Search found 319 matches

by Vil
Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5458
Views: 545842

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

See the top contenders in the list, sorted DESC by deaths/100K pop: TopContenders.jpg I do not really get how that small ( according to what I read in this thread) difference in deaths/100K between BG (452 deaths/100K) and USA (255 deaths/100K) is making such a difference? I guess its due to the pop...
by Vil
Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 91
Views: 3016

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

After having some time to think about it, I think the Golden Butterfly might be the ticket for investing my dad's estate money. This is how I ended investing my EUR stuff( on top of pure US PP kept in USD). Hegding US PP was a stupid initial move. Though I keep less stocks than pure GB (i.e. 30-35%...
by Vil
Thu Jan 06, 2022 12:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 1467

Re: 2022 PP predictions

I've been investing since the early 80s, so I've had a 40 year bull market in stocks and bonds. Actually, I feel a bit lucky in that aspect, that I started with US PP at the end of 2019/very beginning of 2020, which turned to be quite a good year (~15% for me). Before that I've never invested in bo...
by Vil
Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 1467

Re: 2022 PP predictions

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:23 am
Stocks down
Gold down
Bonds down
And if we assume there is no some staggering lack of liquidity across the markets - where all those money will go ?
by Vil
Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 91
Views: 3016

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

... This is why kitces did his article on the red zone . That is when you are pre retirement through the early years of retirement and dollars are at their peak ….a hit can be years of money . Indeed, Kitces article is a good one. For any forum newcomers it would sound like - if you are young and h...
by Vil
Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 91
Views: 3016

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

I have high 6 digit sum in US PP and feel just fine. Though have other assets (land inclusive) too. Actually, the more I have the more risk averse I get. It's definitely one thing to lose 30% on 5000 USD, and just another on a million for example.. But that's just me.
by Vil
Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 1467

Re: 2022 PP predictions

Morgan Stanley predictions , I have no f*cking clue. Now reading "Trading Sardines" (by Linda Raschke, guess you know who she is). She confirms one can make millions in short term market moves, though long time predictions are next to impossible. She credits Taleb's 'swans' too ;D By the way dualsto...
by Vil
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2021 PP Returns
Replies: 30
Views: 1156

Re: 2021 PP Returns

Approx. 4% for me. The wage income for the last year was kind of a very good one, according to statistics I've seen I am in the top 20% of US households. So, personally I do not care too much about PP - its doing its business, I am doing mine.
by Vil
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Bulgaria
Replies: 12
Views: 429

Re: Bulgaria

God damn Vil, put down that Doom Juice and pick up a Hope Soda. I prefer the good old Reality-style Beer (which is the drink that lead me to PP and this forum, not the Doom Juice or the Hope Soda ;) ) On another note, here, in BG there are places for any taste, the ones you've mentioned are more fo...
by Vil
Thu Dec 30, 2021 3:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Bulgaria
Replies: 12
Views: 429

Re: Bulgaria

Vil, here's an article I just saw about Bulgaria. Interesting! https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-pandemic-gives-new-hope-to-one-of-the-worlds-fastest-shrinking-countries-11640784601?st=qbzewo9kx8j3lx7&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink Xan , thanks for sharing. Well.. while there is certainly so...
by Vil
Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Craig's Crawling Road Podcast
Replies: 3
Views: 482

Re: Craig's Crawling Road Podcast

Vil, I know this is pathetic but I found exactly one episode of Craig's own podcast: the first one. I have a lot of Harry's Money Talk episodes, but only one Craig. Far from pathetic. I guess Craig himself might be the only source of those and tend to believe can reach him outside the premises of t...
by Vil
Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 2024

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

https://dualmomentumsystems.com/?post=a-look-at-triad https://dualmomentumsystems.com/?post=permanent-portfolio-vs-triad This is the one you invented, right ? Though there is still a mystery behind it: Triad splits the portfolio into 1/3rds. Based on the lookback methodology (which I am not divulgi...
by Vil
Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:46 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5458
Views: 545842

