The GOLD scream room

[Libertarian666]

i suspected that since i had not heard of it being done, that this kind of shady dealing was unlikely to have been wide spread, (hence the stupid question preface) it just seemed to me that when times are tough and people struggle, that (illegal or otherwise) any possibility to Arbitrage would have been jumped on..  either trade against foreign currency or hustling based on the greater fool theory...

Currencies were fixed against one another. I don't think there was much arbitrage possible at the time.

[dualstow]

Once Roosevelt used an executive order to seize all the gold that people had left in banks for safekeeping, he raised the price slowly to $35/oz., as part of a harebrained scheme to raise commodity prices.

I was reviewing the wiki page on Executive Order 6102 yesterday, and while all of your post looks accurate, the page says that that safe deposit boxes were not opened or seized. You didn't mention safe deposit boxes, but I'm bringing them up because the wiki page does. If the wiki page is accurate and the story about those boxes being opened is just a hoax, then I guess a lot of people were able to keep their gold through 1933 and '34 by just leaving their gold in them, though they were unable to trade. Is that right?

[Libertarian666]

Once Roosevelt used an executive order to seize all the gold that people had left in banks for safekeeping, he raised the price slowly to $35/oz., as part of a harebrained scheme to raise commodity prices.

I was reviewing the wiki page on Executive Order 6102 yesterday, and while all of your post looks accurate, the page says that that safe deposit boxes were not opened or seized. You didn't mention safe deposit boxes, but I'm bringing them up because the wiki page does. If the wiki page is accurate and the story about those boxes being opened is just a hoax, then I guess a lot of people were able to keep their gold through 1933 and '34 by just leaving their gold in them, though they were unable to trade. Is that right?

No, as far as I know, safe deposit boxes were not opened or seized as a result of the executive order. But since you weren't allowed to buy or sell gold without a jeweler's license (IIRC), that would greatly reduce the value of holding gold as insurance.

[movie buff]

Some historical background

August 1971 – US president Richard Nixon takes the dollar off the gold standard, which had been in place with minor modifications since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 and fixed the conversion rate for one Troy ounce of gold at $35.
August 1972 – The US devalues the dollar to $38 an ounce of gold.Sep 17, 2010
Source: Gold prices – the highs and lows since 1971 - The Guardian

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... e-timeline

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor ... iat-money/

[ochotona]

GDX lost 4% today, I almost got stopped out. Maybe tomorrow.

[Libertarian666]

GDX lost 4% today, I almost got stopped out. Maybe tomorrow.

It always amazes me when people supposedly using the PP use gold stocks instead of gold. I guess gold isn't volatile enough for them, and has too high an expected return?
Of course I suppose you can use anything in a VP, but why not just buy lottery tickets?

[dualstow]

GDX lost 4% today, I almost got stopped out. Maybe tomorrow.

It always amazes me when people supposedly using the PP use gold stocks instead of gold. I guess gold isn't volatile enough for them, and has too high an expected return?
Of course I suppose you can use anything in a VP, but why not just buy lottery tickets?

+1

[ochotona]

I booked a 25% profit in 12 trading days.

[dualstow]

I booked a 25% profit in 12 trading days.

Very nice. How much did you gamble, and what is your next trade?

[Fred]

I re-balanced into gold in December but I only brought it up to 20% because I decided to leave my stock allocation where it was at 40% and call it the Golden Butterfly. I kind of regret that right now. 

[buddtholomew]

I re-balanced into gold in December but I only brought it up to 20% because I decided to leave my stock allocation where it was at 40% and call it the Golden Butterfly. I kind of regret that right now.

Re-balancing into gold in December saved your bacon!
Q1 2016 has started out eerily similar to Q1 2015 when stocks were down and both gold and LTT's were positive.
Not clear whether the trend will continue, but I plan to buy more stocks as soon as the EOY bonus clears. Being gold and LTT heavy is worrisome to me.

[ochotona]

It was totally luck. I committed $5000 to buy and hold of GDX, but the market had other ideas. I won't play again for a while.

[Fred]

Being gold and LTT heavy is worrisome to me.

I thought a read a post of yours where you were finally happy with the way the PP is going. It's sounding to me like worry is your natural state of mind.

[dualstow]

It was totally luck. I committed $5000 to buy and hold of GDX, but the market had other ideas. I won't play again for a while.

"Treat me to dinner", as they say in Chinese. :-) Well, I'm glad it worked out, and I'm glad you didn't put in more than that even though it worked out. Well done.

[buddtholomew]

Being gold and LTT heavy is worrisome to me.

I thought a read a post of yours where you were finally happy with the way the PP is going. It's sounding to me like worry is your natural state of mind.

