Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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gaddyslapper007
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:42 am

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:56 am
I won’t be buying it myself, but I am still very interested in blockchain. I am curious to see how bitcoin and other crypto currencies fare in the coming decade.

As for small debts, my friends and I use Apple Pay Cash. Love it.
What about blockchain intrigues you?....(other than the function it palys for bitcoin). 2018 should us blockchains suck at pretty much everything except as raw bitcoin settlement layer. Ethereum is the biggest (most used has the most developers) blockchain "style" platform with sidecoins, and smart contracts, etc........and it gets bogged down with kripto-kitties...Blockchain is very inefficient database and massively space wasting.... That's what lighting network is working on solving for bitcoin (off chain settlement at nearly free cost (~.01 cent fee currently)). Blockchain was a catch phrase of 2017-2018.....it will be used for very little out side of Bitcoin settlement.


Sure there are other peer to peer settlement methods (3rd party controlled) .....I was suggesting the idea for an exercise to become familiar with bitcoin for fun / learning sake....you learn by doing. Dip your toes in and put yourself in an uncomfortable situations...learn from experiences.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:31 pm

gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:57 am
dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:47 am

VP puzzle, you mean.
yes....I certainly don't recommend it stand along side Bonds, Gold, Stocks and Cash equally. I encourage learning about it, buy enough that you can afford to lose....use it where accepted, send / receive to friends to settle small debts / credits. (Peer to Peer)…..and hopefully enjoy long term appreciation with use and adoption.

If bitcoin ever to gets to gold parity market cap (~$7trillion I believe)….then I would say it would most definitely deserve a spot equally divided in the standard PP. It is nice function of cash & gold, yet fully independent with no correlation of them both.
It has nothing in common with either gold or cash other than that some people believe it has value, which can be said of virtually anything else as well.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:42 pm

gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:42 am
dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:56 am
I won’t be buying it myself, but I am still very interested in blockchain. I am curious to see how bitcoin and other crypto currencies fare in the coming decade.

As for small debts, my friends and I use Apple Pay Cash. Love it.
What about blockchain intrigues you?....(other than the function it palys for bitcoin). 2018 should us blockchains suck at pretty much everything except as raw bitcoin settlement layer.
One example: a Beijing student was protesting sexual harassment and
Censors banned the shorthand characters used for PKU, but some internet users were able to share the letter by covert methods, including archiving the story with unalterable blockchain technology and spreading the word with flipped screenshots.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/25/asia/chi ... index.html
traveling...
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:14 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:31 pm


It has nothing in common with either gold or cash other than that some people believe it has value, which can be said of virtually anything else as well.
YES!.....exactly!....nothing has value as a universal law....(the universes doesn't give a **** about any of this or your personal rights to life liberty, or pursuit of happiness) Value lives within human imagination only....I like it.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:18 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:42 pm


One example: a Beijing student was protesting sexual harassment and
Censors banned the shorthand characters used for PKU, but some internet users were able to share the letter by covert methods, including archiving the story with unalterable blockchain technology and spreading the word with flipped screenshots.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/25/asia/chi ... index.html
yes! exactly!.....free speech! Really all bitcoin is data form (blockchain) "text" free speech. Bitcoin is trying to become free speech money!.... maybe one way to think of it.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:40 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:48 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:25 pm
Oh boy, good old GDX.
I think every time period from inception the fund has been -ve.
Bought my first batch at 37 and last batch at 18 and change several years ago.
What a peach >:D
The miners have destroyed so much capital...
I meant to say, earlier, I lost plenty of miners. Never really cared about mining stocks until I saw the excitement about them on this forum. But hey, it was my decision. O0
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by sophie » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:24 am

I've always found it a little weird that Bitcoin could both serve as cash and as a wildly speculative investment. I just figured that it was going to have to stabilize before it could mature into a legit cash vehicle.

Sad to have missed the initial joyride though!
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:37 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:24 am
I've always found it a little weird that Bitcoin could both serve as cash and as a wildly speculative investment. I just figured that it was going to have to stabilize before it could mature into a legit cash vehicle.

Sad to have missed the initial joyride though!
Yes I agree. Exactly! Bitcoin price is all we hear about.....the booms and busts. You have to dig deep to find out what it does / can do for humanity. As we've kind of concluded above.....value lives within human imagination shared collectively. If people really understood bitcoin is "free speech text money" and that THEY (the worldwide collective people) say at the same time....Yes! This is what we want....inherent to Bitcoins design (scarcity) value has increased and will be reflected in the price. This is why scarcity was built into the protocol, it provides an incentive to HODL. HODLers are rewarded for their risk. <-- This creates the booms and busts in the early stages. Early adopters get handsomely rewarded during a ramp up...news stories emerge, new buyers come in (uneducated as to why price went up.. AKA greed), Early adopters take profits, new adopters get burned and this goes on and on. Each time bringing more and more adoption to the educated. <-- The Bitcoin mining reward halving events (every four years) engourges / facititales this. Eventually ...given enough time, adoption and economy built around bitcoin...there will be no need to sell. <-- the hope / end goal. Thus the speculative price nature stabilizes and volatility risk is waned.

what is happing in Venezuela right now?.....is their currency really that different than the US dollar?...They are created the same, both backed by debt and the good faith of their government,...they are both paper! The difference lies within our "belief" of value.

