Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
15
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
5
8%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 65
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sophie
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by sophie » Mon May 20, 2019 8:47 am

Trump's aggressive posture towards Chinese telecomm firms like Huawei is having a lot of repercussions. These are widely reported but when I started hunting for the administration's rationale for instituting the blacklist, there was very little info to be found. Just a few comments about Trump being unpredictable.

Except this 2012 NYT article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/us/u ... hreat.html
In the latest development to highlight the sensitive terrain that the United States and China are navigating on economic issues, a House committee issued a blistering bipartisan report on Monday that accused two of China’s largest telecommunications companies of being arms of the government that had stolen intellectual property from American companies and could potentially spy on Americans.

The House Intelligence Committee said that after a yearlong investigation it had come to the conclusion that the Chinese businesses, Huawei Technologies and ZTE Inc., were a national security threat because of their attempts to extract sensitive information from American companies and their loyalties to the Chinese government.
There was never any action following this report. So is the blacklist perhaps a reasonable (though ham-handed, as per usual) action after all? I guess it depends on how bad the effect on US tech companies is in the long run, compared to the activities outlined in the report (which it appears, makes Russia's hacking of the DNC server look like small potatoes in comparison).
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pmward » Mon May 20, 2019 12:33 pm

sophie wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 8:47 am
Trump's aggressive posture towards Chinese telecomm firms like Huawei is having a lot of repercussions. These are widely reported but when I started hunting for the administration's rationale for instituting the blacklist, there was very little info to be found. Just a few comments about Trump being unpredictable.

Except this 2012 NYT article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/us/u ... hreat.html
In the latest development to highlight the sensitive terrain that the United States and China are navigating on economic issues, a House committee issued a blistering bipartisan report on Monday that accused two of China’s largest telecommunications companies of being arms of the government that had stolen intellectual property from American companies and could potentially spy on Americans.

The House Intelligence Committee said that after a yearlong investigation it had come to the conclusion that the Chinese businesses, Huawei Technologies and ZTE Inc., were a national security threat because of their attempts to extract sensitive information from American companies and their loyalties to the Chinese government.
There was never any action following this report. So is the blacklist perhaps a reasonable (though ham-handed, as per usual) action after all? I guess it depends on how bad the effect on US tech companies is in the long run, compared to the activities outlined in the report (which it appears, makes Russia's hacking of the DNC server look like small potatoes in comparison).
I think the only part of the "trade war" that makes sense to me is this, there is legit theft of IP and intelligence going on that is a threat to national security. I think what we have brewing is not a trade war, but a Cold War between China and the U.S. that has been building for many years. Instead of being in the form of a nuclear arms race like we had with the Soviet Cold War we instead have a Cold War through cyber, technology, and now trade/economic warfare. Both sides also seem to be willing to inflict pain on themselves in order to harm the other.

As Ray Dalio says, anytime you have two countries that are close enough to being the top power it can't help but lead to warfare of some kind or another as a test of strength; it's innate human nature that the current leader feels threatened by the upcoming power, and the upcoming power wants to try to assert itself at the top of the pack by displacing the current leader.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Mon May 20, 2019 2:51 pm

1. War between great powers is not inevitable. The USA surpassed the UK in GNP in the 1880s, becoming the world's leading economic power, but the two have never fought a war against one another since then. Since then, the USA/UK relationship has been characterized by cooperation rather than conflict.

2. I detest China's present party-led corrupt police state, but Chinese officials do not see themselves as trying to displace the USA as global hegemon. Rather, they see themselves as trying to secure their rightful place in their region and the world. They are also mindful that China's weakness in the early 20th century paved the way for Imperial Japan's murderous occupation of China from 1937-1945. Hard to argue with that.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pmward » Mon May 20, 2019 3:42 pm

jhogue wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 2:51 pm
1. War between great powers is not inevitable. The USA surpassed the UK in GNP in the 1880s, becoming the world's leading economic power, but the two have never fought a war against one another since then. Since then, the USA/UK relationship has been characterized by cooperation rather than conflict.
While the UK and US have not directly fought in the modern era, the U.S. being key in winning WWI and WWII for them kind of displaced them by default, especially with Bretton Woods agreement. Up until Bretton Woods the U.K. had hegemony/reserve currency status, so we did not surpass them in the 1880s. In Dalio's theory once a country asserts itself at the top of the food chain by winning a big war other countries back off and cede power for a time. However, what caused a lot of the turmoil of WWI and WWII? It was countries in Europe and Asia having this fight over power, which also plays right into Dalio's theories.
jhogue wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 2:51 pm
Chinese officials do not see themselves as trying to displace the USA as global hegemon. Rather, they see themselves as trying to secure their rightful place in their region and the world.
I wouldn't be so sure about this. Case in point "Made in China 2025". Also see how they are directly trying to challenge the U.S.'s hegemony by having an oil contract denoted in RMB. They are so far the first and only country to challenge the petrodollar outright. They have also been a huge buyer of gold over the last 10 years. You better believe they are trying to position themselves as the next world reserve currency, especially since all foreign countries have been less than thrilled with the U.S. dollar ever since the GFC (and the current run the USD has been on the last few years has not been helping us out any in this regard).

