Just for a bit of fun, where do people envision long-term bond interest rates going in the near term?
My prediction is that they go up to 3.5% in the next few months, and then fall back down to 3%.
Predicting interest rates
Moderator: Global Moderator
-
Pointedstick
- Executive Member
- Posts: 8883
- Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
- Contact:
Predicting interest rates
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
Re: Predicting interest rates
I don't think they'll hit 3.5% until 2014. If they do before then, I'm buying. (VP).
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
-
MachineGhost
- Executive Member
- Posts: 10054
- Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am
Re: Predicting interest rates
I expect them to decline on a flight to safety. Maybe when the Euro finally implodes.Pointedstick wrote: Just for a bit of fun, where do people envision long-term bond interest rates going in the near term?
My prediction is that they go up to 3.5% in the next few months, and then fall back down to 3%.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Predicting interest rates
If I had a reliable way to predict interest rates, I would be a bond trader and not worry about things such as asset allocation and the PP 
Re: Predicting interest rates
Rise to 4.30% before drifting back down.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
-
Pointedstick
- Executive Member
- Posts: 8883
- Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
- Contact:
Re: Predicting interest rates
Rates are going up… Am I perverse to focus on the opportunity to buy in at higher yields rather than the shrinking value of my existing bonds?
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
Re: Predicting interest rates
No more than I am to be delighted at the chance to sell taxable bonds at a loss and buy them back at higher rates in a tax-advantaged account! (I know, 31 days later.)Pointedstick wrote: Rates are going up… Am I perverse to focus on the opportunity to buy in at higher yields rather than the shrinking value of my existing bonds?
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
-
MachineGhost
- Executive Member
- Posts: 10054
- Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am
Re: Predicting interest rates
Yes, because make that a trend for 30-years and you will come to regret chasing yield instead of avoiding capital losses.Pointedstick wrote: Rates are going up… Am I perverse to focus on the opportunity to buy in at higher yields rather than the shrinking value of my existing bonds?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Predicting interest rates
Looks to me like the FED is going to overstay on these negative real rates.
Long bond heading back up to 7.5-8.0%.
Long bond heading back up to 7.5-8.0%.