Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Tortoise
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:39 pm

If they had predicted the timing of the stock market downturn in advance, then I'd be impressed.

Just about anybody can look at a stock market graph and say, "Yup, sure looks like the graph has been sloping down for the past month or two," and then tell a story that rationalizes why it might continue to go down for a while.

::)
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:42 pm

Yep. I love that people can make a living off of it.
Turns out you *can* profit from predictions, but only if you are the predictor. And you don't have to be right!
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm

My rebalance for Jan has turned from cash going into about 50% bonds and 50% gold and selling some stocks to

6% bonds, 17% gold and 75% stocks.

I'm not sure I like the turn of this....

My PP at a low for the year now.
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Xan
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm

Xan wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence. O0
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:20 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm
Xan wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence. O0
HAH!
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Smith1776
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:36 pm

It’s funniest when people are arguing about the strategy and keep saying “PP” in the middle of a bunch of serious statements. ;D
640K ought to be enough for anybody.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:31 am

A lot of the stock market selling he's going to turn out to be tax-loss harvesting. people talk about a Santa Claus rally but the Santa Claus rally really doesn't statistically take place until after Christmas.

Postscript Dec 25 - Lance Roberts looking for 2620-2650 as a possible oversold rally target.
whatchamacallit
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm

Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:23 pm

Not every day you see 1000 points, wow.

Still, my rebalance is now buy 98% stocks, a sliver of bonds, and actually selling gold. Interesting.

We'll see what that looks like when I really will rebalance in early Jan after contributing to my IRAs.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:42 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html
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