Coldest Summer in a decade

[Benko]

http://nypost.com/2014/08/08/summer-201 ... -a-decade/
I don't care for hot weather and have really liked this summer in western PA, but apparently it has not just been mild here

While a late summer heat wave is possible, forecasters at the National Weather Service say there’s a slim chance one will slip in the next few weeks.

Yes, I know local temps mean nothing as far as global temp, still if this is global warming, I hope in continues :-)

[Pointedstick]

It was great for New Mexico, too. The cooler-than-average temperatures resulted in a monsoon last month that dumped almost triple the usual amount of rain. Much needed and appreciated.

[doodle]

So when the temperature monitoring stations pump out numbers that show a cooler summer the deniers cite this as evidence that global warming is a farse. Yet, when the stations put out warmer than average numbers they are broken and dont work well.

Anyways, according to NOAA it seems to be local phenomenon. Global temps still up

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was the highest on record for the month, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).
The global land surface temperature was 0.95°C (1.71°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), the seventh highest for June on record.
For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record and the highest departure from average for any month.
The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.67°C (1.21°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2002 as the third warmest such period on record.

[Benko]

Doodle,

If icebergs advance to Michigan, there will still be explanations about how it fits with global warming.  I recommend highly:

Mistakes Were Made, But Not By Me
apparently if we believe anything very strongly our brain prevents us from even registering information that contradicts what we believe.

Back to our regularly scheduled progressive programming :-)

EDIT:  NB: my only belief in such matters in that no one knows what is going on with certainty.

[doodle]

I dont disagree, Benko. Climate change is part and parcel of a changing Earth....ice ages would concern me more than warming temps do.

My argument is simply:

1. Human behavior is changing the planets climate

2. There will be effects stemming from this change which if over a short time span could make life complicated for 7.5 billion people who have shaped their lives around a particular type of climate

3. Humans should endeavor to understand and control the climate as we are so dependent upon it for our survival.

[Pointedstick]

So basically, doodle, let me see if I understand this fully:

- The mean global temperature is rising, but not evenly.
- As a result, some areas of the world are getting colder while others are getting hotter.
- The amount of increasing hotness is outstripping the amount of increasing coldness.

Is that right? If so, can you explain why I should worry about this? We humans have experience living in both very cold and very hot places. Certainly ecosystems will be altered, but we've been altering ecosystems since we first harnessed fire. What exactly is the worry? It it just nervousness over the uncertainty of what the results might be?

[doodle]

So basically, doodle, let me see if I understand this fully:

- The mean global temperature is rising, but not evenly.
- As a result, some areas of the world are getting colder while others are getting hotter.
- The amount of increasing hotness is outstripping the amount of increasing coldness.

Is that right? If so, can you explain why I should worry about this? We humans have experience living in both very cold and very hot places. Certainly ecosystems will be altered, but we've been altering ecosystems since we first harnessed fire. What exactly is the worry? It it just nervousness over the uncertainty of what the results might be?

If you go hiking in Americas breadbasket today and dig into the loamy soil you will find seashells.....this is problematic were it to reoccur.

If you see a possible event in the future that is potentially problematic for your family how do you react to it? Im sure you analyze the probabilities and come up with strategies to mitigate this issue. Well, this is a situation that has the potential to affect the entire human family and yet you think the solution is for us to collectively do nothing?

Risk abatement is an entirely practical way to face potentially hazardous situations in the future. We have reasonable scientific evidence to understand the issue at hand and practical solutions. All we need is change the already arbitrary rules of the game we are playing slightly...

If you have a right to pollute as much as you want and that pollution is later found to cause rising sea levels which buries my familys house underwater...then i should have the right to sue your ass....or at least blowup your familys house with dynamite if we devolve back into an eye for an eye type society

[Pointedstick]

If you go hiking in Americas breadbasket today and dig into the loamy soil you will find seashells.....this is problematic were it to reoccur.

If you see a possible event in the future that is potentially problematic for your family how do you react to it? Im sure you analyze the probabilities and come up with strategies to mitigate this issue. Well, this is a situation that has the potential to affect the entire human family and yet you think the solution is for us to collectively do nothing?