Today...Would you rather leave your grandkids $3,500.00 cash, gold, Bonds, VTI, or Bitcoin? Which holds a greater risk / reward chance of providing life changing value...I don't know. But if bitcoin works out in the end.....there are only 21 million coins. Every millionaire today cant even own one (1) even if they wanted to....
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:52 pm

gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:37 am
Today...Would you rather leave your grandkids $3,500.00 cash, gold, Bonds, VTI, or Bitcoin? Which holds a greater risk / reward chance of providing life changing value...I don't know. But if bitcoin works out in the end.....there are only 21 million coins. Every millionaire today cant even own one (1) even if they wanted to....
VTI. Second choice: cash.
traveling...
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by Tortoise » Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:33 pm

sophie wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:24 am
I've always found it a little weird that Bitcoin could both serve as cash and as a wildly speculative investment. I just figured that it was going to have to stabilize before it could mature into a legit cash vehicle.
Doesn't that also apply to gold? People have speculated in gold throughout history, and it has sometimes been used as an actual currency.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:40 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:50 pm
gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:10 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:05 pm
I'm sure Bitcoin will come roaring back soon!
Just like Beanie Babies!
;)
I’m not sure about soon.....my speculation (let’s see how this ages for the sake of fun)....~September 2019 will start a real slow boring new bull run....(bitcoin is dead in the news stories continue).....then mid 2020 will start the next run up a little more excited like...(you’ll start hearing about bitcoin again)......2021 to 2022 next FOMO event and then bitcoin crashes 80% again....deemed dead again....and setttles around $20k.
Once a totally absurd bubble pops, it never comes back. That's because once people realize that it can go down, they stop and ask themselves "What is the actual use value, not the speculative value?" The answer is always "Very little or nothing".

Some examples are tulips, dot-com stocks, Beanie Babies and Bitcoin. There are many others; those are just some of the more famous and/or recent.

The only exception is when such a bubble is reinflated by the government, e.g., the housing market.
Somehow I don't think Bitcoin is going to be among the rare exceptions.

But by all means, sink all you have into it; it will be educational.

As I found out in 1980 when I bought into the silver bubble on the day of the top.
On margin.
This is bad information on Bitcoin.

Which Bitcoin bubble are you referring to?

When it went from $30 to $1?
Or $270 to $40?
Or $1200 to $100?
Or what-happens-to-be-the-current-bubble of $20k to $3k?
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:45 am

gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:32 pm
I’ve read this chat forum (as a visitor) learning about the PP for 5 or 6 years and now. Everyone loves to tweak the PP for performance juice...a tiny portion of Bitcoin does this. Bitcoin wedges nicely in the speculative 10% portion. Rebalance annually and enjoy the ride. Worst case it goes $0. As long as your comfortable with that who cares....the rest is gravey!
Lets get a good name for it:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9347&p=167356&hilit ... 25#p167356
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:54 am

I posted previously about a variety of use cases for Bitcoin. "What problem do I have that crypto is solving?"

See here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=9673&p=173490#p173490

Here is an interesting take on the "speculation/investment" thesis for Bitcoin.

https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john ... ets+v6.pdf
Amidst the indiscriminate speculation, sensationalist and mostly misguided media coverage and roller-coaster price volatility, this paper sets out to consider cryptoassets from the perspective of a rational, long-term investor. As investors, we look for things that generate sustainable, ideally growing economic rent — an economic surplus that will accrete to us. This paper evaluates the extent to which cryptoassets offer the foregoing.
It is an interesting and educational read, regardless of if you are a "true believertm" or a skeptic.

Alternatively, you can keep ignorantly calling it beanie babies.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:49 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:40 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:50 pm
gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:10 pm


I’m not sure about soon.....my speculation (let’s see how this ages for the sake of fun)....~September 2019 will start a real slow boring new bull run....(bitcoin is dead in the news stories continue).....then mid 2020 will start the next run up a little more excited like...(you’ll start hearing about bitcoin again)......2021 to 2022 next FOMO event and then bitcoin crashes 80% again....deemed dead again....and setttles around $20k.
Once a totally absurd bubble pops, it never comes back. That's because once people realize that it can go down, they stop and ask themselves "What is the actual use value, not the speculative value?" The answer is always "Very little or nothing".

