Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

[portart]

We all know you don't time PP. However if your VP is one in which you buy stocks, do you think being in cash could mean missing another run up?

[dualstow]

yep.

[dragoncar]

Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.

[Kshartle]

Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.

If it's always dangerous 100% of the time then does anything other than dnagerous exist? If nothing other than dangerous exists then does dangerous exist? Doesn't it need something else to be dangerous relative to in order to exist as dangerous?

If you say "Well there is very dangerous and less dangerous", does that mean less dangerous is actually safe?

Thought for food.

[buddtholomew]

Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.

If it's always dangerous 100% of the time then does anything other than dnagerous exist? If nothing other than dangerous exists then does dangerous exist? Doesn't it need something else to be dangerous relative to in order to exist as dangerous?

If you say "Well there is very dangerous and less dangerous", does that mean less dangerous is actually safe?

Thought for food.

There is no safe, only degrees of danger.

[Kshartle]

Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.

If it's always dangerous 100% of the time then does anything other than dnagerous exist? If nothing other than dangerous exists then does dangerous exist? Doesn't it need something else to be dangerous relative to in order to exist as dangerous?

If you say "Well there is very dangerous and less dangerous", does that mean less dangerous is actually safe?

Thought for food.

There is no safe, only degrees of danger.

If every adult bengal tiger is 400-550 pounds, are there light tigers and heavy tigers, or only different degrees of heavy tigers?

[MachineGhost]

We all know you don't time PP. However if your VP is one in which you buy stocks, do you think being in cash could mean missing another run up?

Sure, but at overvalued markets like this one, virtually no one retains more than half of the preceding gains after the party ends.  So avoiding losses has more impact than being greedy.  But valuation alone is a terrible timing tool.

[Stewardship]

Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.

If it's always dangerous 100% of the time then does anything other than dnagerous exist? If nothing other than dangerous exists then does dangerous exist? Doesn't it need something else to be dangerous relative to in order to exist as dangerous?

If you say "Well there is very dangerous and less dangerous", does that mean less dangerous is actually safe?

Thought for food.

It's only dangerous 100% of the time in or out of the market.  If you are neither in nor out of the market, then it is dangerous 0-100% of the time.

[ngcpa]

As long as long term interest rates remain low, stocks are a good place to be.

[tnt]

As long as long term interest rates remain low, stocks are a good place to be.

With one qualification, if interest rates remain low, it is because economic growth is not supporting stock values and that low rates are creating a bubble and we are vulnerable to a correction. That is why bonds and gold are outperforming stocks because many are skeptical, just a theory of course.

[ngcpa]

That is why bonds and gold are outperforming stocks

Perhaps this is true over a very , very short time frame like perhaps a week or two.  Over the past couple of years stocks have way outperformed bonds and gold

[dualstow]

If you are neither in nor out of the market, then it is dangerous 0-100% of the time.

Like Schroedinger's cat?

[Reub]

I thought that you were going to call it Schroedinger's Feline Fund.

[tnt]

That is why bonds and gold are outperforming stocks

Perhaps this is true over a very , very short time frame like perhaps a week or two.  Over the past couple of years stocks have way outperformed bonds and gold

ngcpa, an allocation of 50/50 long bonds and gold have outperformed the total stock index 8.98% to 4.22% over the last 14 years and so far this year, 100% long bond was 7.04% in the same period and gold was 10.18%, these figures are cagr.