Not at all… but I think any kind of actions taken to mitigate the risk or my risk of becoming affected by it needs to pass the three-part smell test:
1. Is the danger likely to happen to fast that only prior preparations will be effective?
2. Is the danger universal? Is everybody going to be hurt, or only some people? Am I one of those people?
3. Is the danger likely to be so inexorable that only avoidance or adaptation will be effective?

Global warming clearly isn't #1. Even the fastest scenarios play out in decades, if not centuries. #2 isn't the case either. Some people will be hurt, but some people will also be helped. The Canadians and Russians ought to be cheering it on. #3 is highly likely, though: there is simply nothing that, in all practicality, we can do about it. Leading climate scientists are already saying we passed the tipping point of avoiding any warming. We simply have to deal with it.

So this leaves me with the following conclusion: there is a major environmental problem that we see coming, but that we likely can't stop, and whose impact will only be negative to some people, and will be felt only gradually.

To me, this seems to imply the the sanest reaction is incremental adaptation for the people who are projected to live in an area that will be negatively affected (e.g. an already hot place that is likely to become even hotter to the point of desertification). Because it's unavoidable, we shouldn't waste resources trying to stop it. Because its impact is unequally felt, the people who are likely to be unaffected or even helped by it don't need to do anything. Because it's slow, we don't have to urgently uproot everything right now. The danger is complacency, of course. But that's always a danger. And, in collective human matters, I don't really see any way around it. Collectives are by necessity slow-moving entities; if they move too fast, they upset or hurt hurt the individuals within them causing some of those people to leave, because people only join collectives because of perceived benefits to themselves.

[Mountaineer]

What's the problem, anyway?  The Borg will assimilate us long before ice covers my location, or my location turns into hell on earth.  And I am assuming for the unbelievers in Christianity, you surely believe in assimilation by the Borg - right - you gotta believe in something in addition to AGW? (oops, topic for the other thread) 

PS - your strategy is way to logical for feelers.

... Mountaineer

[doodle]

We just happen to disagree about our ability to shape the climate I guess....

We know the primary factors that go into creating our climate. To me it is totally conceivable that with our oresent level of knowledge and technology we have the ability to change the climate.

We know for exampke that volcanoes spew partivulate matter into upper atmosphere which blocks sunlight which causes global cooling. I have seen a variety of scientists say we have the capability to recreate this phenomenon by shooting sunreflecting particles into space.

There are other ways as well through carbon sequestration using plants and the like. There are a variety of solutions to this pending issue that will all cost a lot less than relocating 4 billion people who live in coastal areas and floodplains..

[doodle]

What's the problem, anyway?  The Borg will assimilate us long before ice covers my location, or my location turns into hell on earth.  And I am assuming for the unbelievers in Christianity, you surely believe in assimilation by the Borg - right - you gotta believe in something in addition to AGW? (oops, topic for the other thread) 

... Mountaineer

i really think you should sign up for this course. It will completely reshape the way you look at life....

https://www.coursera.org/course/humankind

[Pointedstick]

We just happen to disagree about our ability to shape the climate I guess....

I think we disagree on our ability to deliberately shape the climate. It's totally conceivable to me that our actions are changing the climate--in fact, I think it's virtually certain. I just don't see that we can all band together to do the same thing on a macro level to produce specifically-aimed-for effects.

[Mountaineer]

What's the problem, anyway?  The Borg will assimilate us long before ice covers my location, or my location turns into hell on earth.  And I am assuming for the unbelievers in Christianity, you surely believe in assimilation by the Borg - right - you gotta believe in something in addition to AGW? (oops, topic for the other thread) 

... Mountaineer

i really think you should sign up for this course. It will completely reshape the way you look at life....

https://www.coursera.org/course/humankind

Actually that sounds like quite an interesting course in hypotheses concerning mankind but I doubt it will make me drink the cool-aid.  I'll make you a deal, I'll sign up for this one and study in good faith if you agree to go to Concordia Seminary in Fort Wayne, Indiana and obtain an M. Div. degree.  Deal? 

http://admission.ctsfw.edu/?dest=mdivadmiss

... Mountaineer

[barrett]

PS,

To be clear, you are all for intensive research on alternative (wind, solar, tidal) energy sources, correct? At least that is what I think you have posted elsewhere. It seems to me that you and Doodle are not really on opposite sides of the climate debate.

