WSJ: A Gold Bull and His Prediction: $10,000 an Ounce

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Jan Van
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WSJ: A Gold Bull and His Prediction: $10,000 an Ounce

Post by Jan Van »

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB1 ... DkyWj.html

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craigr
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Re: WSJ: A Gold Bull and His Prediction: $10,000 an Ounce

Post by craigr »

Holy cow. $10,000 gold could mean gas prices are $20-40 a gallon and other staples in similar condition. He should be careful what he wishes for!
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Re: WSJ: A Gold Bull and His Prediction: $10,000 an Ounce

Post by Wonk »

Curiosity got the best of me so I replayed that 70s show to see a similar type event.  The results are interesting:

August 1976 Gold: 103.50
January 1980 Gold: 850.00 (+821%)

August 1976 CPI-U: 57.4
January 1980 CPI-U: 77.8 (+35.5%)

Given what the data tells us in a live scenario, gold prices can rise much faster than consumer prices.  If you take those same metrics from the late 70s and apply them to today, we'd have the following:

October 2010 Gold: 1360
March 2013 Gold: 11165 (+821%)

October 2010 CPI-U: 219 (estimate)
March 2013 CPI-U: 296.7 (+35.5%)

So, based on past events, you could make the case that $10,000 gold is both within the realm of reality and doesn't necessarily need to translate into hyperinflation.  Consumer goods 35% higher 3.5 years from now isn't ideal, but it's not the end of the world either. 
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