The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:55 pm

ochotona wrote:
Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:24 pm
Dear Lord of Bonds
Pray that Thou 10 year mayest hit 5%
...
For the sake of us sinners in cash and intermediates
...
O0 Good stuff, Ocho.

I still hope that long bonds will soar when stocks come crashing down. I merely gave up some of that protection, or the chance of it, by unloading some bonds. Rising rates are not inevitable, but they sooooo look to be. So much so that I don't mind having just a little extra cash, something that will not soar, but won't sink either.

The strange thing is that I still feel fine at 50% stocks (vp + pp), even after checking what a 50% haircut would look like. (That is, 50% of 50% of my entire savings. A 25% haircut overall). I guess that's recency bias, or at least the psychological pull of recency. When it happens for real, I'm going to be ill.
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barrett
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by barrett » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:36 am

Just jumping in to say that not all recessions are deflationary. One can't necessarily count on bond yields going down (and prices going up) uniformly across a recessionary cycle.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:43 am

My rebalance numbers just had TLT pass Gold/Silver in the amount that has to be put toward the assets to rebalance back to their level.

Since TLT is 25% and G+S is 30% for me, sure means bonds have been sucking lately.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by tim47 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:38 am

Has anyone heard of Street Shares Veteran Business Bonds that cap at 5%? Seems too good to be true. Comments?
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:11 pm

tim47 wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:38 am
Has anyone heard of Street Shares Veteran Business Bonds that cap at 5%? Seems too good to be true. Comments?
Any investment that plays on emotions and affiliations, like "veterans" or "woman owned" or "whites only" or "blacks only" or "'Murica" or "Allahu Akbar" should be avoided. Bernie Madoff's victims were members of his and other synagogues.

It's about cash flows, not emotional manipulations.

Typo error on website. Stay away. "While you support American small businss owners"

Fidelity® Capital & Income Fund pays 4.4% dividend. But... it's Junk Bonds. You OK with Junk Bonds?
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:48 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:11 pm
Typo error on website. Stay away. "While you support American small businss owners"
They can recover from that. I'm thinking a new ad with raucous "USA! USA!" chants looped over the fluttering Stars and Stripes. Say, 7-9 minutes long.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:26 am

ochotona wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:11 pm
Typo error on website. Stay away.

Hah, you sound like me.
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de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:03 pm

Today Kathy Jones of Schwab is suggesting investors buy bonds with 2 to 7 years duration, previously she was suggesting 2 to 5 years.
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:44 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:03 pm
Today Kathy Jones of Schwab is suggesting investors buy bonds with 2 to 7 years duration, previously she was suggesting 2 to 5 years.
You can find a pundit for every duration and permutation.
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:54 pm

Kathy is the guru for bond prudence and reasonableness. If you follow her your bond regrets will be rare. Budd would like her advice, for example.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:22 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:54 pm
Kathy is the guru for bond prudence and reasonableness. If you follow her your bond regrets will be rare. Budd would like her advice, for example.
Thanks, but bonds don't scare me at all since I can manage duration to 5.6 years and have done so since portfolio inception.
That seems to fall nicely between 2 and 7 :)

As an aside I have tracked BND (VG Bond Index ETF) and LTT/Cash (5.6 years) performance and the daily differences are negligible.
Personally I just prefer cash so the barbell over bullet strategy works for me.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:07 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:54 pm
Kathy is the guru for bond prudence and reasonableness. If you follow her your bond regrets will be rare. Budd would like her advice, for example.
I have no regrets about my pp bond holdings.
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de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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