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Re: HBPP Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:05 am
by sophie
OK I'll bite...but no percentages, just rankings in order of performance:
Gold up
Stocks up
Bonds down
Of course, "bonds down" has been the prediction for 6 years now and we're all 0 for 6. Trying for 0 for 7.
Re: HBPP Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:09 am
by Lowe
The Fed continues to delay raising the FFR, citing caution in the face of uncertainty and continuing low inflation. What they don't say is that nothing they do can have a positive impact in the face of US demographic decline.
So rates remain the same, or decline somewhat, as worried foreigners exchange their currency for dollars to buy treasurys. Some sources of worry are that Putin does not make concessions, even with Russia in recession, and that China continues to increase defense spending.
Russian economic output does not reverse its decline, even after OPEC allows oil production to fall. OPEC relenting has no effect on US equity, which continues its upward march, with increasing volatility. Gold continues on its downward trend, albeit with episodic jumps due to uncertainty around the fiscal policy of the new Congress.
This is to say, more of the same.
Re: HBPP Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:42 am
by LC475
Must have poll! Like last year!
I predict winningest asset will be:
Bonds!
That way, right or wrong, at least I will be alone.

Re: Poll: HBPP Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:44 am
by goodasgold
Hey, what kind of poll is this, anyway? You forgot to mention beanie babies and tulips!
Joe Granville could have done a better job predicting the Great L.A. Earthquake.
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:05 pm
by Professor Disorientation
I am going out on a limb and say Gold will be the best performing asset in 2015. Wait and see what happens when greed turns into fear. This is not going to end pretty-too much investor complacency and Fed arrogance will lead to a stampede for the exits.
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:44 pm
by MachineGhost
As the resident doom porner, I voted for cash!

Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:13 pm
by Mike59
Bonds and Stocks and US dollar all have had quite the run up. I think gold is long overdue for a mean reversion rally, it has my bet in 2015.
Re: Poll: HBPP Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:51 pm
by LC475
TennPaGa wrote:
goodasgold wrote:
Hey, what kind of poll is this, anyway? You forgot to mention beanie babies and tulips!
Joe Granville could have done a better job predicting the Great L.A. Earthquake.
Hmm. Not sure where the K.K. photos option came from. I deleted it.
Ha! A reference to last year's thread. I thought it was fine as a proxy for other/none of the above/I refuse to participate in your childish tomfoolery. At least one person had already voted for it!
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Sat Dec 20, 2014 12:37 am
by Kbg
What the heck and totally useless...
Stocks - Down to slightly up by year's end
Bonds - Flat to slightly down
Gold - Up
Prognostication...
The bull turns into a bear, but a regular one...like -15 to -25%
Bonds basically go nowhere counterbalanced by the bear in stocks (bonds up), down on the recovery with a slight return to Fed normality
Gold, where the money goes because there isn't anything else to go to
Foreign stocks may have a good year, because this one sucked so much for them
See ya next year!
Party Like Its 1999!
Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:22 pm
by rutabaga
rutabaga wrote:
Stocks + 15%
Bonds + 15%
Cash + 2%
Gold -15%
The economy will remain approximately as strong as it is now.
Perhaps you remember my prediction (above) for 2014. I think it was not too bad. Based on it I was 40/30/10/20 this year which worked out well.
This weighting also has good historical returns.
My current economic model bases its prediction on finding the closest historial precedent for the last 3 years of PP component returns - in the current case
we are closest to 1996-8. Thus the projection is for 2015 to be like 1999:
1999 (+20.84%) (-12.89%) (+4.55%) (+0.97%) 19,337 (+3.32%) (S,B,C,G) (as per peaktotrough.com). I have also read that
historically stocks do well on years that end with 5 and on the third year of presidential cycles. The trader Larry Williams who makes cyclic forecasts
projects a low in August, with gold having a good year.
BTW I view the weekly forecasts in the Saturday prediction videos at guerillastocktrading.com. Lance Jepsen's personality is a bit "goofy" and
some of the information is basic but
I find that it grows on you after a while - and I almost always learn something useful -it is entertaining and educational.
A great site for academic/quant approach is thewholestreet.com.
***this post meant for entertainment and laughter purposes only***
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:40 pm
by whatchamacallit
S&P 500 2550
30 Year 2.5%
Cash 0.005%
Gold $1000
Bitcoin $225
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:05 am
by Thomas Hoog
Who is Kim Kardashian ?
I like predictions, so useless.
I just think the world come to senses, so Stocks & Bonds will go down.
So Gold should the trick.
"Of course, "bonds down" has been the prediction for 6 years now and we're all 0 for 6. Trying for 0 for 7."
+1

Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:43 am
by Stunt
whatchamacallit wrote:
S&P 500 2550
30 Year 2.5%
Cash 0.005%
Gold $1000
Bitcoin $225
So stocks up 10%, bonds up 9%, gold down 20%, bitcoin down 28%...
PP flat for the year - what's you inflation expectation?
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:45 am
by dualstow
Bonds continue up, somehow.
Stocks up, although with two big plunges during the year.
Gold tottering around US$1000 at year end after teasing us all year.
Cash, largely unchanged. Still green and boring compared to other currencies.
"Who is Kim Kardashian?" is an increasingly common response to 2015 references to Kim Kardashian.
Apple flounders.
Rob Ford becomes PM of Canada and stars in Chris Farley biopic.
Cuban cigars.
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 4:42 pm
by Reub
Okay, I'll bite.
TLT up 25.4%
VTI up 4.6%
SHY up 0.6%
Gold up 9.4%
Total return +10%
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:09 pm
by Tyler
Gotta get my vote in:
I predict a weird year with ups and downs, but everything performing kinda well in the end:
Stocks: +10
Bonds: +15
Gold: +10
Cash: 0
Total: +8.75%
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:41 pm
by barrett
Stocks + 15%
Gold +10%
Bonds +5%
Cash 0%
Total return 7.5%. Sorry I didn't get these figures to you folks earlier. I know how much you all count on me!
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:03 pm
by Tom
My complete guesses:
Stocks - Will dip a bit, then come back up. They'll be the winner.
Bonds - Will do well most of the year, then the Fed will start talking rate hike, people freak out and they bomb. Fed retracts rate hike talk and they recover a bit but down for the year.
Gold - Just going to have to totally guess on this one and say down for the year. I think in the beginning it may get some safe haven demand on rebalancing, but down for the year.
Cash - Flat
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:56 am
by Thomas Hoog
Desert wrote:
MangoMan wrote:
Thomas Hoog wrote:
Who is Kim Kardashian ?
Sometimes ignorance is truly bliss.

+1
I'm too old to be called ignorant. She certainly has qualities as an asset for the short term, maybe something for the VP.
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:51 pm
by whatchamacallit
Zombie bump
Looks like this is where it ended:
S&P 500 2,043.94
30 Year 3.02
Gold $1061
Cash 0.14
Bitcoin $433
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:01 pm
by Fred
With about 5 years in the PP under my belt the only thing I can say as far as predictions goes is that this is probably the first year yet that I can claim with absolutely certainty that I have absolutely no friggin' clue what is going to happen next.
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:51 am
by Kriegsspiel
For the year, I got:
VTI -0.11%
TLT -2.03%
IAU -9.71%
SHY +0.38%
-2.88% (-2.63% durrrr -3.13% real)
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:23 pm
by Lang
Can we open a predictions thread for 2016?

Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:36 pm
by Pet Hog
Kriegsspiel wrote:
For the year, I got:
VTI -0.11%
TLT -2.03%
IAU -9.71%
SHY +0.38%
-2.88% (-2.63% real)
I calculate slightly different numbers from the adjusted closes on Dec 31 2014 and the CPI-U from Nov 2014 to Nov 2015 (the latest year-over-year numbers available).
VTI (from 103.93 to 104.30): +0.36%
TLT (from 122.78 to 120.58): -1.79%
IAU (from 11.44 to 10.23): -10.58%
SHY (from 84.00 to 84.36): +0.43%
Nominal PP (Dec 31 2014 to Dec 31 2015): -2.90%
CPI-U (from 236.151 to 237.366): +0.51%
Real PP (Dec 31 2014 to Dec 31 2015):
-3.41%
How does this return compare with those from previous years? I whipped up this simple chart using data from peaktotrough.com and bls.gov/cpi (annual inflation: Dec to Dec; except 2015: Nov to Nov):
[img width=600]
http://i.imgur.com/PRaQlTd.png[/img]
2015 was the 4th year with a negative nominal return since 1972, but the 13th year with a negative real return.
2015 had the 5th worst real return since 1972, beaten only by 1981 (-15.21%), 1990 (-4.24%), 1994 (-5.17%), and 2013 (-4.24%).
The black line on the chart is the 10-year moving average of the real returns (not the CAGR). It shows that the PP is continuing to do its thing, even though we have experienced two years of negative real returns in the past three years. The real CAGR over the last 10 years has been 4.86%.
Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Posted: Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:39 am
by barrett
Nice work on that chart, Pet Hog. Can you make one up for the next ten-year period to put us all at ease?

I am one of those that has concerns about low returns going forward but your chart is a great visual to see where we have been. Thanks for posting it.