Will Trump be Re-elected?

[jhogue]

The figure of 172.2% rise in real median household net worth from 1972 to present was cited in the op-ed in Saturday's Wall Street Journal (3/18/2019, p.A15) "The Myth of 'Wage Stagnation,'"authored by Phil Gramm and John Early, with link posted up thread from here. I did not double-check their figures, but I would note that Early was formerly assistant commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Do you think he is mistaken? Perhaps fast and loose with the figures??

[dualstow]

I detest China's present party-led corrupt police state, but Chinese officials do not see themselves as trying to displace the USA as global hegemon. Rather, they see themselves as trying to secure their rightful place in their region and the world.

I keep reading the same, mostly in Foreign Affairs. Many experts think, if anything, China is focusing on hegemony in Asia.

[pmward]

I detest China's present party-led corrupt police state, but Chinese officials do not see themselves as trying to displace the USA as global hegemon. Rather, they see themselves as trying to secure their rightful place in their region and the world.

I keep reading the same, mostly in Foreign Affairs. Many experts think, if anything, China is focusing on hegemony in Asia.

Oh I definitely think that is a logical step in the progression, but it's not the end game. China is not playing for a silver medal. They are aiming for the gold. In a timely pop culture reference "when you choose to play the game of thrones, you win or you die". Unlike most other countries, they are patient have time on their side. They don't have to rush. Xi has the luxury of being able to afford to pick and choose the hands he wants to play and when.

[dualstow]

I agree. Of course Xi will be dead before they go for the gold.
Iran has patience, too, if you believe Robert Baer’s “The Devil We Know.” (I do).

[boglerdude]

Good luck to them. We need as many rich, educated Chinese as possible, to do biotech/cure cancer

[dualstow]

with powdered black rhino horn and pangolin scales.
(sorry, couldn’t resist).

[jhogue]

I detest China's present party-led corrupt police state, but Chinese officials do not see themselves as trying to displace the USA as global hegemon. Rather, they see themselves as trying to secure their rightful place in their region and the world.

I keep reading the same, mostly in Foreign Affairs. Many experts think, if anything, China is focusing on hegemony in Asia.

Oh I definitely think that is a logical step in the progression, but it's not the end game. China is not playing for a silver medal. They are aiming for the gold. In a timely pop culture reference "when you choose to play the game of thrones, you win or you die". Unlike most other countries, they are patient have time on their side. They don't have to rush. Xi has the luxury of being able to afford to pick and choose the hands he wants to play and when.

Once upon a time, I used to hear that the Russians were 10 feet tall. Now it is those insidious Masters of the East who have replaced the Evil Soviets. I am not buying into another Cold War. Consider the following:

If you were a rich oil sheik, would you want to get paid in dollar-denominated futures or these fancy new Chinese yuan-denominated futures?

If you had a Ph.D. in computer science from MIT and came from an impoverished 3rd world country and had a choice between taking an American passport and a Chinese passport, which would you choose?

If you had a $10,000,000 PP, what % would you invest in the PRC vs. the USA?

(Come to think of it, we should ask Tyler if he can do a Chinese PP for us. The results are bound to be interesting.)

[pmward]

If you were a rich oil sheik, would you want to get paid in dollar-denominated futures or these fancy new Chinese yuan-denominated futures?

If you had a Ph.D. in computer science from MIT and came from an impoverished 3rd world country and had a choice between taking an American passport and a Chinese passport, which would you choose?

If you had a $10,000,000 PP, what % would you invest in the PRC vs. the USA?

The choice is obvious in these today. Key word "today". China is taking steps to supplant us over the coming years to decades. Just the mere fact that they are taking these steps has put them on the radar as being a threat. Not to mention the cyber warfare that both countries have been involved in for years, as well as the technology and economic warfare we are starting to go down. All of these things from both countries are aggressive and combative. They also seem to be escalating over time.

I do agree China data would be cool, though I don't know how easy it would be to compile.

[ochotona]

If you had a Ph.D. in computer science from MIT and came from an impoverished 3rd world country and had a choice between taking an American passport and a Chinese passport, which would you choose?

If you had a $10,000,000 PP, what % would you invest in the PRC vs. the USA?

(Come to think of it, we should ask Tyler if he can do a Chinese PP for us. The results are bound to be interesting.)

Chinese people still want to get out of China, and get good passports. Can, Aus, NZ, USA. I'm also concerned that all of a sudden the EM ETF indices have such a huge China weighting. I'm sure most EM retail investors aren't aware of the recent change.

[jhogue]

I think that there are all kinds of problems lurking in emerging market index ETFs.

The overweighting of China is one problem, but there are others as well: In what sense are countries like South Korea (12.5% of EEM) or Hong Kong (1.06% of EEM) "emerging" markets?

[dualstow]

moda, what is your take on impeachment?

- A strategy for preventing Republican victory in the next election?
- A lost cause?
- Other?

[jacksonM]

moda, what is your take on impeachment?

- A strategy for preventing Republican victory in the next election?
- A lost cause?
- Other?

I don't know about Moda but I vote for....

- Democrats need to get their heads out of their asses

[WiseOne]

My vote goes to "It will backfire spectacularly when Barr reports on his investigation into the origins of the Russia probe." As in, they keep forgetting that the laws they're trying to stretch to achieve the desired outcome (booting Trump from office) apply to Democrats just as readily as to Republicans.

