Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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Coearth
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Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by Coearth »

I did a table showing annual returns from a Singapore Permanent Portfolio for the last 10 years. This table shows average returns per annum excluding interest and dividends. Took me a while to realise all returns from gold, foreign bonds and stocks should be calculated in my home country's Singapore dollars to accurately represent portfolio value. In below table, the portfolio is balanced back to 25% for each asset at the beginning of every year.

---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                   Annual Profit
A Stock B Bond C Gold D Cash (A+B+C+D)/4
2011 -17.0% 28.0% 13.0% 0.5% 6.1%
2010 10.1% -4.6% 16.5% 0.5% 5.6%
2009 64.5% -27.9% 23.0% 0.5% 15.0%
2008 -49.1% 29.9%  3.1% 0.5% -3.9%
2007 14.8% -2.0% 27.8% 0.5% 10.3%
2006 28.1% -9.6% 10.4% 0.5% 7.3%
2005 14.0% 4.7% 24.6% 0.5% 10.9%
2004 16.8% -0.2% -0.7% 0.5% 4.1%
2003 32.2% -5.3% 17.9% 0.5% 11.3%

Image

This theoretical Singapore Permanent Portfolio returns is based on:
A - 25% stocks: Singapore Straits Times Index (STI)
B - 25% long term government bond: iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Bond ETF (TLT), price converted to Singapore dollars according to prevailing exchange rate. TLT was used because there was no 30-year Singapore Government Bond prior to 1 April 2012,
C - 25% gold: gold price calculated in Singapore dollars using Yahoo! Finance ticker XAUSGD=X,
D - 25% cash: assuming cash returns are at 0.5% per annum due to lack of interest rate data.

Conclusion: This portfolio would have a positive average annual returns of at least 7.4% (exclude dividends and interests) at the end of last 10 years and avoided big losses in 2008. The compounded annualised returns is at least 7.3%.

My current Singapore Permanent Portfolio consists of:
25% Stocks: STI ETF (ES3). Alternatively use Nikko AM STI ETF100 (G3B)
25% Bond: Singapore Government 30-years Bond (PH1S). Alternatively use TLT.
25% Gold: UOB Gold Savings Account. Alternatively buy physical gold bullion or coins.
25% Cash: Singapore Government 3-months Treasury Bills. Alternatively, use Singapore Government 2-year Bond.

Detailed figures can be seen here in my article:
http://singapore-permanent-portfolio.bl ... folio.html

The rest of this thread has nothing much to do with Permanent Portfolio discussions... start from page 4 middle for more relevant Permanent Portfolio discussions.
Last edited by Coearth on Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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Good to have you aboard Coearth.  So far we've gotten posters from UK, Australia, Canada, Korea, Belgium, and now Singapore. 
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by Lone Wolf »

Very nice!  Thanks for sharing this info.  It's fascinating to see how different incarnations of the Permanent Portfolio behave.  I'm glad that it has treated you well.

Now that you are able to purchase 30-year Singapore government bonds, do you plan on converting in part to using these for the Bond portion?  Or will you stick with USD for now?
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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Coearth, can you please share with us some of the business philosphy of Singapore that has made your nation so financially strong and resilient?
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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@FarmerD: I have not seen the Korean and Belgium portfolio yet. I will check them out. Thanks for the info.

