A Way To Time Gold

[portart]

Having thought long and hard about gold and why it won't go up, like a comet it hit me. If I want gold to go up, all I have to do is overweight stocks. That seems to always work in other investment I put money in. The more stocks I buy, the more they will drop and inversely gold will rise. Why did it take me so long to figure this out?

[Mike59]

I have a knack for finding chart patterns and timing rules that "have never failed" in particular time periods (long monthly charts going back decades), especially in precious metals (the HUI index and silver being my drugs of choice). These patterns arise after numerous spreadsheets and annotations on my tradingview.com screens. Then when I'm positive the fund is about to skyrocket (this month, it's gonna happen, I said it first!!!) I'll even have some real money on the table, that's precisely when it does a false breakout and crashes to the downside, the first time it EVER violated the pattern I backtested    I should be a professional investment newsletter writer!

On a side note, I tossed my VP and any approaches to gambling in the garbage a little while ago and have never looked back, I sleep much better at night and have actually made more money by just watching the PP do its thing. Harry Browne saved me from myself!

[Cortopassi]

Guys, you are not the only one this phenomenon happens to!  PP has saved me from myself as well.

The only quote I really needed to see from Fail Safe Investing:

"You'll come across many trading systems or indicators that seem always to have signaled correctly where your money should have been, but somehow the systems never come through when your money is on the line."

[ochotona]

It struck me, though, that the story of gold in 2014 - 2015 is the story of the US Dollar. The strength of the Dollar is really responsible for gold's bad showing lately. But this can't last forever; the Dollar bubble is going to pop someday. That day will be a good day to buy gold. In retrospect, of course.

[Mike59]

The true players sit pretty when the bubbles pop because they stack gold all through the bear market.  Even Buffett took a quick double-bagger with silver in the 90's.  Andrew Hamilton at ZealLLC has articles on his page where from when he advocated buying gold in the early 2000's right before the take off  and must've made out like a bandit (http://www.zealllc.com/essays.htm)