Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

[ochotona]

IBKR charges USD 0.005 per share to trade. It sounds like Schwab charge MORE than that to their customers, but we don't know it because the charges are not line-items. I am trying to get my hands on more information. They sell their order flow to 3rd party trading desks and earn commissions form it. Every years they earn $100s of millions in this manner.

[Kbg]

I don’t have Schwab so I can’t compare, but pure commission wise if you are swinging a really big bat fixed commission is cheaper than IB.

IB provides a ton of methods to control your trade. Of note, as of Friday IB now offers a commission free trading account for US stocks and ETFs.

[ochotona]

The GEM portfolio is in US Equities for October 2019 (SPY, IVV, VOO, SCHX)

[ochotona]

The GEM portfolio is in US Equities for November 2019 (SPY, IVV, VOO, SCHX). It's early to call it, but a change is highly unlikely.

[HappyMan]

Here is a Canadian version of GEM, Hot Potato Portfolio,

https://www.moneysense.ca/save/investin ... portfolio/

[ochotona]

PODCASTS

Gary Antonacci

https://www.stitcher.com/s?eid=60239439&refid=asa


Paul Novell

https://www.stitcher.com/s?eid=65459054&refid=asa

[TrickPony]

Thanks for the info.

[ochotona]

The GEM portfolio is in US Equities for December 2019 (SPY, IVV, VOO, SCHX).

[ochotona]

The GEM portfolio is in US Equities for January 2020 (SPY, IVV, VOO, SCHX).

[rocketdog]

I have almost entirely exited US equities. I bought CWI ETF of global stocks excluding US. VEU is another choice. This was the May 31 Dual Momentum signal.

It feels strange. Now the financial news is oddly not relevant. I'm dependent on Mario Draghi, PBoC, BOJ more than Yellen.

It's fun to look at old posts like this to see what people were doing with their portfolios and checking to see if it was the right decision or not. In this case... not. From 5/31/2017 (the date of the GEM signal) to 12/31/2019, here are the performance differences of the funds mentioned:

SPY: +40%
CWI: +16%
VEU: +16%

So if you had switched from SPY to either CWI or VEU on 5/31/2017 and held until now, you would have forfeited 24% of your potential profits within a mere 2-1/2 years, for an annualized under-performance of nearly 10%.

So much for momentum signals...

[Kbg]

I have almost entirely exited US equities. I bought CWI ETF of global stocks excluding US. VEU is another choice. This was the May 31 Dual Momentum signal.

It feels strange. Now the financial news is oddly not relevant. I'm dependent on Mario Draghi, PBoC, BOJ more than Yellen.

It's fun to look at old posts like this to see what people were doing with their portfolios and checking to see if it was the right decision or not. In this case... not. From 5/31/2017 (the date of the GEM signal) to 12/31/2019, here are the performance differences of the funds mentioned:

SPY: +40%
CWI: +16%
VEU: +16%

So if you had switched from SPY to either CWI or VEU on 5/31/2017 and held until now, you would have forfeited 24% of your potential profits within a mere 2-1/2 years, for an annualized under-performance of nearly 10%.

So much for momentum signals...

Well, how about let's just say you don't actually understand the profit/loss profile of a momentum system and this one in particular.

Correct on underperformance. I do not run the classic GEM so my performance stats are different but the version I run since the date cited has the following stats.

5.06 CAGR vs.
13.74 for a buy and hold of the S&P 500 equivalent asset
5.46 for a buy and hold of the ex US equivalent asset
3.70 for a buy and hold of the US bond asset

But that is only half of the story...if we throw in MaxDDs we find the following:
-19.36 MaxDD for S&P 500
-21.51 MaxDD for ex-US
-3.57 MaxDD for Bonds

System MaxDD -9.11

NOT a newsflash to anyone who has studied the system - in a strong US bull stock market the system underperforms

So please post this exact same post when one of three things happens and I promise to run the numbers and post them

1. Intl outpeform US
2. Bonds outpeform anything
3. a bear market

[rocketdog]

People obsess over max drawdowns WAY too much. Unless you're in retirement (or close to it) you should ignore drawdowns entirely. In fact, you should greedily view them as ideal buying opportunities.

The market only took 3 years to completely recover from the Great Recession, and that was after a drawdown of 40%! So if you were a buyer of stocks during that period (rather than selling in a panic), then you made out like a bandit.

"Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." - some smart investor guy