@Lone Wolf: Had I owned USD bonds/TLT before 2012, I would have converted all to Singapore 30 year bonds as soon as possible. Reason being, U.S. bonds are popular and quite possibly trading at a higher premium now, whereas Singapore 30 year bond is rated AAA, possibly less well know, and could be the target of funds as there may be more room to grow. Singapore is net creditor nation, with no outstanding debt, and its sovereign wealth fund GIC is said to have 100 to 300 billions in assets under management. These gave me quite some confidence for the bond. Singapore 30-year bond for me also has benefit of no annual fees, lower trading fees compared to TLT, is denominated in Singapore dollars so easier for me to keep track of its value in local dollars, with no need to currency hedge. I actually started my Singapore Permanent Portfolio in February 2012 with stocks, gold and cash only (unbalanced portfolio - quite dangerous...), then waited 2 long months till 1 April 2012 to buy the newly released Singapore 30-year bond. 3 months later in July 2012, the Singapore 30 year bond had increased by 10% which was more than enough to cover the gold losses and make my Permanent Portfolio positive. I am so glad that the Singapore 30 year bond proves to work for PP. On a side note, previously I had decided not to use existing 20 year Singapore Bond since the 20 year does not have similar volatility to stocks and gold. The 30year bond trades in Singapore stock exchange under symbol PH1S.

@Reub: Business philosphy of Singapore... Singapore has practically no natural resources and is a small island of 5 million people, who are primarily English educated... The government primarily promotes Singapore as a global financial hub for financial and banking services, as well as emphasizing the service and tourism industry, for example in recent years, a couple of high end integrated resorts (with casinos, Universal Studio theme park) was completed and helped boost the country's economy and employment since 2008/2009. Other significant industry include pharmaceutical, electronics, bio medical and manufacturing. Singapore has one of the busiest and (sometimes the busiest) airport and cargo seaport in the world. Singapore's business supportive environment and political stability attracts multi national companies and investment firms here to set up shop. Singapore is also a net creditor country so i think the government did a good job so far in making sure budgets are consistently in surplus. The government is generally efficient and mostly corrupt free (i guess it helps that the politicians are one of the highest paid in the world), and controlled mainly by one political party since 1965. The law in Singapore is very strict and quite efficient so residents are generally quite law abiding. It helps that there are no typhoons, earthquakes, tsunami and major natural disasters here. As a small nation, Singapore has its fair share of challenges and needs to remain competive to grow.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by Reub »

Thank you for that, Coearth. And what about your taxation policies? Do you encourage welfare, disability retirements, food stamps? Do you have a Social Security retirement system that covers all? And what about your medical system, is it socialized?
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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@Reub: In Singapore, there is a 7% Goods and Services Tax (GST) for all product purchases and services. Resident's personal income tax max out at 20% for income of S$320,000 and above. No capital gains tax for personal investment, no bonds and bank savings interest tax, no estate duty tax since 2008, and dividends are taxed as part of personal income only. Non-resident tax rate at 15% or resident rate, which ever is higher. Singaproe does not manufacture cars. Rather, the government authority sells certs called Certificate of Entitlement (COE) which people have to buy from government in order to be entitled to own a car - due to limited COE supply, currently each COE cost all time high of S$60k to S$80k, and on top of that buyer still have to pay for the price of the car, some of which are now cheaper than the COE itself. The government collects considerable road toll everyday through the islandwide Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) gantry systems which automatically deducts money from each car passing through the gantries during peak hours. I guess the government is somewhat efficient when it comes to tax collection matters.

Singapore does not implement welfare system. Emphasis is on self reliance and the social safety net is varied but not really thick. The government runs a handful of schemes targeted to help the needy. Laid off workers do not receive automatic benefits, rather there are schemes to partial or fully subsidize laid off workers to train them in new skills. Food stamps are available to the needy when they applied for it and are qualified. The government sometimes returns budget surplus to Singaporeans in the form of cash handouts or rebates on municipal services.

In Singapore, the Central Provident Fund (CPF) is a compulsory comprehensive social security savings plan for working Singaporeans and permanent residents primarily to fund their retirement, healthcare and housing needs. Typically, 20% of a person's pay is contributed to CPF every month - only the first S$4500 of monthly salary are liable for CPF contribution. Employer contributes another 14.5%. Portions of CPF are reserved exclusively for potential medical expenses, which include a compulsory basic hospitalisation insurance and a term insurance insuring against death. It would be advantageous for people to apply to upgrade their hospitalisation insurance scheme so that they become liable for minimal or zero percent of hospital bill. The medical system, hence, is not socialized here. The CPF is typically used to buy people's first house or apartmetns, so most people own their home instead of rent it.

