Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
15
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
5
8%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 65
pmward
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pmward » Tue May 21, 2019 7:44 pm

jhogue wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:17 pm
If you were a rich oil sheik, would you want to get paid in dollar-denominated futures or these fancy new Chinese yuan-denominated futures?

If you had a Ph.D. in computer science from MIT and came from an impoverished 3rd world country and had a choice between taking an American passport and a Chinese passport, which would you choose?

If you had a $10,000,000 PP, what % would you invest in the PRC vs. the USA?
The choice is obvious in these today. Key word "today". China is taking steps to supplant us over the coming years to decades. Just the mere fact that they are taking these steps has put them on the radar as being a threat. Not to mention the cyber warfare that both countries have been involved in for years, as well as the technology and economic warfare we are starting to go down. All of these things from both countries are aggressive and combative. They also seem to be escalating over time.

I do agree China data would be cool, though I don't know how easy it would be to compile.
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ochotona
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Tue May 21, 2019 9:01 pm

jhogue wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:17 pm
If you had a Ph.D. in computer science from MIT and came from an impoverished 3rd world country and had a choice between taking an American passport and a Chinese passport, which would you choose?

If you had a $10,000,000 PP, what % would you invest in the PRC vs. the USA?

(Come to think of it, we should ask Tyler if he can do a Chinese PP for us. The results are bound to be interesting.)
Chinese people still want to get out of China, and get good passports. Can, Aus, NZ, USA. I'm also concerned that all of a sudden the EM ETF indices have such a huge China weighting. I'm sure most EM retail investors aren't aware of the recent change.
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jhogue
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Wed May 22, 2019 1:38 pm

I think that there are all kinds of problems lurking in emerging market index ETFs.

The overweighting of China is one problem, but there are others as well: In what sense are countries like South Korea (12.5% of EEM) or Hong Kong (1.06% of EEM) "emerging" markets?
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:53 am

moda, what is your take on impeachment?

- A strategy for preventing Republican victory in the next election?
- A lost cause?
- Other?
https://www.reddit.com/r/TactiCat
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jacksonM » Tue Jun 11, 2019 3:23 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:53 am
moda, what is your take on impeachment?

- A strategy for preventing Republican victory in the next election?
- A lost cause?
- Other?
I don't know about Moda but I vote for....

- Democrats need to get their heads out of their asses
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sophie
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by sophie » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:02 am

My vote goes to "It will backfire spectacularly when Barr reports on his investigation into the origins of the Russia probe." As in, they keep forgetting that the laws they're trying to stretch to achieve the desired outcome (booting Trump from office) apply to Democrats just as readily as to Republicans.

I suspect that Nancy Pelosi understands this very well, which is why she won't actually move forward with impeachment. Note that most of her efforts currently are aimed at discrediting Barr. He's the real danger to the Democratic party, not Trump.
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jhogue
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:10 am

I think that Nancy Pelosi is a vote counter. She has the House, but she does not have the votes in the Senate to throw Trump out. Her whole purpose in keeping the Trump/Russia investigations on simmer is to continue to dirty up Trump and the Republicans for 2020.

I am not counting Biden as a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination. Creepy Joe is so prone to stumbling on stage that I can imagine combined attacks from Pocahontas and Crazy Bernie could make Dems (still smarting from Hillary's weak and lackluster campaign) look to someone who shows in Iowa and New Hampshire that they are better on the campaign trail.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jacksonM » Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:29 pm

Wishing DJT a belated happy birthday. Just heard he turned 73 yesterday. I turned 70 4 days before and can't even imagine taking on the challenges he is faced with at that age.

He's got Iran, North Korea, Russia, China, the border crisis, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, not to mention a significant number of Americans, along with the media cheering them on, thinking he should be executed for treason and probably hoping to watch it live on TV.

Not my idea of how to spend my golden years but more power to him.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:43 pm

Guess he's done "making" America great, now he's "keeping" it great.

Trump on if he's not re-elected:

**The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go....However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT

Hmmm... Wonder what happens if that crash is before Nov of next year.... certainly it will be the democrats fault.

But...maybe he'll change the constitution....

**The good news is that at the end of 6 years, after America has been made GREAT again and I leave the beautiful White House (do you think the people would demand that I stay longer? KEEP AMERICA GREAT),

Nobody knows nothin' like Trump.

<sarcasm throughout>
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moda0306
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:09 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:43 pm
Guess he's done "making" America great, now he's "keeping" it great.

Trump on if he's not re-elected:

**The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go....However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT

Hmmm... Wonder what happens if that crash is before Nov of next year.... certainly it will be the democrats fault.

But...maybe he'll change the constitution....

**The good news is that at the end of 6 years, after America has been made GREAT again and I leave the beautiful White House (do you think the people would demand that I stay longer? KEEP AMERICA GREAT),

Nobody knows nothin' like Trump.

<sarcasm throughout>
You have to look at his skills though... m'fer may not know how to "make deals" but he sure knows how to pick an ovary.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by flyingpylon » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:47 am

Here's a challenge for anyone that is relatively certain that there's nothing Trump could do or say to change their opinion about him:

Ignore him for a month or two. At the end, see if your life was better or worse during that time. Then move forward as you wish.
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Maddy
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Maddy » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:06 am

I'm convinced that many people would sooner sacrifice their happiness and prosperity than forgo their insane obsession with Trump. In fact, I think Trump has become a one-size-fits-all excuse for many people for their failure to do anything productive with their lives.
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