[doodle]

What's the problem, anyway?  The Borg will assimilate us long before ice covers my location, or my location turns into hell on earth.  And I am assuming for the unbelievers in Christianity, you surely believe in assimilation by the Borg - right - you gotta believe in something in addition to AGW? (oops, topic for the other thread) 

... Mountaineer

i really think you should sign up for this course. It will completely reshape the way you look at life....

https://www.coursera.org/course/humankind

Actually that sounds like quite an interesting course in hypotheses concerning mankind but I doubt it will make me drink the cool-aid.  I'll make you a deal, I'll sign up for this one and study in good faith if you agree to go to Concordia Seminary in Fort Wayne, Indiana and obtain an M. Div. degree.  Deal? 

http://admission.ctsfw.edu/?dest=mdivadmiss

... Mountaineer

Will it require just watching an hour long video once a week? The reason why I think this course would be good is that it talks about things that most humans are completely unaware of...like how many different human species there have been that have gone extinct....the cognitive revolution and migration, the transition from hunter gatherer to landed agriculture, the formation of culture, government, religion etc etc.  I wasnt aware of most of the stuff in this course and it totally reshaped my way of looking at the world,

[Mountaineer]

i really think you should sign up for this course. It will completely reshape the way you look at life....

https://www.coursera.org/course/humankind

Actually that sounds like quite an interesting course in hypotheses concerning mankind but I doubt it will make me drink the cool-aid.  I'll make you a deal, I'll sign up for this one and study in good faith if you agree to go to Concordia Seminary in Fort Wayne, Indiana and obtain an M. Div. degree.  Deal? 

http://admission.ctsfw.edu/?dest=mdivadmiss

... Mountaineer

Will it require just watching an hour long video once a week? The reason why I think this course would be good is that it talks about things that most humans are completely unaware of...like how many different human species there have been that have gone extinct....the cognitive revolution and migration, the transition from hunter gatherer to landed agriculture, the formation of culture, government, religion etc etc.  I wasnt aware of most of the stuff in this course and it totally reshaped my way of looking at the world,

I think you will get your worldview reshaped too if you go for the M. Div.!  However, look at the link I sent.  Just the admission requirements are quite rigorous ... not to mention a few years of INTENSE study.  Not for the timid.  Waht to go for it? 

... Mountaineer

[Pointedstick]

PS,

To be clear, you are all for intensive research on alternative (wind, solar, tidal) energy sources, correct? At least that is what I think you have posted elsewhere. It seems to me that you and Doodle are not really on opposite sides of the climate debate.

Yes, absolutely. As an anarchist, I am not in favor of the government doing it, but as a libertarian, if the government has to do something, I prefer possibly wasteful research into alternative electricity generation methods to murdering innocent people overseas.

[moda0306]

Debate so far:

Benko: It's getting colder.  Global warming is a farce.

doodle: Does that mean when we have a warm year, it's not a farce?  Oh, by the way, on a GLOBAL scale, it's getting warmer (source)

Benko: No response to the fact that the GLOBE is actually warming. Ad Hominem implying climate scientists will turn any cooling into an argument for global warming. Irrelevant to doodle's argument that the GLOBE is actually warming.

Then posts seemingly thoughtful response about people wanting to hold to their pre-conceived notions.



The irony is just dripping off of the initial throws of this thread.

Glad we've turned it a bit more pragmatic.  Sorry, Benko, but I had to call you on your $hit.


And not to take this to an even higher dick level, but it is stuff like this that makes me want to completely write off everything any conservative has to say about climate change and just have liberals move on like technocratic dictators on the topic of climate change.  Conservatives are either obfuscating facts, or relying on those facts without asking ANY questions.