Some examples are tulips, dot-com stocks, Beanie Babies and Bitcoin. There are many others; those are just some of the more famous and/or recent.

The only exception is when such a bubble is reinflated by the government, e.g., the housing market.
Somehow I don't think Bitcoin is going to be among the rare exceptions.

But by all means, sink all you have into it; it will be educational.

As I found out in 1980 when I bought into the silver bubble on the day of the top.
On margin.
This is bad information on Bitcoin.

Which Bitcoin bubble are you referring to?

When it went from $30 to $1?
Or $270 to $40?
Or $1200 to $100?
Or what-happens-to-be-the-current-bubble of $20k to $3k?
When it went from 0 to $20k.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:30 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:49 am
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:40 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:50 pm


Once a totally absurd bubble pops, it never comes back. That's because once people realize that it can go down, they stop and ask themselves "What is the actual use value, not the speculative value?" The answer is always "Very little or nothing".

Some examples are tulips, dot-com stocks, Beanie Babies and Bitcoin. There are many others; those are just some of the more famous and/or recent.

The only exception is when such a bubble is reinflated by the government, e.g., the housing market.
Somehow I don't think Bitcoin is going to be among the rare exceptions.

But by all means, sink all you have into it; it will be educational.

As I found out in 1980 when I bought into the silver bubble on the day of the top.
On margin.
This is bad information on Bitcoin.

Which Bitcoin bubble are you referring to?

When it went from $30 to $1?
Or $270 to $40?
Or $1200 to $100?
Or what-happens-to-be-the-current-bubble of $20k to $3k?
When it went from 0 to $20k.
Ok so only the *last* bubble is the bubble? Bitcoin was not in an absurd bubble when it went from $1 to $30 and back to $1? Even though it went up higher and came back down further than the current bubble? Or $10->$270->$40?

If Bitcoin goes to $30k, was "such a bubble reinflated"?
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:03 pm

Majority of bitcoin trading is a hoax, new study finds
New research is casting even more doubt on the legitimacy of bitcoin trading.

An analysis published by Bitwise this week shows that 95 percent of bitcoin spot trading is faked by unregulated exchanges. The survey, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, echoes concerns by regulators that cryptocurrency markets are still ripe for manipulation.

Bitwise, an asset manager in the process of trying to list the first-ever bitcoin exchange traded fund, said it met with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday to discuss its application. As a part of the process, it submitted analysis that could help regulators cut through the noise.

"People looked at cryptocurrency and said this market is a mess, that's because they were looking at data that was manipulated," said Matthew Hougan, global head of research at Bitwise. "When you cut away the echo chamber of these nonsense numbers, it should be an efficient, well-arbitraged market."

The analysis showed that "substantially all of the volume" reported on 71 out of the 81 exchanges was wash trading, a term that describes a person simultaneously selling and buying the same stock, or bitcoin in this case, to create the appearance of activity in the market. In other words, it's not real.

Those exchanges report an aggregated $6 billion in average daily bitcoin volume. The study finds that only $273 million of that is legitimate.
Read the rest here...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/majorit ... finds.html
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:30 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:03 pm
Majority of bitcoin trading is a hoax, new study finds
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/majorit ... finds.html
Read the source version (227 pages) here: https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearc ... 183434.pdf

Good information there. Perhaps a bit inside baseball.

There is a ton of fraud in the crypto world.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:31 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:03 pm
Majority of bitcoin trading is a hoax, new study finds
New research is casting even more doubt on the legitimacy of bitcoin trading.

An analysis published by Bitwise this week shows that 95 percent of bitcoin spot trading is faked by unregulated exchanges. The survey, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, echoes concerns by regulators that cryptocurrency markets are still ripe for manipulation.

Bitwise, an asset manager in the process of trying to list the first-ever bitcoin exchange traded fund, said it met with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday to discuss its application. As a part of the process, it submitted analysis that could help regulators cut through the noise.

"People looked at cryptocurrency and said this market is a mess, that's because they were looking at data that was manipulated," said Matthew Hougan, global head of research at Bitwise. "When you cut away the echo chamber of these nonsense numbers, it should be an efficient, well-arbitraged market."

The analysis showed that "substantially all of the volume" reported on 71 out of the 81 exchanges was wash trading, a term that describes a person simultaneously selling and buying the same stock, or bitcoin in this case, to create the appearance of activity in the market. In other words, it's not real.

Those exchanges report an aggregated $6 billion in average daily bitcoin volume. The study finds that only $273 million of that is legitimate.
Read the rest here...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/majorit ... finds.html
That is actually quite appropriate.

Because the whole notion of Bitcoin as an "investment" is a hoax.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:47 pm

Looks like they’re running back into bitcoin.
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