Basic PP concept
Moderator: Global Moderator
Re: Basic PP concept
Very nice Clive. I hope you are correct about the US being an exception, but just in case I use most of my VP as a currency hedge by holding silver, foreign stocks, bonds, and currency.Clive wrote: So there you have it. 25% gold, 25% stocks, 25% long duration, 25% short duration.
Not quite 'Fail-Safe' though for countries where a domestic currency crisis could see substantial loss of purchase power relative to imports, but the US might be an exception to that risk.
"Machines are gonna fail...and the system's gonna fail"
Re: Basic PP concept
Interesting. For me personally I would not want to use futures for the cash component of my PP. If gold is the last line of defense of your portfolio, cash is the second, so I want as little paper between me and my, uh, "paper" as possible. I also prefer to keep the currency hedging in the VP and keep a more or less pure PP, but that's just my two farthings.
I can, however, see how this or something like it might be useful for a non-US investor, particularly those that don't use a major currency like the Pound or Euro. I think that the 25% allocation to gold may not be a sufficient hedge for those in non-dollar assets. For example, a small nation currency blowup will not drive the price of gold up enough to offset losses in the other 75% of the portfolio. And even for the UK and Europe, a currency crisis or severe inflation would likely have a more modest effect on gold than the same crisis in the US. So holding other currencies makes a lot of sense to me.
I can, however, see how this or something like it might be useful for a non-US investor, particularly those that don't use a major currency like the Pound or Euro. I think that the 25% allocation to gold may not be a sufficient hedge for those in non-dollar assets. For example, a small nation currency blowup will not drive the price of gold up enough to offset losses in the other 75% of the portfolio. And even for the UK and Europe, a currency crisis or severe inflation would likely have a more modest effect on gold than the same crisis in the US. So holding other currencies makes a lot of sense to me.
"Machines are gonna fail...and the system's gonna fail"