It surely must feel good to see the PP roaring back to life.  Budd, try to remember this the next time the stock market points skyward while the PP plods along at its snails pace. I checked YTD, 12, 24, and 36 month returns of the PP vs VTI on etfreplay.  These numbers are quite instructive: YTD:  ...

Update: This thought just occurred to me. Maybe it's already out there somewhere but a good idea for an article on the internet would be "Sports Superstars who went out in a blaze of glory". If Peyton Manning wins the super bowl he'll be close to the top of the list but I'm having a hard ...

Ah, it's getting clearer: you are using GEM merely as an indicator for timing your change in assets between stocks and cash. Faber's chart appears at first glance to suggest that a momentum PP is vastly superior to a vanilla PP, but on second look I don't see much difference during the 1970s or from...

MediumTex provided a similar response here: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/permanent-portfolio-discussion/ultra-low-negative-interest-rates-in-germany/msg140483/#msg140483 The message seems to be that changes in yield will lead to greater volatility in bond prices in low-interest-rate environm...

That's why I find Chart 8 to be so impressive: smoother growth, smaller drawdowns, and higher CAGR! Does anyone know how exactly to implement a 7% target risk PP?  How is the volatility calculated?  It seems that only the percentage of treasury bills was varied in that Japan example; stocks, bonds, ...

Thanks for the quick response.  It seems like my understanding of the process was close.  You didn't address the GEM concept.  Would you advise ever owning international stocks or a total bond market fund in place of US stocks?  That seems to go against the HBPP principles. Using Absolute Momentum t...

A nice read to study how an Japanisation of the Economy could effect the Permanent Portfolio. http://gestaltu.com/2012/09/the-permanent-portfolio-turns-japanese.html/ The article also explores a few more rebalancing mechanism such as moving average and recent volatility. Haven't budd or ghost or so...

A nice read to study how an Japanisation of the Economy could effect the Permanent Portfolio. http://gestaltu.com/2012/09/the-permanent-portfolio-turns-japanese.html/ The article also explores a few more rebalancing mechanism such as moving average and recent volatility. Haven't budd or ghost or so...

PS, I don't think any of the products you listed (BPA, CFCs, lead paint) were developed with the knowledge that they have adverse effects.  But there was no FDA-equivalent demanding testing, at the time, to find out.  In hindsight, yeah, a lot of those things suck and should be removed from the mark...

Two days ago I was in the process of posting a similar question about fees at Fidelity when I noticed this part in their commissions pdf: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Brokerage_Commissions_Fee_Schedule.pdf [img width=500]http://i.imgur.com/wKCYuIj.jpg[/img] So a...

No, you clearly say it yourself. The money doesn't disappear. The money was given to someone else when you bought your stock or house or whatever, it was never destroyed. Then when you sell, you receive someone else's money. Paying off credit is the only way currency can be destroyed. I agree.  Let...

What is lower at Schwab, free trade SGOL (high expense ratio) or low expense ratio IAU but commission trade? The trading fee at Schwab is $8.95 and the expense ratios of IAU and SGOL are 0.25 and 0.39%, respectively.  That means you would pay 0.14% more to hold SGOL that you would IAU -- each year....

Another way of looking at it is that rebalance bands should be tightened when LTT yields get lower.  Or that LTTs should make up a greater percentage of the PP to magnify the effect of their lower volatility.  Does that make sense? Great post, Pet Hog, but you lost me at the very end. When yields a...

As LTT rates approach zero, there is less and less upside potential.  Without using fancy bond price equations, I look at it this way: Right now US 30-year treasury bonds have a yield of 2.83%.  $1000 compounded over 30 years at this rate would equal $2310 eventually.  If yields went down to zero, s...

frugal wrote: Hello fellows,

every year we had Mr.Craig Rowland's analyzes and now we don't have it anymore.

I am sad 

Craig Rowland come back, please.

Regards.

Frugal:  In case you missed it, Kriegsspiel and I posted our calculations of the PP's returns in 2015 here.

Why would you want to do that? Because they are the most volatile. Also, as Mark stated above, "your yield is delivered as LT capital gains instead of interest." Consider two 30-year treasury bonds currently available at Fidelity: (A) Maturity 2/15/2045; coupon 2.50%; ask price: $903.91/b...

... and buy new 30 year bonds with the lowest interest rate. Why would you want to do that? Because they are the most volatile. Also, as Mark stated above, "your yield is delivered as LT capital gains instead of interest." Consider two 30-year treasury bonds currently available at Fidelit...

For the year, I got: VTI -0.11% TLT -2.03% IAU -9.71% SHY +0.38% -2.88% (-2.63% real) I calculate slightly different numbers from the adjusted closes on Dec 31 2014 and the CPI-U from Nov 2014 to Nov 2015 (the latest year-over-year numbers available). VTI (from 103.93 to 104.30): +0.36% TLT (from 1...

The first sentence of the link the OP provided reads: "Finland’s government is drawing up plans to pay every citizen a basic income of euros 800 ($1,165) each month, scrapping benefits altogether." Am I the only one bothered by the bad math? Not every dollar is a US dollar, Grasshopper.

I'm no expert either, but a couple of things. HB published that book in 1989, I believe, when yields on 30-year treasuries were >8%, so there was definitely room to double if rates decreased.  Today, it's a different story, as you have stated. Your calculated maximum bond price increases of 64% (yie...

I like a mathematical challenge.  First up, S&P500: From Dec 31, 2014 (2058.90) to today (2012.37) = -2.260% Next, PP components (a four-ETF version; adjusted closes, so dividends reinvested): VTI: from 104.52 to 103.24 = -1.225% TLT: from 123.03 to 123.76 = +0.593% GLD: from 113.58 to 103.11 =...

Dec 1, 2014 :: 2,058 Dec 1, 2015 :: 2,052 S&P today :: 2,012 Not sure how to calculate precisely how the pp is doing, but is it time to revive this thread? I like a mathematical challenge.  First up, S&P500: From Dec 31, 2014 (2058.90) to today (2012.37) = -2.260% Next, PP components (a fou...

The yield actually got as low as 2.25% on 1/30/ 16 . Please, Barrett, remember Harry's Rule #4 when posting on this forum! Wow…. Please forgive a newbie’s comment. I just read Craig’s PP book and WAS excited about moving money toward a strategy that was touted as safe, simple to implement, and easy...

ashantiwarrior, are these the two funds? https://www.fidelity.co.uk/fund-supermarket/Fidelity-Index-World-Fund-P-Inc-GB00BP8RYB62 https://www.fidelity.co.uk/fund-supermarket/Fidelity-Index-World-Fund-P-Acc-GB00BJS8SJ34 All things being equal, and if there is no difference between the two funds apart...

Actually I just thought of a third option. So it's: 1) Continue purchasing 2037-maturity bonds until it's time to roll over the entire lot, 2) Purchase bonds with the longest maturity no matter what (in this case 2039-maturity bonds), or 3) Roll over your entire 2037-maturity holding into the bonds...