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

regardless of your position on the vaccine and virus, Well, not sure it was ever mentioned by me, or you got the wrong impression from some of my posts, but I contracted Covid last spring (kids brought it from school). Afterwards got fully vaccinated too. Even though I still have good enough immune...
by Vil
Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:37 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5458
Views: 545842

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Yes, its kind of unbelievable. Reading this thread I suspect we (i.e. humans, supposedly there are no robots posting here, even having some repeatable statements here and there ;) ) fall prey of what I call "context-bias" - we think what we see outside our window is the weather all over the world. A...
by Vil
Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

.. whether equity-heavy portfolios like his will experience regression to the mean. On a funny note, a very old post (dragoncar, 2015, but I vividly recall it), related to what might be referred as the "Golden Bitching"-PP portoflio ;D I find bitching is just a regular part of the PP. It's really 2...
by Vil
Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:23 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5458
Views: 545842

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

A close friend of mine is just now visiting Sweden. He reports that there is no masking whatsoever, and everything appears to be "normal". Come on, Swedish folks are amateurs - read on below ... Moreover, they have 80+ % of vaccinated people ! Here, we have just a bit over 30% of fully vaccinated p...
by Vil
Tue Dec 21, 2021 3:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

I moved to a PP in order to protect the wealth already created as I hopefully glide towards retirement. +1 gazillion, exactly the same reason why I landed on PP. Moreover, still can't see (drug dealing also not being an option) how I can earn from investing the amount of money I am getting from my ...
by Vil
Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:06 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Podcasts
Replies: 78
Views: 14759

Re: Podcasts

No worries, I am not in hurry. In any case your willingness to help is highly appreciated O0
by Vil
Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 2024

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

The MMM I know (always thought its some Canadian Boggleheads version), ERE - completely ignorant about, will check it. Thanks for those. EDIT: Had a glance over couple of topics on the ERE site and the suggested reads ("How I found freedom in unfree world" being one of those). A bit too extreme for ...
by Vil
Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 2024

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Krieg , what all those TLAs that you discovered mean - ERE, MMM ? I wish to discover them too .. MJ , thanks for sharing this article. I can't understand how with the bond tent and V-shaped stock allocation, portfolio continues its almost exponential growth - maybe higher annual contributions done ...
by Vil
Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:05 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Podcasts
Replies: 78
Views: 14759

Re: Podcasts

• Craig was a guest on what podcast? Yes, he was, long ago. Actually, even not one, but two appearances - thevoluntarylife podcast (there is also link to it from AdOrientem's blogspot...) and also this one - survival podcast . As for surival podcast can recall a very early discussion between you an...
by Vil
Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Log4Shell - worst computer vulnerability since Heartbleed?
Replies: 13
Views: 574

Re: Log4Shell - worst computer vulnerability since Heartbleed?

Just being curious and checked Interactive Brokers desktop client (a.k.a TWS) that I had upgraded just a week ago (to build 981.3e) and it's using older version of log4j (2.12 if I recall). Update on the TWS vulnerability - on 16th December an auto-update kicked in, and TWS got self upgraded to 981...
by Vil
Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:36 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Podcasts
Replies: 78
Views: 14759

Re: Podcasts

but it is best heard in Christakis’ voice. Yeah, on the other hand, Sam's intonation is 99% resembling mine when I am reading good-night stories to my daughter (and to be honest hoping she will fall asleep in less than 30 minutes). I listened to it in parts (not finished) - worth listening indeed, ...
by Vil
Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 2024

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Worth reading, a recent article from Morningstar - What's a Safe Retirement Spending Rate for the Decades Ahead? In short they are suggesting SWRs in the future to be more in the low 3% range than something in the 4-5% range. But of course all is data available in hindsight and the rest are brain ex...
by Vil
Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 2024

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

The short answer is: just to be conservative. Thanks for sharing. I arrange things pretty much on the conservative side too. I am in my very early 40s, and while substantially decreased the distance to FIRE in the last 6-7 years, still not able to say I am ready to cover all the expenses of a famil...