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Predicting interest rates
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 6:41 pm
by Pointedstick
Just for a bit of fun, where do people envision long-term bond interest rates going in the near term?
My prediction is that they go up to 3.5% in the next few months, and then fall back down to 3%.
Re: Predicting interest rates
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 8:54 pm
by moda0306
I don't think they'll hit 3.5% until 2014. If they do before then, I'm buying. (VP).
Re: Predicting interest rates
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:50 am
by MachineGhost
Pointedstick wrote:
Just for a bit of fun, where do people envision long-term bond interest rates going in the near term?
My prediction is that they go up to 3.5% in the next few months, and then fall back down to 3%.
I expect them to decline on a flight to safety. Maybe when the Euro finally implodes.
Re: Predicting interest rates
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:59 am
by clacy
If I had a reliable way to predict interest rates, I would be a bond trader and not worry about things such as asset allocation and the PP
Re: Predicting interest rates
Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:37 am
by MediumTex
Rise to 4.30% before drifting back down.
Re: Predicting interest rates
Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:31 pm
by Pointedstick
Rates are going up… Am I perverse to focus on the opportunity to buy in at higher yields rather than the shrinking value of my existing bonds?
Re: Predicting interest rates
Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 7:25 pm
by sophie
Pointedstick wrote:
Rates are going up… Am I perverse to focus on the opportunity to buy in at higher yields rather than the shrinking value of my existing bonds?
No more than I am to be delighted at the chance to sell taxable bonds at a loss and buy them back at higher rates in a tax-advantaged account! (I know, 31 days later.)
Re: Predicting interest rates
Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:07 pm
by MachineGhost
Pointedstick wrote:
Rates are going up… Am I perverse to focus on the opportunity to buy in at higher yields rather than the shrinking value of my existing bonds?
Yes, because make that a trend for 30-years and you will come to regret chasing yield instead of avoiding capital losses.
Re: Predicting interest rates
Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 8:35 am
by annieB
Looks to me like the FED is going to overstay on these negative real rates.
Long bond heading back up to 7.5-8.0%.