Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:45 am

gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:32 pm
I’ve read this chat forum (as a visitor) learning about the PP for 5 or 6 years and now. Everyone loves to tweak the PP for performance juice...a tiny portion of Bitcoin does this. Bitcoin wedges nicely in the speculative 10% portion. Rebalance annually and enjoy the ride. Worst case it goes $0. As long as your comfortable with that who cares....the rest is gravey!
Lets get a good name for it:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9347&p=167356&hilit ... 25#p167356
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bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:54 am

I posted previously about a variety of use cases for Bitcoin. "What problem do I have that crypto is solving?"

See here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=9673&p=173490#p173490

Here is an interesting take on the "speculation/investment" thesis for Bitcoin.

https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john ... ets+v6.pdf
Amidst the indiscriminate speculation, sensationalist and mostly misguided media coverage and roller-coaster price volatility, this paper sets out to consider cryptoassets from the perspective of a rational, long-term investor. As investors, we look for things that generate sustainable, ideally growing economic rent — an economic surplus that will accrete to us. This paper evaluates the extent to which cryptoassets offer the foregoing.
It is an interesting and educational read, regardless of if you are a "true believertm" or a skeptic.

Alternatively, you can keep ignorantly calling it beanie babies.
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technovelist
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by technovelist » Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:49 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:40 am
technovelist wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:50 pm
gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:10 pm


I’m not sure about soon.....my speculation (let’s see how this ages for the sake of fun)....~September 2019 will start a real slow boring new bull run....(bitcoin is dead in the news stories continue).....then mid 2020 will start the next run up a little more excited like...(you’ll start hearing about bitcoin again)......2021 to 2022 next FOMO event and then bitcoin crashes 80% again....deemed dead again....and setttles around $20k.
Once a totally absurd bubble pops, it never comes back. That's because once people realize that it can go down, they stop and ask themselves "What is the actual use value, not the speculative value?" The answer is always "Very little or nothing".

Some examples are tulips, dot-com stocks, Beanie Babies and Bitcoin. There are many others; those are just some of the more famous and/or recent.

The only exception is when such a bubble is reinflated by the government, e.g., the housing market.
Somehow I don't think Bitcoin is going to be among the rare exceptions.

But by all means, sink all you have into it; it will be educational.

As I found out in 1980 when I bought into the silver bubble on the day of the top.
On margin.
This is bad information on Bitcoin.

Which Bitcoin bubble are you referring to?

When it went from $30 to $1?
Or $270 to $40?
Or $1200 to $100?
Or what-happens-to-be-the-current-bubble of $20k to $3k?
When it went from 0 to $20k.
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bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:30 pm

technovelist wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:49 am
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:40 am
technovelist wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:50 pm


Once a totally absurd bubble pops, it never comes back. That's because once people realize that it can go down, they stop and ask themselves "What is the actual use value, not the speculative value?" The answer is always "Very little or nothing".

Some examples are tulips, dot-com stocks, Beanie Babies and Bitcoin. There are many others; those are just some of the more famous and/or recent.

The only exception is when such a bubble is reinflated by the government, e.g., the housing market.
Somehow I don't think Bitcoin is going to be among the rare exceptions.

But by all means, sink all you have into it; it will be educational.

As I found out in 1980 when I bought into the silver bubble on the day of the top.
On margin.
This is bad information on Bitcoin.

Which Bitcoin bubble are you referring to?

When it went from $30 to $1?
Or $270 to $40?
Or $1200 to $100?
Or what-happens-to-be-the-current-bubble of $20k to $3k?
When it went from 0 to $20k.
Ok so only the *last* bubble is the bubble? Bitcoin was not in an absurd bubble when it went from $1 to $30 and back to $1? Even though it went up higher and came back down further than the current bubble? Or $10->$270->$40?

If Bitcoin goes to $30k, was "such a bubble reinflated"?
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Ad Orientem
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:03 pm

Majority of bitcoin trading is a hoax, new study finds
New research is casting even more doubt on the legitimacy of bitcoin trading.

An analysis published by Bitwise this week shows that 95 percent of bitcoin spot trading is faked by unregulated exchanges. The survey, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, echoes concerns by regulators that cryptocurrency markets are still ripe for manipulation.

Bitwise, an asset manager in the process of trying to list the first-ever bitcoin exchange traded fund, said it met with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday to discuss its application. As a part of the process, it submitted analysis that could help regulators cut through the noise.

"People looked at cryptocurrency and said this market is a mess, that's because they were looking at data that was manipulated," said Matthew Hougan, global head of research at Bitwise. "When you cut away the echo chamber of these nonsense numbers, it should be an efficient, well-arbitraged market."

The analysis showed that "substantially all of the volume" reported on 71 out of the 81 exchanges was wash trading, a term that describes a person simultaneously selling and buying the same stock, or bitcoin in this case, to create the appearance of activity in the market. In other words, it's not real.

Those exchanges report an aggregated $6 billion in average daily bitcoin volume. The study finds that only $273 million of that is legitimate.
Read the rest here...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/majorit ... finds.html
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bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:30 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:03 pm
Majority of bitcoin trading is a hoax, new study finds
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/majorit ... finds.html
Read the source version (227 pages) here: https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearc ... 183434.pdf

Good information there. Perhaps a bit inside baseball.

There is a ton of fraud in the crypto world.
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technovelist
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by technovelist » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:31 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:03 pm
Majority of bitcoin trading is a hoax, new study finds
New research is casting even more doubt on the legitimacy of bitcoin trading.

An analysis published by Bitwise this week shows that 95 percent of bitcoin spot trading is faked by unregulated exchanges. The survey, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, echoes concerns by regulators that cryptocurrency markets are still ripe for manipulation.

Bitwise, an asset manager in the process of trying to list the first-ever bitcoin exchange traded fund, said it met with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday to discuss its application. As a part of the process, it submitted analysis that could help regulators cut through the noise.

"People looked at cryptocurrency and said this market is a mess, that's because they were looking at data that was manipulated," said Matthew Hougan, global head of research at Bitwise. "When you cut away the echo chamber of these nonsense numbers, it should be an efficient, well-arbitraged market."

The analysis showed that "substantially all of the volume" reported on 71 out of the 81 exchanges was wash trading, a term that describes a person simultaneously selling and buying the same stock, or bitcoin in this case, to create the appearance of activity in the market. In other words, it's not real.

Those exchanges report an aggregated $6 billion in average daily bitcoin volume. The study finds that only $273 million of that is legitimate.
Read the rest here...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/majorit ... finds.html
That is actually quite appropriate.

Because the whole notion of Bitcoin as an "investment" is a hoax.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:47 pm

Looks like they’re running back into bitcoin.
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