Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015

[sophie]

OK I'll bite...but no percentages, just rankings in order of performance:

Gold up
Stocks up
Bonds down

Of course, "bonds down" has been the prediction for 6 years now and we're all 0 for 6.  Trying for 0 for 7.

[Lowe]

The Fed continues to delay raising the FFR, citing caution in the face of uncertainty and continuing low inflation.  What they don't say is that nothing they do can have a positive impact in the face of US demographic decline.

So rates remain the same, or decline somewhat, as worried foreigners exchange their currency for dollars to buy treasurys.  Some sources of worry are that Putin does not make concessions, even with Russia in recession, and that China continues to increase defense spending.

Russian economic output does not reverse its decline, even after OPEC allows oil production to fall.  OPEC relenting has no effect on US equity, which continues its upward march, with increasing volatility.  Gold continues on its downward trend, albeit with episodic jumps due to uncertainty around the fiscal policy of the new Congress.

This is to say, more of the same.

[LC475]

Must have poll!  Like last year!

I predict winningest asset will be: Bonds!

That way, right or wrong, at least I will be alone. 

[goodasgold]

Hey, what kind of poll is this, anyway? You forgot to mention beanie babies and tulips!

Joe Granville could have done a better job predicting the Great L.A. Earthquake.

[Professor Disorientation]

I am going out on a limb and say Gold will be the best performing asset in 2015. Wait and see what happens when greed turns into fear. This is not going to end pretty-too much investor complacency and Fed arrogance will lead to a stampede for the exits.

[MachineGhost]

As the resident doom porner, I voted for cash!

[Mike59]

Bonds and Stocks and US dollar all have had quite the run up. I think gold is long overdue for a mean reversion rally, it has my bet in 2015.

[LC475]

Hey, what kind of poll is this, anyway? You forgot to mention beanie babies and tulips!

Joe Granville could have done a better job predicting the Great L.A. Earthquake.

Hmm.  Not sure where the K.K. photos option came from.  I deleted it.

Ha!  A reference to last year's thread.  I thought it was fine as a proxy for other/none of the above/I refuse to participate in your childish tomfoolery.  At least one person had already voted for it!

[Kbg]

What the heck and totally useless...

Stocks - Down to slightly up by year's end
Bonds - Flat to slightly down
Gold - Up

Prognostication...

The bull turns into a bear, but a regular one...like -15 to -25%
Bonds basically go nowhere counterbalanced by the bear in stocks (bonds up), down on the recovery with a slight return to Fed normality
Gold, where the money goes because there isn't anything else to go to
Foreign stocks may have a good year, because this one sucked so much for them

See ya next year!

[rutabaga]

Stocks + 15%
Bonds  + 15%
Cash    + 2%
Gold      -15%

The economy will remain approximately as strong as it is now.

Perhaps you remember my prediction (above) for 2014. I think it was not too bad.  Based on it I was 40/30/10/20 this year which worked out well.
This weighting also has good historical returns.

My current economic model bases its prediction on finding the closest historial precedent for the last 3 years of PP component returns - in the current case
we are closest to 1996-8. Thus the projection is for 2015 to be  like 1999:
1999 (+20.84%) (-12.89%) (+4.55%) (+0.97%) 19,337 (+3.32%)    (S,B,C,G)  (as per peaktotrough.com). I have also read that
historically stocks do well on years that end with 5 and on the third year of presidential cycles. The trader Larry Williams who makes cyclic forecasts
projects a low in August, with gold having a good year.

BTW I view the weekly forecasts in the Saturday prediction videos at guerillastocktrading.com. Lance Jepsen's personality is a bit "goofy"  and
some of the information is basic but
I find that it grows on you after a while - and I almost always learn something useful -it is entertaining and educational.

A great site for academic/quant approach is thewholestreet.com.   

***this post meant for entertainment and laughter purposes only***

[whatchamacallit]

S&P 500  2550

30 Year    2.5%

Cash        0.005%

Gold        $1000

Bitcoin      $225

[Thomas Hoog]

Who is Kim Kardashian ?
I like predictions, so useless.
I just think the world come to senses, so Stocks & Bonds will go down.
So Gold should the trick.

