Capitalizing (Arbitrage) on EDV Spread/Distribution Timing?

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
TripleB
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 882
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:28 am
Contact:

Capitalizing (Arbitrage) on EDV Spread/Distribution Timing?

Post by TripleB »

Suppose I've decided to hold EDV as part of my long term bonds, to complement individually held treasuries. The few shares that I've bought have been so thinly traded that the spread was significant.

This leads me to believe there may be some arbitrage activities available to me as an individual long-term investor that are not available to hedge funds or professional arbitrageurs (because the volume is too low to make it worth their effort).

In other words, I'm thinking of "timing" moves from individual Treasury Bonds into EDV. For example, suppose I can get EDV at a 0.5% advantage relative to the value of TBonds at the time. Then I should sell some of my individual bonds and immediately buy EDV.

I'm aware EDV isn't a perfect analog for LTTs and is a bit more volatile, however if I keep it at under 20% of my total bond holdings (or 5% of my total portfolio), it should work fine, especially if I can juice returns by 0.5% by playing the spread to my advantage.

Similarly, I could sell when I can get an advantage and immediately buy Long Term Treasuries. Since I have a VG account, EDV is free to transact as are treasuries on the secondary market, and since this is within an IRA, there's no taxable event occurring.

I also mention the distribution because I'm guessing the annual distribution of the fund is a period of time that causes people to react in an illogical sense in order to avoid taxes... which don't affect me as an IRA-brokerage holder. Thus, if everyone is panicking to liquidate to avoid a distribution on an ex-dividend date, it might be a good buying opportunity for me, since I can "eat" the distribution at no cost to myself.

This might be risk-free money and I'm pretty sure Melveyr can write a Google Docs spreadsheet that calculates the relative advantages and arbitrage opportunities in real time :)
TripleB
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 882
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:28 am
Contact:

Re: Capitalizing (Arbitrage) on EDV Spread/Distribution Timing?

Post by TripleB »

It's worth mentioning that the reasons I like EDV for a portion of my LTT holdings:

1) Counts towards my $50k Voyager Account Status at Vanguard... you need $50k in VG Funds, and since I invest in individual TBills, individual TBonds, and gold ETFs, it's only Stocks that I actually have VG Funds for, and I need a bit more to hit that $50k mark total.

2) EDV seems a bit more liquid than Treasury Bonds (as crazy as that sounds... and as inaccurate as that is) with respect to the Vanguard Brokerage system. It's horrific trying to sell/buy TBonds on the secondary market, whereas selling or buying EDV is relatively straight forward.

My concern is that an event may occur that I'd like to rebalance into or out of LTTs and my "safest" bet is to use the EDV portion (either buying or selling) of my LTT holdings. I think VG doesn't guarantee that you actually bought a Bond on the secondary market. You can click buy but it's a limit order and may never get filled. It's a really terrible system.
User avatar
melveyr
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 971
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 3:30 pm
Location: Seattle, WA
Contact:

Re: Capitalizing (Arbitrage) on EDV Spread/Distribution Timing?

Post by melveyr »

So could we distill your thoughts into looking at the premium/discount to net asset value?

It looks like it is trading at a slight premium right now:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=0

But I agree that it makes sense to jump in if it ever trades at a discount. It doesn't seem to be as efficiently priced as many other ETFs (I think you were seeing the spread as a symptom of that, correct?)
everything comes from somewhere and everything goes somewhere
TripleB
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 882
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:28 am
Contact:

Re: Capitalizing (Arbitrage) on EDV Spread/Distribution Timing?

Post by TripleB »

melveyr wrote: So could we distill your thoughts into looking at the premium/discount to net asset value?

It looks like it is trading at a slight premium right now:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=0

But I agree that it makes sense to jump in if it ever trades at a discount. It doesn't seem to be as efficiently priced as many other ETFs (I think you were seeing the spread as a symptom of that, correct?)
Yes on all counts. What's the best way to capitalize on this, assuming it's reasonable to use this as 10% to 20% of one's LTTs within the PP and you'd need to hold it anyway.

i.e. If it's at a premium you sell and buy individual LTTs and if it's at a discount you sell LTTs and buy EDV... with the caveat that I'd cap it at 20% of the LTT holdings overall.
User avatar
melveyr
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 971
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 3:30 pm
Location: Seattle, WA
Contact:

Re: Capitalizing (Arbitrage) on EDV Spread/Distribution Timing?

Post by melveyr »

TripleB wrote:
melveyr wrote: So could we distill your thoughts into looking at the premium/discount to net asset value?

It looks like it is trading at a slight premium right now:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=0

But I agree that it makes sense to jump in if it ever trades at a discount. It doesn't seem to be as efficiently priced as many other ETFs (I think you were seeing the spread as a symptom of that, correct?)
Yes on all counts. What's the best way to capitalize on this, assuming it's reasonable to use this as 10% to 20% of one's LTTs within the PP and you'd need to hold it anyway.

i.e. If it's at a premium you sell and buy individual LTTs and if it's at a discount you sell LTTs and buy EDV... with the caveat that I'd cap it at 20% of the LTT holdings overall.
Have you pursued a similar strategy with GTU and GLD? I think GTU has traded at a discount on numerous occasions and it is usually pretty short lived. I think MediumTex plays this game a little bit if I remember correctly.
everything comes from somewhere and everything goes somewhere
User avatar
melveyr
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 971
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 3:30 pm
Location: Seattle, WA
Contact:

Re: Capitalizing (Arbitrage) on EDV Spread/Distribution Timing?

Post by melveyr »

Slotine wrote: P.S. Just to be sure, actually equating zero yields to coupon yields is a no-no in case you were using that for calculation of premium/discount.  You need to be prepared to backout the full zero curve to make an appropriate comparison.
Vanguard shows the premium/discount for the fund here:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=0

Don't you think buying that at a discount (if it ever occurred) could be an okay deal? I agree that it's not an apples to apples comparison with LTT, but you are still buying at a discount. The opportunity would be because the ETF is not as well arbitraged as many others.

Or are you saying that the a significant discount will never occur, and the spreads merely highlight the underlying illiquidity of the zeros?
everything comes from somewhere and everything goes somewhere
Post Reply