Just curious, may I know why you are so interested in these questions?
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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Coearth wrote: Just curious, may I know why you are so interested in these questions?
I assume it's just because most of us like to learn more about what life is like in other places, as told by a person who actually lives there.

I think that a lot of people in the U.S. think of Singapore as that place where they cane people for small criminal violations and the streets are very clean.  There is obviously a lot more than that to know, but the media tends to only tell us stuff that will excite us or frighten us.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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Quite true, I like to learn about life in other country as well. Now that I think of it, I only know about U.S. from the news and media also.
Last edited by Coearth on Fri Aug 03, 2012 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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Coearth wrote: Quite true, I like to learn about life in other country as well. Now that I think of it, I only know about U.S. from the news and media also.
Well let me tell you about life in Texas...
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by Reub »

Coearth, I have heard so many good things about your country's financial situation that I wanted to find out why. Thanks for enlightening me!
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by D1984 »

Coearth wrote: @Reub: In Singapore, there is a 7% Goods and Services Tax (GST) for all product purchases and services. Resident's personal income tax max out at 20% for income of S$320,000 and above. No capital gains tax for personal investment, no bonds and bank savings interest tax, no estate duty tax since 2008, and dividends are taxed as part of personal income only.
I am presuming that when you say that the income tax rate maxes out at 20% there are much lower rates for lower income levels (i.e. it is not a flat 20% tax) and that there are personal exemptions as well. For instance, how much would someone who made, say, $50,000 SGD (just over $40,000 USD at the exchange rates at the time of this post) pay in income tax?

Also, since capital gains and interest are completely untaxed don't people and companies try to set up tax shelters to convert regular income into capital gains and/or interest? They most certainly do in the United States...at least if they are wealthy enough to hire good accountants and tax attorneys.
Singaproe does not manufacture cars. Rather, the government authority sells certs called Certificate of Entitlement (COE) which people have to buy from government in order to be entitled to own a car - due to limited COE supply, currently each COE cost all time high of S$60k to S$80k, and on top of that buyer still have to pay for the price of the car, some of which are now cheaper than the COE itself. The government collects considerable road toll everyday through the islandwide Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) gantry systems which automatically deducts money from each car passing through the gantries during peak hours. I guess the government is somewhat efficient when it comes to tax collection matters.
Doesn't this mean that only the wealthy can afford to own cars and everyone else has to take the bus and MRT? Seems rather class-biased and regressive to me. I can understand why the Singapore government would not want more cars on an already crowded island's roads but why would they not set the tax as a flat percentage of income instead of as a flat amount, so as to discourage the rich (including the government ministers who make millions a year) as much as the poor from driving private cars? If any politician tried to implement such a classist and unfair scheme in the US (in any state) he/she would be out of a job the very next election.
Singapore does not implement welfare system. Emphasis is on self reliance and the social safety net is varied but not really thick
What is ComCare and the PA Scheme, then? It looks to be rather more restrictive than most of our states' welfare systems or our Federal government's SSI (supplemental income if you are old, disabled, or crazy) but it does seem to me to be a form of government-provided welfare. Here in the US our welfare system is funded by the national government but controlled by each state so every state has different rules. In my state (Georgia) and in most of the southern US for that matter there are cash benefits, heating and electricty assistance, free medical care (Medicaid), free lunches at school, education assistance, and food stamps if you are very poor and have children but if you are an unmarried childless adult male you are entitled to basically nothing except to be homeless.
Laid off workers do not receive automatic benefits, rather there are schemes to partial or fully subsidize laid off workers to train them in new skills
When you are laid off in the US you can receive anywhere from 4 months to a year or so (two years in some states but that will end this year as far as I know unless renewed) of unemployment benefits IF you worked for enough time (usually 90 days or 180 days; varies by state) and your employer tells the labor department you were laid off "without cause". If they say you were laid off "for cause" i.e. you were fired (even if you were truthfully not fired for performance and were only laid off through no fault of your own) then you get nothing. Of course if your employer lied about this you can appeal it though teh labor deparment and courts if necessary but that can get time-consuming and expensive and there's no gurantee of any success. To be fair, though, most employers are honest and don't try to lie like this.

