America's Fat Future

[MachineGhost]

Trust for America's Health (TFAH) and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) warn that if obesity rates continue to follow current trends, more than half the population of 39 US states will be obese in 2030.  Should the trend persist, the related disease rates will spiral:  the number of new cases of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and stroke, hypertension and arthritis could increase 10 times between 2010 and 2020—and double again by 2030.  Further, obesity could contribute to more than 6 million cases of type 2 diabetes, 5 million cases of coronary heart disease and stroke, and more than 400,000 cases of cancer in the next two decades. Consequently, by 2030, medical costs associated with treating preventable obesity-related diseases are estimated to increase by $48 billion to $66 billion per year in the United States, and the loss in economic productivity could be between $390 billion and $580 billion annually by 2030.

http://www.medpagetoday.com/PrimaryCare/Obesity/34815

[Bean]

This makes me crave a whopper

[doodle]

What do libertarians recommend that we do to solve this issue that has largely been created by the free market....companies tapping into natural human food cravings for sweet, salty, and fatty foods? At some point this becomes economically debilitating for a country. Is it a matter of national security?

[Pointedstick]

We recommend what we always recommend: educating people on how to make good decisions for themselves. You, doodle, I think would be an excellent teacher. You've seen through all the bullshit, you're financially independent, you eat great, you get healthy exercise, and you generally lead an exemplary life. So go spread the message! I wouldn't know about any of this stuff myself if it wasn't for Gumby. He made a difference for me. People make a difference for each other. So go out there and make a difference. The problem is *not* too big, but it won't start diminishing until we take the initiative to do our parts to help solve it by opening the eyes of our friends and families to cheaper, healthier, saner alternatives.

[WiseOne]

How about a high deductible national health care plan?  When people have to pay for their first thousand or so dollars of care every year, they might think twice about leading a sedentary, fast-food laden lifestyle.  Money is one of the best motivators out there.

[l82start]

We recommend what we always recommend: educating people on how to make good decisions for themselves. You, doodle, I think would be an excellent teacher. You've seen through all the bullshit, you're financially independent, you eat great, you get healthy exercise, and you generally lead an exemplary life. So go spread the message! I wouldn't know about any of this stuff myself if it wasn't for Gumby. He made a difference for me. People make a difference for each other. So go out there and make a difference. The problem is *not* too big, but it won't start diminishing until we take the initiative to do our parts to help solve it by opening the eyes of our friends and families to cheaper, healthier, saner alternatives.

  how do you eat an elephant???    one bite at a time 

[Pointedstick]

We recommend what we always recommend: educating people on how to make good decisions for themselves. You, doodle, I think would be an excellent teacher. You've seen through all the bullshit, you're financially independent, you eat great, you get healthy exercise, and you generally lead an exemplary life. So go spread the message! I wouldn't know about any of this stuff myself if it wasn't for Gumby. He made a difference for me. People make a difference for each other. So go out there and make a difference. The problem is *not* too big, but it won't start diminishing until we take the initiative to do our parts to help solve it by opening the eyes of our friends and families to cheaper, healthier, saner alternatives.

  how do you eat an elephant???    one bite at a time   ;D

For real. Gumby made a difference in how I eat. Harry Browne and everyone here made a difference in how I invest. Jacob and Mr. Money Mustache made a difference in how I spend. Never despair that you're not reaching people. You probably are, even if you don't realize it.

[D1984]

How about a high deductible national health care plan?  When people have to pay for their first thousand or so dollars of care every year, they might think twice about leading a sedentary, fast-food laden lifestyle.  Money is one of the best motivators out there.

Two problems I see with this:

One, it is inherently regressive because it is based on a fixed dollar amount. Those people who can least afford healthful food to start with (the poor) are essentially punished for not being able to afford to eat better diets. Unfortunately, the converse is also true; for a CEO or even a middle manager, engineer, or attorney (or anyone who makes a middle or upper middle class income or above....I'd guess that includes most of the people on this forum) $1,000 is not a pittance (OK, maybe for the CEO it is) but neither is it a giant sum of money and thus would have little deterrent effect. Many health plans offered as employee benefits by major corporations already have $750 or $1000 deductibles (and coinsurance on top of that) and it doesn't seem to be helping. Also, aren't obesity and lack of health insurance correlated (notice I said correlated and not caused by....low socioeconomic stauts would tend to account for much of the correlation, I'd imagine)....this makes no sense from the "high deductibles would make people care more about their health" standpoint...after all, if anyone should care about staying healthy it should be someone who essentially has a deductible of "infinity" (which is what you basically have if you are uninsured...not even to mention the rack-rate exorbitant pricing hospitals and some doctors give the unisured vs the insured even when in both cases the patient is paying the entire bill) but this does not appear to be the case.

Two, something like 25% of our health care dollars are spent on the sickest 1% (IIRC roughly 65% are spent on the sickest 10%) of the population. Most of these people have chronic diseases of some kind (including those like heart disease, diabetes, etc associated with obesity) and know they will blow through the deductible no matter how careful they are simply because their bills will be so large. As such, a deductible of $1,000 is no real deterrent to these people. On the other side of the coin, the healthiest 50% of our population account for less than 4% of our healthcare spending; a $1,000 deductible might not effect them much simply because they hardly ever need or use health care in any significant manner. Even if the people in the middle (not in the top 10% who are chronically ill and/or have several acute illnesses or require a lifetime of expensive medication and not in the bottom 50% that might go for a checkup once a year) of these two population subgroups drastically change their habits I'm not sure it will save much on obesity related illnesses because the middle 40% or so simply don't account for enough % of spending to make a huge difference even if they cut their spending by half.

[stone]

How about a high deductible national health care plan?  When people have to pay for their first thousand or so dollars of care every year, they might think twice about leading a sedentary, fast-food laden lifestyle.  Money is one of the best motivators out there.

How many fat people, if given a "magic wand" choice, would choose to be fatter and richer rather than slim and no better off? I don't think many people overtly choose to be fat. Its a trap, a compulsion.