Yes, I am the resident worrier but more at peace than I have ever been with the PP.
All I'm saying is I prefer to have a bias towards equities as times of prosperity are more pleasurable than those of excess inflation, deflation or recession.

[dualstow]

I'm with you, Budd. Stocks are best, and all's well when the entire country (or world) is prospering and innovations are materializing.

At the same time, doesn't it feel good to see some red turn to black? Well, perhaps some seasoned pp'ers already have a lot of black, or all black. I'm sure a lot of tech's gold holdings are well in the black. But, aside from my gold purchase last month, all my gold is in the red. All of it. Some of it is about to breach breakeven if things continue upward. I'll be so happy just to have it at zero. Whoo-hoo!

[Libertarian666]

Being gold and LTT heavy is worrisome to me.

I thought a read a post of yours where you were finally happy with the way the PP is going. It's sounding to me like worry is your natural state of mind.

Yes, I am the resident worrier but more at peace than I have ever been with the PP.
All I'm saying is I prefer to have a bias towards equities as times of prosperity are more pleasurable than those of excess inflation, deflation or recession.

That's why I have a bias against equities. In times of prosperity, I can get a job and the economy is reasonably pleasant, so I don't worry about my portfolio as much. It's the other times that I want my portfolio to protect me.

[buddtholomew]

I thought a read a post of yours where you were finally happy with the way the PP is going. It's sounding to me like worry is your natural state of mind.

We are more alike than different. I
Yes, I am the resident worrier but more at peace than I have ever been with the PP.
All I'm saying is I prefer to have a bias towards equities as times of prosperity are more pleasurable than those of excess inflation, deflation or recession.

That's why I have a bias against equities. In times of prosperity, I can get a job and the economy is reasonably pleasant, so I don't worry about my portfolio as much. It's the other times that I want my portfolio to protect me.

We are more alike than different in this regard.
I invest in the PP for stability and to meet expenses in the event of a job loss.
The balance is more heavily invested in stocks as I want to participate during times of prosperity as well.

[buddtholomew]

I'm with you, Budd. Stocks are best, and all's well when the entire country (or world) is prospering and innovations are materializing.

At the same time, doesn't it feel good to see some red turn to black? Well, perhaps some seasoned pp'ers already have a lot of black, or all black. I'm sure a lot of tech's gold holdings are well in the black. But, aside from my gold purchase last month, all my gold is in the red. All of it. Some of it is about to breach breakeven if things continue upward. I'll be so happy just to have it at zero. Whoo-hoo!

Absolutely. My gold position is still down 10%+, but as a whole stocks, LTT's and 3% CD's have produced a respectable CAGR since 2011.

[Libertarian666]

By the way, did anyone see the spike to 1216? I think it lasted 30 seconds, but we're still at 1208.

Let me guess: Yellen caved in on interest rates?

[dualstow]

By the way, did anyone see the spike to 1216? I think it lasted 30 seconds, but we're still at 1208.

Let me guess: Yellen caved in on interest rates?

Janet Yellen Signals Caution on Rates
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen hinted to Congress Wednesday that the central bank had increased trepidation over the path of interest-rate increases, pointing to accumulating risks to the economy in recent weeks.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-flag ... 1455111066

[dragoncar]

I'm with you, Budd. Stocks are best, and all's well when the entire country (or world) is prospering and innovations are materializing.

At the same time, doesn't it feel good to see some red turn to black? Well, perhaps some seasoned pp'ers already have a lot of black, or all black. I'm sure a lot of tech's gold holdings are well in the black. But, aside from my gold purchase last month, all my gold is in the red. All of it. Some of it is about to breach breakeven if things continue upward. I'll be so happy just to have it at zero. Whoo-hoo!

Absolutely. My gold position is still down 10%+, but as a whole stocks, LTT's and 3% CD's have produced a respectable CAGR since 2011.

My gold is still down 20% due to contribution timing

[dualstow]

Absolutely. My gold position is still down 10%+,

My gold is still down 20% due to contribution timing

Mine's down 19%. I wish I could blame it on markup, but no. The good performance of gold probably got me interested in craig's pp posts at bogleheads circa 2010. It's still better than chasing some silly fund because of last year's performance, but since I didn't buy gold "before it was cool", it's going to take some more years to really have a seasoned portfolio. One day it will look lush and green like Tyler's charts, like finely trimmed kikuyu grass. 

[Dieter]

My gold recently is less down than my LTT are up, but gold still negative.

Another Johny come lately - Stocks, Bonds, and gold all looked overpriced - market decided only gold was....

Didn't do lump sum. So that helped a bit. I've generally stayed equity heavy (42% ish) in the ~40 of my retirement funds that are Butterflyish.

[dualstow]

Either I'm reading the wrong numbers, or tech's going to have a biiiig smile on his face this morning.