Unemployment compensation is not typically seen as "welfare" here since it is more like social insurance that was paid (in the form of Federal and state unemployment insurance taxes) with money that would have been paid to a worker as wages if it wasn't taxed away...and also it is not seen as welfare because if you don't work (or couldn't find a job in the first place) you are obvioulsy not entitled to it.
Food stamps are available to the needy when they applied for it and are qualified.
Here (in my state anyway) they are available with little or no time limit if you have children. If you are childless you can receive them for three months; after that you can just go and starve to death. This seems more than a little unfair since a childless adult will pay far MORE in Federal and State income taxes (thanks to EIC and the refundable child credit which reduce or eliminate tax liability for those who have children) than an an adult with a kid or two even if both make the exact same income or even if the person with children makes a good bit more than the one without.
The government sometimes returns budget surplus to Singaporeans in the form of cash handouts or rebates on municipal services.
Utility rebates? Service and conservancy charge rebates? Growth dividends (was there a growth dividend for 2012 and how much was it)? The only state that does something like that here in the US is Alaska; they have a permamnet fund that pays dividends every year to every Alaskan (usually somewhere between $1000 and $2000 per person per year...so if the dividend was $1200 and a there were four people in a household they would get $4800 in total...and it isn't means-tested; rich, middle-class, and poor get it alike).
n Singapore, the Central Provident Fund (CPF) is a compulsory comprehensive social security savings plan for working Singaporeans and permanent residents primarily to fund their retirement, healthcare and housing needs. Typically, 20% of a person's pay is contributed to CPF every month - only the first S$4500 of monthly salary are liable for CPF contribution. Employer contributes another 14.5%
34.5% of income between the employer and employee sounds very steep until you realize that in the US a worker who mkaes, say, $40,000 USD a year will probably have the employer (if his employer provides health insurance...not all do) paying about six or seven thousand USD per employee every year in health insurance premiums (and the employee has a thousand or two thousand dollar deductible and/or co-payment for any major hospital care or diagnostic tests), plus have about 6% of his own income put into a 401K (tax-deferred savings plan) with another half of that matched by his employer; on top of that, there is a Federal payroll tax for old age and disability social insurance (Social Security) and for Medicare (healthcare provided by the government after you turn 65) that is split between the employer and employee with each paying about 7.6% (although after about $110,000 a year most of the payroll tax no longer applies i.e. it only applies on the first $110K of income...and capital gains, dividends, and interest are payroll tax exempt since it only applies to earned income). It probably works out to just as much or more than what a Singaporean pays.

How much does one have to have in the Ordinary Account invested in the g
Portions of CPF are reserved exclusively for potential medical expenses, which include a compulsory basic hospitalisation insurance and a term insurance insuring against death. It would be advantageous for people to apply to upgrade their hospitalisation insurance scheme so that they become liable for minimal or zero percent of hospital bill. The medical system, hence, is not socialized here.
How much does one have to set aside in a CPF Special Account for medical expenses before it is considered "full" and you can start adding any additional surplus to the Ordinary Account? Also, I was unaware of the term insurance rquirement but was told (about three years ago by a cowworker who was from Singapore) that while CPF and Medisave contributions were mandatory by law that buying the basic insurance policy (Medishield) was not compulsory but only strongly encouraged and done in an "opt-out" (i.e. if someone does not specifically choose not to participate he/she is automatically in the scheme...the "default option" is being enrolled, not being unenrolled) manner to take advantage of behavioral inertia (many 401Ks and employer-provided health insurance policies here work this way). We will have compulsory health insurance here statrting in 2014 and is is NOT popular and may very well be repealed by this time next year.