China is not playing to compete, they are playing to win. China has the ability to be patient and play the long game; it's their style. So they just keep taking the steps to be in a position to capitalize on any future weakness we show. They are also banking on the fact that Trumps time is limited, even if he gets a second term. They are more than willing to wait out a different president to negotiate with. The Trump administration is the only one on borrowed time. Our administration time limits are the reason we've always gotten a raw trade deal from China in the past, and why we will have to accept a raw deal from them again in the future.
Last edited by pmward on Mon May 20, 2019 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by D1984 » Mon May 20, 2019 4:37 pm

jhogue wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 7:17 am
No doubt former US senator Phil Gramm has a partisan axe to grind, but he has some impressive company. I seem to recall that Alan Greenspan also favored a re-calibration of the BLS indices a number of years ago. If I am not mistaken, he suggested that the current indices overstated inflation and would cause a rise in entitlement expenditures in the federal budget. Prophetic, isn't it?

I still find it bizarre that politicians can cry that there has been nothing but wage stagnation for the past 50 years and yet real median net worth in this country has increased by 172% in the same time period. How are those simultaneous trends even possible?
Where are you getting your data for median net worth? The latest Survey Of Consumer Finances (the Fed does them every three years) from 2017 (for 2016) shows median family net worth at $97,300 ; see https://www.federalreserve.gov/publicat ... /scf17.pdf

The survey above does show that median net worth did increase around 16.3% from 2013 to 2016 but stayed flat or even dropped a bit from 2010 to 2013. For data from 1988 to 2010 see http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/wow%E2%80 ... -the-hole/ and notice that the Great Recession chopped off some two decades' worth of net worth gains.

Since the above data start around 1988 or 1989 and go to 2010 I did try to find some pre-1988 data; if you go to https://www2.census.gov/library/publica ... p70-22.pdf it shows a median household net worth of $35,752 in 1988 (in 1988 dollars) and $37,012 in 1984 (in 1988 dollars). If you go to the Minneapolis Fed's website and see what $37,012 in 1988 dollars equals in 2016 dollars (2016 dollars to try and compare accurately with the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances data from above) then you get $75,100 in 2016 dollars; that's only an increase of 29.56% and a far cry from 172%. Unless there was some huge boom in median net worth from 1973 to 1984 (doubtful as that was the time of two big recessions--1973-75 and 1980-82--and double-digit inflation and stagflation) I don't see how median net worth could've increased that much.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Mon May 20, 2019 5:11 pm

The figure of 172.2% rise in real median household net worth from 1972 to present was cited in the op-ed in Saturday's Wall Street Journal (3/18/2019, p.A15) "The Myth of 'Wage Stagnation,'"authored by Phil Gramm and John Early, with link posted up thread from here. I did not double-check their figures, but I would note that Early was formerly assistant commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Do you think he is mistaken? Perhaps fast and loose with the figures??
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Mon May 20, 2019 6:13 pm

jhogue wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 2:51 pm
I detest China's present party-led corrupt police state, but Chinese officials do not see themselves as trying to displace the USA as global hegemon. Rather, they see themselves as trying to secure their rightful place in their region and the world.


I keep reading the same, mostly in Foreign Affairs. Many experts think, if anything, China is focusing on hegemony in Asia.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pmward » Mon May 20, 2019 8:50 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 6:13 pm
jhogue wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 2:51 pm
I detest China's present party-led corrupt police state, but Chinese officials do not see themselves as trying to displace the USA as global hegemon. Rather, they see themselves as trying to secure their rightful place in their region and the world.


I keep reading the same, mostly in Foreign Affairs. Many experts think, if anything, China is focusing on hegemony in Asia.
Oh I definitely think that is a logical step in the progression, but it's not the end game. China is not playing for a silver medal. They are aiming for the gold. In a timely pop culture reference "when you choose to play the game of thrones, you win or you die". Unlike most other countries, they are patient have time on their side. They don't have to rush. Xi has the luxury of being able to afford to pick and choose the hands he wants to play and when.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Mon May 20, 2019 9:19 pm

I agree. Of course Xi will be dead before they go for the gold.
Iran has patience, too, if you believe Robert Baer’s “The Devil We Know.” (I do).
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by boglerdude » Mon May 20, 2019 10:17 pm

Good luck to them. We need as many rich, educated Chinese as possible, to do biotech/cure cancer
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Mon May 20, 2019 10:59 pm

with powdered black rhino horn and pangolin scales.
(sorry, couldn’t resist).
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Tue May 21, 2019 7:17 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 8:50 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 6:13 pm
jhogue wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 2:51 pm
I detest China's present party-led corrupt police state, but Chinese officials do not see themselves as trying to displace the USA as global hegemon. Rather, they see themselves as trying to secure their rightful place in their region and the world.


I keep reading the same, mostly in Foreign Affairs. Many experts think, if anything, China is focusing on hegemony in Asia.
Oh I definitely think that is a logical step in the progression, but it's not the end game. China is not playing for a silver medal. They are aiming for the gold. In a timely pop culture reference "when you choose to play the game of thrones, you win or you die". Unlike most other countries, they are patient have time on their side. They don't have to rush. Xi has the luxury of being able to afford to pick and choose the hands he wants to play and when.
Once upon a time, I used to hear that the Russians were 10 feet tall. Now it is those insidious Masters of the East who have replaced the Evil Soviets. I am not buying into another Cold War. Consider the following:

If you were a rich oil sheik, would you want to get paid in dollar-denominated futures or these fancy new Chinese yuan-denominated futures?

If you had a Ph.D. in computer science from MIT and came from an impoverished 3rd world country and had a choice between taking an American passport and a Chinese passport, which would you choose?

If you had a $10,000,000 PP, what % would you invest in the PRC vs. the USA?

(Come to think of it, we should ask Tyler if he can do a Chinese PP for us. The results are bound to be interesting.)
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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