paying some dudes to watch it. It was nerve-wracking as fuck in there because we had no idea if the guards had let insurgents emplace booby traps or infiltration points or map it out for indirect fire or what have you. When we were done I can't remember if we turned it over to the ANA or if we airlifted all the recoverable shit back to the big FOB. Also, I believe every base/outpost I was on except Bagram has been closed down or turned over to the ANA, which is as close to turning out the lights and leaving as you'd think.
One horse can carry 125 kg on its back, but it can drag 2500 kg on a cart. If it pulls a barge along a river, it can drag 30,000 kg, 30 tonnes, and it can drag 50 tonnes if the weight is on a barge in quiet water, i.e., on a canal.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:58 pm

ANA - Afghan Nat'l Army, I guess.
FOB - ?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by D1984 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:27 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:58 pm
ANA - Afghan Nat'l Army, I guess.
FOB - ?
FOB = Forward Operating Base
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:14 pm

Aha, thanks
—-

Headline in WSJ today:

“Slow Growth Hasn’t Hurt Trump in Key Midwest Counties
While local job growth lags behind the nation’s, president’s approval rating has risen since 2017”

Hmm
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:55 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:14 pm
Aha, thanks
Sorry about that. Also, COPS are combat outposts, "terps" are interpreters, RAID is a camera on a pole, and the donkeys are frightened.
Headline in WSJ today:

“Slow Growth Hasn’t Hurt Trump in Key Midwest Counties
While local job growth lags behind the nation’s, president’s approval rating has risen since 2017”

Hmm
*shrug*
One horse can carry 125 kg on its back, but it can drag 2500 kg on a cart. If it pulls a barge along a river, it can drag 30,000 kg, 30 tonnes, and it can drag 50 tonnes if the weight is on a barge in quiet water, i.e., on a canal.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:19 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLM9p8m7BBM

Strong ad work by the Republicans. Have they ever made an ad this good, or relevant?
One horse can carry 125 kg on its back, but it can drag 2500 kg on a cart. If it pulls a barge along a river, it can drag 30,000 kg, 30 tonnes, and it can drag 50 tonnes if the weight is on a barge in quiet water, i.e., on a canal.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:30 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:19 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLM9p8m7BBM

Strong ad work by the Republicans. Have they ever made an ad this good, or relevant?
There was one like this, although I could have sworn it had lions. At least, it was longer.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_s71-Q2XBZg
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