What interest rates are paid on the Special Account and Ordinary Account and are they fair (at least equal to inflation) or are they kept at below-inflation levels to allow the government a cheap source of credit (financial repression)? How much (last I checked it was $20,000 in the Ordinary Account and more than that in the Special Account) is one mandated to keep in the Special and Ordinary Accounts earning the government-set interest rate before one can start investing in risk assets like mutual funds, unit trusts, bonds, or gold?

How much does one of the upgraded "Enhanced Shield" insurance schemes cost for a healthy 25 or 30 year old? I know when i looked at what Medishield cost it seemed ridiculuosly cheap (the premiums for a whole year for someone my age were less than what my health insurance at work cost for one week) although the maximum annual and lifetime benefit were laughable ($150,000 lifetime benefit IIRC...you could-although it is not too likely-exhaust that in one hospital stay here if it was for something very serious).

Finally, you say it is "not socialized" which is true (since it's not a purely socialized system like Britain's NHS or our Veterans Health Administration) but doesn't the government run some of the hospital groups and polyclinics (I know Singapore has quite a few private clinics and hosptals as well) and subsidize medical care rather heavily for those who use the C-class wards? Didn't this start costing your government too much money since more than a few middle class and even some wealthier people were choosing the C-class wards so now they are means-testing them?
The CPF is typically used to buy people's first house or apartmetns, so most people own their home instead of rent it.
Do they actually own (freehold title in fee simple once the mortgage is paid off) it or is it on a 99-year or 100-year leasehold from the government?

Iisn't it also true that HDB and BTO apartments are unavailable (execpt in special circumstances or by a very limited lottery scheme) to single childless adults so they are forced to pay market prices for housing (which have soared with the last ten years' property bubble and with Singapore''s population growth due to the huge influx or Permanent Residents) since the Singapore government wants to encourage people to breed more children since the population replacement fertility rate is among the lowest in the world?


Finally (and this isn't related to housing or CPF or healthcare or anything else in your post but I wanted to ask a Singaporean about this)...why does your nation still use conscription to man its army? To most in the United States the very idea of forced military or public service is thoroughly loathsome and right up there with slavery. I would imagine a country as free-market oriented as Singapore would have taken Milton Friedman's advice (I'm pretty sure you know who he was but if not he was a famous economist, vociferous defender of the free market and voluntary exchange instead of government controls, and the intellectual father of the all-volunteer military in the United States) and created a national defense force composed of willing volunteers rather than slaves (anyone who is forced to serve under penalty of caning and prison is no freer than a  slave in my opinion). Why has this not been done yet? Would it cost that much more to pay market wages to soldiers when a country can afford to pay its government ministers millions a year?
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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Can people in Singapore criticize the government without fear for their personal safety?
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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Can people in Singapore criticize the government without fear for their personal safety?
People in Singapore can criticize the government as long as they have obvious facts to back it up. The government is not perfect and needs feedback. The Singapore government is quick to sue crtitcs under hard defamantion laws though especially if the criticism is high profile and aimed at individual politicians. In mild cases, the critic can be given a chance to publicly apologize and retract their statement and get away free or with a fine. In serious cases, the critic can get fined and jailed, that's about as far as 'fear of personal safety' goes. The critics will not mysteriously disappear if you know what I mean.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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Coearth wrote: People in Singapore can criticize the government as long as they have obvious facts to back it up. The government is not perfect and needs feedback. The Singapore government is quick to sue crtitcs under hard defamantion laws though especially if the criticism is high profile and aimed at individual politicians. In mild cases, the critic can be given a chance to publicly apologize and retract their statement and get away free or with a fine. In serious cases, the critic can get fined and jailed, that's about as far as 'fear of personal safety' goes. The critics will not mysteriously disappear if you know what I mean.
It sounds to me like the allegedly Asian pre-occupation with "saving face" is alive and well in Singapore?  I've always felt that trait was a hindrance to genuine democracy as transparency and radical tolerance seem to be necessary components.  What about torture, corruption, xenophobia?  How are those elements dealt with in Singapore and are such publically acknowledged or swept under the rug?