"Of course, "bonds down" has been the prediction for 6 years now and we're all 0 for 6.  Trying for 0 for 7."
+1 

[Stunt]

S&P 500  2550

30 Year    2.5%

Cash        0.005%

Gold        $1000

Bitcoin      $225

So stocks up 10%, bonds up 9%, gold down 20%, bitcoin down 28%...
PP flat for the year - what's you inflation expectation?

[dualstow]

Bonds continue up, somehow.

Stocks up, although with two big plunges during the year.

Gold tottering around US$1000 at year end after teasing us all year.

Cash, largely unchanged. Still green and boring compared to other currencies.

"Who is Kim Kardashian?" is an increasingly common response to 2015 references to Kim Kardashian.

Apple flounders.

Rob Ford  becomes PM of Canada and stars in Chris Farley biopic.

Cuban cigars.

[Reub]

Okay, I'll bite.

TLT up 25.4%
VTI up 4.6%
SHY up 0.6%
Gold up 9.4%

Total return +10%

[Tyler]

Gotta get my vote in:

I predict a weird year with ups and downs, but everything performing kinda well in the end:

Stocks: +10
Bonds: +15
Gold: +10
Cash: 0

Total: +8.75%

[barrett]

Stocks + 15%
Gold +10%
Bonds +5%
Cash 0%

Total return 7.5%. Sorry I didn't get these figures to you folks earlier. I know how much you all count on me!

[Tom]

My complete guesses:

Stocks - Will dip a bit, then come back up.  They'll be the winner.

Bonds - Will do well most of the year, then the Fed will start talking rate hike, people freak out and they bomb.  Fed retracts rate hike talk and they recover a bit but down for the year.

Gold - Just going to have to totally guess on this one and say down for the year.  I think in the beginning it may get some safe haven demand on rebalancing, but down for the year.

Cash - Flat

[Thomas Hoog]

Who is Kim Kardashian ?

Sometimes ignorance is truly bliss.

  +1

I'm too old to be called ignorant. She certainly has qualities as an asset for the short term, maybe something for the VP.

[whatchamacallit]

Zombie bump

Looks like this is where it ended:

S&P 500  2,043.94

30 Year    3.02

Gold        $1061

Cash        0.14

Bitcoin      $433

[Fred]

With about 5 years in the PP under my belt the only thing I can say as far as predictions goes is that this is probably the first year yet that I can claim with absolutely certainty that I have absolutely no friggin' clue what is going to happen next.

[Kriegsspiel]

For the year, I got:

VTI -0.11%
TLT -2.03%
IAU -9.71%
SHY +0.38%

-2.88% (-2.63% durrrr -3.13% real)

[Lang]

Can we open a predictions thread for 2016?

[Pet Hog]

For the year, I got:

VTI -0.11%
TLT -2.03%
IAU -9.71%
SHY +0.38%

-2.88% (-2.63% real)

I calculate slightly different numbers from the adjusted closes on Dec 31 2014 and the CPI-U from Nov 2014 to Nov 2015 (the latest year-over-year numbers available).

VTI (from 103.93 to 104.30): +0.36%
TLT (from 122.78 to 120.58): -1.79%
IAU (from 11.44 to 10.23): -10.58%
SHY (from 84.00 to 84.36): +0.43%

Nominal PP (Dec 31 2014 to Dec 31 2015): -2.90%

CPI-U (from 236.151 to 237.366): +0.51%

Real PP (Dec 31 2014 to Dec 31 2015): -3.41%

How does this return compare with those from previous years?  I whipped up this simple chart using data from peaktotrough.com and bls.gov/cpi (annual inflation: Dec to Dec; except 2015: Nov to Nov):

[img width=600]http://i.imgur.com/PRaQlTd.png[/img]

2015 was the 4th year with a negative nominal return since 1972, but the 13th year with a negative real return.

2015 had the 5th worst real return since 1972, beaten only by 1981 (-15.21%), 1990 (-4.24%), 1994 (-5.17%), and 2013 (-4.24%).

The black line on the chart is the 10-year moving average of the real returns (not the CAGR).  It shows that the PP is continuing to do its thing, even though we have experienced two years of negative real returns in the past three years.  The real CAGR over the last 10 years has been 4.86%.

[barrett]

Nice work on that chart, Pet Hog. Can you make one up for the next ten-year period to put us all at ease? I am one of those that has concerns about low returns going forward but your chart is a great visual to see where we have been. Thanks for posting it.