Silver

[Kshartle]

Anyone have an opinion on the metal's near-term (1-2 yr) price? Shorter predictions are welcome of course.

It's down 60% from it's nominal high in 2011 and 85% or so from it's inflation-adjusted high in 1980, or was it '81?

It's up 5.5% since the lows in late June, a modest sum but suggestive of a sideways trend rather than down.

What does everyone think going forward? To me it's more closely tied to the economy than gold which is negative (imo) but it might even be better than gold if inflation roars up.

I own as much silver as gold at this point but I own more gold stocks and much more global/em stocks.

[Benko]

I was wondering how silver had done historically (long term) vs gold and found this:

Gold and silver prices 100 year historical chart:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-an ... ical-chart

There are certainly some differences but overall amazing how similar shaped the 2 curves are.

[Bean]

What does everyone think going forward? To me it's more closely tied to the economy than gold which is negative (imo) but it might even be better than gold if inflation roars up.

I own as much silver as gold at this point but I own more gold stocks and much more global/em stocks.

Oz to Oz or $ to $?

I think silver is going to push lower as gold pushes lower in the faux-recovery.  Since we are the third longest rally ever, we will probably be approaching the end in the next 1-2 years.  Once the market craps the bed and with anemic rates, I think we might see a spike in gold, but silver around 50.  The annual consumption for coinage dwarfs other sections of the pie.  A lot of that will come out of hiding at $50 an oz.

Personally I like it as hedge just in case I am wrong and it makes a run for $300. (Most likely scenario since this is not what I am predicting.)

[rickb]

The annual consumption for coinage dwarfs other sections of the pie. 

Actually, the Silver Institute says the lion's share of silver is used in industrial applications - 5 times as much as is used for coinage.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/

[Bean]

The annual consumption for coinage dwarfs other sections of the pie. 

Actually, the Silver Institute says the lion's share of silver is used in industrial applications - 5 times as much as is used for coinage.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/

I stand corrected, could have sworn I saw coinage as the major consumer.

[Kshartle]

A five day win streak for Ag! It's up 9.2% from the lows six months ago.

Anyone else feeling bullish on it? I have a sneaking suspicion it will outperform gold AND stocks in 2014.

It's my sleeper pick. Gold needs to jump about 57% to get to it's all-time high but silver would have to go up about 150%.

[murphy_p_t]

premium to NAV for sprott silver has made some movement lately...maybe a signal?

Market Price - Historical Premium/Discount to Net Asset Value
http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott ... set-value/

[murphy_p_t]

low risk entry point now?

[Kshartle]

The white metal is certainly getting it's butt handed to it. It's right at support that's held several times. If it lingers here for a few weeks I'll probably pick up a couple hundred ounces.

The best time to buy is when prices are cheap right? Well....prices are below the 2008 level. Seems mind-boggling to me but I don't study silver. Lots of conspiracies that this is all paper silver shorting.

The gold-silver ratio is closing in on 70. Anyone know the the all-time high? This has got to be close.

[frommi]

Down to 10-15$, together with gold to <1000$.

[dualstow]

I don't invest in silver, but I did buy a couple of those new goose coins from the Royal Canadian Mint.
Pretty.

[Kshartle]

Down to 10-15$, together with gold to <1000$.

Why do you think that?

most silver production is consumed, therefore if the market price falls below profitable production amounts production drops off and investment silver must be consumed. Do you think silver can actually fall as low as $10-$15 without production nearly ceasing?

I think we're close to the bottom right here but I might be biased, I have 600-700 ounces.

[frommi]

The chart looks that way but i have no clue if it goes that way

[MachineGhost]

FWIW, Dent predicts gold will bottom at $700 after an interlude rally to $1400, but we know all too well how his doom porn predictions are (atrocious).  However, he may be right that the commodities cycled peaked in 2007.  Even if he didn't forecast the right year of the peak before hand, so long as he adjusted himself after the fact, it may be important information going forward.

Back in 1998, I bought silver on news of Buffett's purchase.  The rally didn't last too long but I got out with a 100% profit or so.

It's very easy to induce faux shortages by moving silver from reporting warehouses to non-reporting warehouses.  That is what happened to silver in 1998.  I think Buffett later unloaded it at a loss.

Considering the economy isn't recovering either here or overseas, it is a bit weird that real interest rates would be increasing and punishing gold and silver.  That's not exactly tight money in an economic expansion.  So it must be that the deflationary risk is increasing and offsetting increasing nominal rates.  That's characteristic of market tops and bullish for cash and bonds.

[MachineGhost]

most silver production is consumed, therefore if the market price falls below profitable production amounts production drops off and investment silver must be consumed. Do you think silver can actually fall as low as $10-$15 without production nearly ceasing?

It takes a long time to both stop and start production, so its no guarantee.  Plenty of commodities are produced under cost of production for years, not counting subsidies or illegal dumping.