To those of us in the USA more informed than that tired old bubble gum caning incident, Singapore is like a vision of what the right-wing Republican party would aspire society towards if they didn't have those pesky left-wing Democrats blocking them at every opportunity.  A vision certainly not as extreme as Pinochet's Chile that implemented Friedmanism, but in that general "politically fascist, economically free" direction.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by Coearth »

@D1984: Yes there are lower tax levels. I just found out tax has decreased again for lower income brackets in 2012. First S$20k income is not taxable, next 10k is taxed at 2%, next 10k taxed at 3.5% ...above 320k taxed at 20%. Hnece Singapore income tax on 20k=S$0, tax on 30k=S$200, tax on 40k=S$550, tax on 50k=550+700=S$1250...tax on 320k=S$42,350. CPF is exempt from income tax and there are personal relief, so a person earning between 30k to 40k may pay little or no tax. D1984, how much is the tax in U.S. on income of US$40k and US$250k (approx. S$320k)?
http://www.iras.gov.sg/irasHome/page04.aspx?id=1190

Hmm...I just found out Singapore corporate capital gains and interest are also now not taxable. Corporate tax for first 100k=0%, up to 300k=8.5%, beyond 300k=17%.
http://www.guidemesingapore.com/taxatio ... -tax-rates
http://www.guidemesingapore.com/taxatio ... -tax-guide
I am not so sure about tax shelter. I guess there may be some tax sheltering going around, and they are probably keping quiet about it. In so far as if the tax shelter activity is illegal, there are cases where people have been uncovered and penalized by law.

To clarify, the COE system is based on free market bidding system - limited number of COE are out up for bidding every month and a median price is used as the month's COE price. Some years back the COE dropped to as little as S$1, due to miscalculated oversupply of COE by government. Nowadays government admited their mistake that caused more cars on the road, so the new calculation method reduces the amount of COE released every month, hence the extremely high COE bidding price now. COE has lifespan of 10 years, guess we have to wait till the COE boomer group reached their 10 year COE lifespan and give up owning cars, then supply demand will hopefully create more reasonable COE prices. I guess teh COE idea is nto well executed and it just turned out this way that only the richer can buy cars now. Putting more tax should be ineffective on the rich, they need to have their car, for pride and appearance, and it will only reduce the number of cars they have or reduce size of their car. Need to tackle the root cause of insufficient roads and carparks instead. And you are right, more people took the MRT (subway system), causing the old MRT system to have a few major breakdowns last year and this year. The MRT is in process of being upgraded now.

As mentioned, the government does runs a handful of social welfare schemes such as ComCare and PA Scheme to help the needy children, disabled, old people in many ways. They are government funded as mentioned and can be considered social welfare. There is less emphasis of automated entitlement to particular welfare scheme. Government encourages people to be self reliant first and build their own safety nets, and seek social welfare handouts as a second or last resort. Government says it does not want people to rely on social welfare and entitlements too much, hoping to create a more competitive workforce and contain the cost of social welfare on country's resources.

Thanks for clarifying unemployment compensation is more like social insurance. There have been talks here about implementing social insurance for unemployment which pays out automatically if conditions are met. Currently, unemployed person here has to apply for help from social scheme. Currently employed low income workers (<S$1700) are entitled to receive social Workfare wage supplement and new skill training subsidy.
http://www.workfare.sg/ The welfare system here is not very fantastic compared to U.S., U.K. and Australia social welfare system.

