The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Mon May 13, 2019 9:16 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:03 am
No talk about China's threat to dump treasuries?
Well, I guess this has been thoroughly explored over the years.

I do wish MediumTex were here.
There's a short squeeze going on with dollars internationally right how, which is why the dollar has been shooting up lately. The Eurodollar markets have been really tight, and this is the market where almost all international U.S. dollar currency for trade is acquired. By China selling it actually would be a good thing, as it would add extra supply to balance out the demand and allow the dollar to pull back which would be a very good thing. Funny thing is Trump has been wanting the dollar to drop, so their threat is actually helps Trump's agenda, so it's not much of a threat at all. Also, it could help bond yields to get up off of the ground, another really good thing.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8460
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am

I doubt they'll sell anyway. It's just talk.
El Chapo’s family to compensate those who lost relatives in botched arrest. Isn’t that sweet.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Mon May 13, 2019 11:16 am

Yep, more than likely. Also, one needs to think that if they do sell en masse it would drop the price, which would in turn hurt them as well. I think odds are they just let what they own mature vs selling, and only buy as much as they need for trade. They've been building gold for years now, and my thoughts have always been that the reason was to reduce their USD reserves.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Wed May 15, 2019 9:13 am

We are like .5% away in TLT from setting a higher high. Combined with the higher low we set in the pullback over the last couple of months, that would officially be a confirmed new up trend. Who would have thought a year ago when they were raising rates like crazy that we would be potentially entering a new official uptrend in long treasuries now?
Pet Hog
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue May 28, 2013 4:08 pm

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Pet Hog » Wed May 15, 2019 3:39 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 9:13 am
Who would have thought a year ago when they were raising rates like crazy that we would be potentially entering a new official uptrend in long treasuries now?
I think there are many members of this forum who didn't (and still don't) believe "there's nowhere for rates to go but up!"TM I'm happy that I got to add to my STTs at about 2.5%, but my expectation is that they will return to near-zero soon. But I'm happy to be a PP investor and not make predictions.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8460
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Thu May 16, 2019 9:36 am

Very interesting to watch it all play out!
I have no regrets jettisoning my "bad" long-term bonds, but I feel comfortable leaving the rest alone.
El Chapo’s family to compensate those who lost relatives in botched arrest. Isn’t that sweet.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8460
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:53 am

I now have a little regret. Even the worst of my bonds would probably have a 5% gain by now. At least I put the proceeds into cash and not gold.
El Chapo’s family to compensate those who lost relatives in botched arrest. Isn’t that sweet.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:42 pm

Yeah, TLT hit the highest level to day since Oct 2016. Only 6% away from all time highs.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3095
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:17 pm

The yield on the 10 yr T Note is now more or less the same as the yield on the S&P 500. If I were speculating, I'd be looking at dividend paying stocks as a better long term bet than bonds. Maybe VIG.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:41 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:17 pm
The yield on the 10 yr T Note is now more or less the same as the yield on the S&P 500. If I were speculating, I'd be looking at dividend paying stocks as a better long term bet than bonds. Maybe VIG.
I have some hesitations on dividend stocks as well. Look at the P/E ratios. They are historically high. They are no longer "value" stocks. There is more risk there than in the past. One needs to keep this in mind. They are getting paid to take risk.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8460
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:51 pm

Hmm. I’ve been holding dividend-raising stocks since forever, and while I don’t consider that to be speculation, I have to acknowledge all the news reports of people piling into these stocks for yield, setting them up for a big fall. Maybe it’s time to trim, but I have held them through other crashes.

It’s good to get paid while you wait.
pmward wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:41 am
Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:17 pm
The yield on the 10 yr T Note is now more or less the same as the yield on the S&P 500. If I were speculating, I'd be looking at dividend paying stocks as a better long term bet than bonds. Maybe VIG.
I have some hesitations on dividend stocks as well. Look at the P/E ratios. They are historically high. They are no longer "value" stocks. There is more risk there than in the past. One needs to keep this in mind. They are getting paid to take risk.
El Chapo’s family to compensate those who lost relatives in botched arrest. Isn’t that sweet.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:26 am

dualstow wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:51 pm
Hmm. I’ve been holding dividend-raising stocks since forever, and while I don’t consider that to be speculation, I have to acknowledge all the news reports of people piling into these stocks for yield, setting them up for a big fall. Maybe it’s time to trim, but I have held them through other crashes.

It’s good to get paid while you wait.
I personally wouldn't worry about it if I had already purchased them long ago and had a large profit. I mean, they may be close to paying for themselves by now. However, I wouldn't personally throw fresh cash into these at the moment. Dividend stocks and large cap tech are the two sub-types of stocks that have accounted for most of the gains since 2008. Every time the cycle turns the bear market does hit the winners of the past bull harder than the rest, and the last bull winners rarely are the new bull winners. Just some food for thought.
Post Reply