I suspect that Nancy Pelosi understands this very well, which is why she won't actually move forward with impeachment. Note that most of her efforts currently are aimed at discrediting Barr. He's the real danger to the Democratic party, not Trump.

[jhogue]

I think that Nancy Pelosi is a vote counter. She has the House, but she does not have the votes in the Senate to throw Trump out. Her whole purpose in keeping the Trump/Russia investigations on simmer is to continue to dirty up Trump and the Republicans for 2020.

I am not counting Biden as a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination. Creepy Joe is so prone to stumbling on stage that I can imagine combined attacks from Pocahontas and Crazy Bernie could make Dems (still smarting from Hillary's weak and lackluster campaign) look to someone who shows in Iowa and New Hampshire that they are better on the campaign trail.

[jacksonM]

Wishing DJT a belated happy birthday. Just heard he turned 73 yesterday. I turned 70 4 days before and can't even imagine taking on the challenges he is faced with at that age.

He's got Iran, North Korea, Russia, China, the border crisis, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, not to mention a significant number of Americans, along with the media cheering them on, thinking he should be executed for treason and probably hoping to watch it live on TV.

Not my idea of how to spend my golden years but more power to him.

[Cortopassi]

Guess he's done "making" America great, now he's "keeping" it great.

Trump on if he's not re-elected:

**The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go....However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT

Hmmm... Wonder what happens if that crash is before Nov of next year.... certainly it will be the democrats fault.

But...maybe he'll change the constitution....

**The good news is that at the end of 6 years, after America has been made GREAT again and I leave the beautiful White House (do you think the people would demand that I stay longer? KEEP AMERICA GREAT),

Nobody knows nothin' like Trump.

<sarcasm throughout>

[moda0306]

Guess he's done "making" America great, now he's "keeping" it great.

Trump on if he's not re-elected:

**The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go....However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT

Hmmm... Wonder what happens if that crash is before Nov of next year.... certainly it will be the democrats fault.

But...maybe he'll change the constitution....

**The good news is that at the end of 6 years, after America has been made GREAT again and I leave the beautiful White House (do you think the people would demand that I stay longer? KEEP AMERICA GREAT),

Nobody knows nothin' like Trump.

<sarcasm throughout>

You have to look at his skills though... m'fer may not know how to "make deals" but he sure knows how to pick an ovary.

[flyingpylon]

Here's a challenge for anyone that is relatively certain that there's nothing Trump could do or say to change their opinion about him:

Ignore him for a month or two. At the end, see if your life was better or worse during that time. Then move forward as you wish.

[Maddy]

I'm convinced that many people would sooner sacrifice their happiness and prosperity than forgo their insane obsession with Trump. In fact, I think Trump has become a one-size-fits-all excuse for many people for their failure to do anything productive with their lives.

[dualstow]

I agree, Maddy. Hey, what do you think about having a cabin as your avatar, btw?

A good friend of mine spends way too much time moaning about Trump. I'm not a fan, but I had to remind my friend that moaning is not going to solve anything, and it brings other people down.

I do like reading level-headed, balanced articles on Trump. I wish I could post Stephen Kotkin's full article from the most recent 'Foreign Affairs'. It's mostly a criticism of the Mueller report, but here are a couple excerpts.

Trump’s flaws and transgressions are now well documented. Yet he has not perpetrated a catastrophe remotely on the scale of the Iraq war or the global financial crisis.
...
Trump’s opponents, meanwhile, would have to admit that their portrait of him as a singular threat to the republic lacks context and perspective. (Imagine, for example, if a special counsel had investigated President Lyndon Johnson’s campaigns and White House years while Johnson was still in office: the results would not have been pretty.)

This link is no good if you don't have a subscription. I'm merely citing my references:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... can-hustle

Who is the author? https://history.princeton.edu/people/stephen-kotkin

[Cortopassi]

I generally do not have issue with what Trump is doing.

I have a huge issue in the way he goes about what he's doing.

The Bushes got us into multiple wars that cost trillions and thousands of lives, but they were presidential about it. It sounds totally stupid, I know.

But take the latest with Iran for example. It is (IMO) mainly because of Trump and how he approaches things and blatantly lies and twists things that so many more around the world are thinking the tanker attacks were a false flag and can't take the US's word on anything.

A lot will say that he couldn't get done what he has if he didn't use his style. Possibly true. Doesn't mean I have to like it. I don't obsess about it, but it pains me that Americans can't agree on damn near anything anymore.

[dualstow]

I vacillate between your viewpoint, Corto, and the feeling that it's refreshing to have a Kim Jong Eun-level crazy person in the White House who keeps the rest of the world guessing. The latter feeling, however, is fleeting.

[Maddy]

I agree, Maddy. Hey, what do you think about having a cabin as your avatar, btw?

I used to have one, but a couple of years ago it disappeared. Never could figure out how to resurrect it.

[Xan]

There was a forum transition (the one before last, I think?) in which the avatars were all lost. It's easy for me to think that wouldn't have happened on my watch, but I don't know the issues that were involved. Maddy's cabin and Moda's Matthew Lesko are together in the ether somewhere. Maddy, I do hope you'll find a nice cabin picture and replace it.

[dualstow]

https://www.123rf.com/photo_61474530_st ... cabin.html