Do you simply buy and hold s&p? Buy at dips, minus 10% and lower?Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:52 amI think we all have to be cognizant of the fact that as soon as something gets turned into an investable product it becomes a mechanism for bringing efficiency to that element of the market. It will be interesting to see how it works going forward. The longer I’m around this stuff the more I become impressed with the S&P 500. Ultimately it’s a momentum fight amongst America’s most successful companies...that’s been a good combo and hard to beat.
Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Moderator: Global Moderator
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
My personal 25% (leveraged) is the Nasdaq 100. Mainly I just rebalance when I think it is a good time to rebalance. I have a BUNCH of indicators that are all automated in their production. My basic process is...do I need to rebalance based on bands. If the answer is yes, then I start a bit of market timing to time the rebalance. Every once in awhile I get a screaming buy or sell signal and if there is anything to rebalance then I will rebalance. For example if my mix was at 30, 26, 24, 20 I may look at the left or right end if there is an applicable signal. If there was a signal on the two in the middle I'm doing nothing. With 3x ETFs you can get a lot of movement very quickly. If I was unleveraged I'd probably just band rebalance.
All the above is an example of my basic methodology, not the specifics.
All the above is an example of my basic methodology, not the specifics.
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
On a 3 6 12 month basis, Canada is outperforming the USA. I like Canada. I need to buy some EWC on July 1 when I trade.
EWC 10.19%
SPY 9.61%
EWC 10.19%
SPY 9.61%
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
The GEM portfolio is in US Equities for July 2019 (SPY, IVV, VOO, SCHX).
Having said that, I am doubting the ability of the 12-month lookback to perform accurately past the end of September, due to the extreme volatility of Q4 2019. This is a bad feature of this particular simple way to calculate momentum. It could very well post a "BUY" signal for late 2019 / early 2020 simply due to the trough in the stock market in late 2018 / early 2019.
I find that an 18 month simple moving average has similar results to the 12-month lookback, so I'll be reporting that from now on.
I'll still be comparing S&P 500 stocks vs. ACWI ex-US (I'll use the CWI ETF, it outperforms VEU) using the 12-month lookback to find out which to invest in, I just won't use the 12-month lookback to go risk-on / risk-off.
{FYI - I'm not using the above. I'm following the Economic Pulse model, which I can't disclose, but I don't want to leave readers in the lurch}
Having said that, I am doubting the ability of the 12-month lookback to perform accurately past the end of September, due to the extreme volatility of Q4 2019. This is a bad feature of this particular simple way to calculate momentum. It could very well post a "BUY" signal for late 2019 / early 2020 simply due to the trough in the stock market in late 2018 / early 2019.
I find that an 18 month simple moving average has similar results to the 12-month lookback, so I'll be reporting that from now on.
I'll still be comparing S&P 500 stocks vs. ACWI ex-US (I'll use the CWI ETF, it outperforms VEU) using the 12-month lookback to find out which to invest in, I just won't use the 12-month lookback to go risk-on / risk-off.
{FYI - I'm not using the above. I'm following the Economic Pulse model, which I can't disclose, but I don't want to leave readers in the lurch}
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Paul Novell was on Meb Faber's podcast recently.
https://mebfaber.com/2019/07/01/the-bes ... dels-fail/
https://mebfaber.com/2019/07/01/the-bes ... dels-fail/
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
The GEM portfolio is in US Equities for August 2019 (SPY, IVV, VOO, SCHX)
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
I am concerned USMV is too crowded a trade. Still using SP500 cap weighted ETFs.
That said, for my wife's purely buy-and-hold portfolio, I am using ACWV, iShares MSCI Min Vol Global ETF. I think over a period of time it will be more suitable for her than VT, which she was in before.
That said, for my wife's purely buy-and-hold portfolio, I am using ACWV, iShares MSCI Min Vol Global ETF. I think over a period of time it will be more suitable for her than VT, which she was in before.
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
The GEM portfolio is in US Equities for September 2019 (SPY, IVV, VOO, SCHX).
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
I'm in a 401(k) which I detest. The two best funds I have access to are Invesco S&P500 Equal Weight (VADAX), and American Funds New World Fund® Class R-3 (RNWCX). The later is a global fund, actively managed and costly, and heavily EM weighted, almost 1/2 EM. I get assailed by ridiculous fees. You know what it is. Thankfully, when I turn 59.5 I can do an in-service transfer and rip the accumulated funds out.
Being half EM sounds like a recipe for failure, but I have noticed that as on Aug 30, RNWCX beats VADAX on a 12-mo momentum basis, so I switched over to it. I'm trying to run something like a GEM in my 401(k) and hope I don't hit any frequent trading limits. I should be OK.
Interesting observation I thought others would like to hear. The US vs International, the passive vs active worms may be turning.
Being half EM sounds like a recipe for failure, but I have noticed that as on Aug 30, RNWCX beats VADAX on a 12-mo momentum basis, so I switched over to it. I'm trying to run something like a GEM in my 401(k) and hope I don't hit any frequent trading limits. I should be OK.
Interesting observation I thought others would like to hear. The US vs International, the passive vs active worms may be turning.
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see active start working again when we do get the next "paradigm shift". Especially since active fees have dropped considerably in the last few years. I mean, there are some solid active funds now under 1% ER (like the highly regarded Contrafund).
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
How much does Interactive Brokers save you in trading friction? Are their order executions that much better than Schwab, Fidelity, etc for trading ETFs? That might be a consideration for a momentum investor.