[Benko]

Moda,

Thanks for misrepresenting what I wrote:

EDIT:  NB: my only belief in such matters in that no one knows what is going on with certainty.

[Benko]

it is stuff like this that makes me want to completely write off everything any conservative has to say about climate change

You already do, you just don't know it.

Mistakes Were Made, But Not By Me
apparently if we believe anything very strongly our brain prevents us from even registering information that contradicts what we believe.

[Pointedstick]

Debate so far:

Benko: It's getting colder.  Global warming is a farce.

That's not actually when Benko said at all. Here's what he actually said:

http://nypost.com/2014/08/08/summer-201 ... -a-decade/
I don't care for hot weather and have really liked this summer in western PA, but apparently it has not just been mild here

While a late summer heat wave is possible, forecasters at the National Weather Service say there’s a slim chance one will slip in the next few weeks.

Yes, I know local temps mean nothing as far as global temp, still if this is global warming, I hope in continues :-)

I think you were reading what you expected to see. Which is the kind of thing that, as TennPaGa pointed out, is all too human and totally normal.

[Benko]

TennPA,

"...when we don’t want to believe something, we ask ourselves, “Must I believe it?”? Then we search for contrary evidence, and if we find a single reason to doubt the claim, we can dismiss it."

Read the book I suggested.  It is far worse than your quote suggests.  The brains of anyone who believes in anything very strongly doesn't even let the person really register contradictory evidence.  Of course I don't believe in anything very strongly.  Well except hubris of scientists of certain political persuasions.

[Pointedstick]

And not to take this to an even higher dick level, but it is stuff like this that makes me want to completely write off everything any conservative has to say about climate change and just have liberals move on like technocratic dictators on the topic of climate change. Conservatives are either obfuscating facts, or relying on those facts without asking ANY questions.

its quotes like this that harden my skepticism about climate change and reinforce the idea in my head that the real goal/concern is establishing the dictatorship and not the climate or concern for humanity at all...
my personal bias is toward being a skeptic with regards to political motivations, so when people say stuff like this to convince me of climate change it comes across as a strong point against the argument for climate change and political solutions to climate change, and a strong point in favor of being a skeptic 

Same here. It directly tickles the part of the conservative or libertarian brain that suspects that deep down inside every liberal is a Mao Zedong or Pol Pot just waiting to force us to leap forward into their vision of a bright tomorrow... I like to say that stereotypes exist for a reason, and I find that politically, most of them are more uncomfortably true than most people care to admit.

And yes, in the interests of fairness, this means that deep down inside, conservatives want a morals-enforced theocracy and libertarians actually yearn for the "law of the jungle."

[Mountaineer]

"Or, to put it differently... if someone is being a dick, being an even bigger dick is not the best response."

Oh my, I thought this discussion had devolved to debating the merits of Dick Cheney, Dick Nixon, and Dick Tracy!  Then I realized bigger is not always better. 

... Mountaineer

[moda0306]

its quotes like this that harden my skepticism about climate change and reinforce the idea in my head that the real goal/concern is establishing the dictatorship and not the climate or concern for humanity at all...

my personal bias is toward being a skeptic with regards to political motivations, so when people say stuff like this to convince me of climate change it comes across as a strong point against the argument for climate change and political solutions to climate change, and a strong point in favor of being a skeptic 

Same here. It directly tickles the part of the conservative or libertarian brain that suspects that deep down inside every liberal is a Mao Zedong or Pol Pot just waiting to force us to leap forward into their vision of a bright tomorrow... I like to say that stereotypes exist for a reason, and I find that politically, most of them are more uncomfortably true than most people care to admit.

And yes, in the interests of fairness, this means that deep down inside, conservatives want a morals-enforced theocracy and libertarians actually yearn for the "law of the jungle."

Eventually, we have to remove the garbage arguments.  Regardless of how people "feeeel" about it, it's time to start thinking and quit clogging the debate with people who aren't arguing in good faith.