Yes rebates on uitlity and service and conservancy charges. 2012 Growth Dividend is S$200-S$700, while CPF Medisave top-up is S$300-S$800. The amount received depends on how rich one is. The Alaska government's permanent dividends is nice. Our dividends is not regular and is dependant on the government decision each time. There are different themes, sometimes it is caslled GST rebate, sometimes its growth dividend, etc. http://www.growandshare.gov.sg/FAQs.htm

Thanks for your information on the sytem in U.S. I was wondering about this too. You seem to know the figures well.

The maximum contribution to CPF Medisave account is S$43,500. The basic Medishield hospitalisation coverage is cheap and paid using Medisave account which we cannot easily touch anyway, so not much reason to opt out of Medishield. For a 35 year old, 23% of wage goes to CPF Ordinary Account, 6% to CPF Special Account, 7% to CPF Medisave Account. Special and Medisave account earns 4% interest now, and is tied to higher of 4% or 10 year Singapore government bond yield. Ordinary Account earns 2.5% now, and is tied to the higher of 2.5% or 12 month bank fixed deposit. An extra 1% is now given to first 20k in OA, and up to 40K in SA MA. Interest is not tied to inflation, so there are pros and cons of doing it this way. First 20K of Ordinary Account cannot be invested. Rest of Ordinary Account and all of Special account can be invested. I wrote about limitations and strategy of CPF investment here: http://singapore-permanent-portfolio.bl ... anent.html

The basic Medishield is 150,000 yearly coverage, unlimited lifetime coverage, and patient has to pay part of the hospitalisation bill (co0insurance, deductibles). The full upgraded Enhanced Medishield covers 100% of hospitalisation expenses and cost S$158 per year for age 30 and below. For age 31-40, cost is S$241 yearly, which we are paying using Medisave also, up to limit of S$800. Full Enhanced Medishield maximum payout per year is S$500,000, unlimited lifetime payout.
The government and private groups run subsidized hospitals and polyclinics. I dont think medical subsidy cost is extremely big for government at the moment, given that goernment have surpluses when times are not so bad. I guess automated hospitalisation insurance scheme such as Medishield is there to share some of the medical cost with the private sector. Even in government hospitals, sometimes one chooses non-subsidized treatments for faster service and lesser waiting time.

Normally public housings (we call them flats, like apartments) are 99 years lease. Private condominiums and landed properties can be 99 years or free hold. And yes at the moment singles cannot buy new public housing, and can only buy reslae housing. Some say allowing singles to buy new public housing can reduce demand of resale housing and help lower housing price.

And finally, here are the reasons for conscripting citizens for the army. Singapore has 5 million population, of which 3 millions are citizens. Of the 3 million citizens, minus all the children, teenagers and middle age to old people, we cannot find enough people who are physically fit and enjoys military life, and we ended up with a small number of volunteer professional soldiers that are insufficient to make a significant military force. The professional soldiers are a well paid though. About using money to attract, no amount of money can attract enough people, including me, to join the army voluntarily - some people just dont like physical work or the idea of army at all. Many would prefer suits and ties making more money in financial firms or office job, and some find it against their principles to be involded in the military. In the end, the law is in place so that a sufficiently significant military force can be built to protect the country. For me at least, it gives me a better sense of security to work and live in Singapore, because I know that due to our significant military as a deterrant, neighbouring countries leaders will have second thoughts before trying to harass Singapore, militarily or otherwise, and we know how whimsical political leaders can sometimes be. As a small nation, we cannot afford to be constantly harrassed by other bigger countries. There is a reason that people have called Singapore "Isreal of the East". About financial strength of government, even the government cannot ensure they can always run surpluses constantly, as a change of political leaders can easily make yearly surplus into yearly deficits as we have seen around the world, so building a military cannot depend on financial profitability of a nation. Singapore cannot and I hope will not run with consistent yearly deficits, because that is not financially sustainable. Yes conscripted army is akin to slavery. Government taxation is also akin to slavery. Both are slavery in different forms for the suppossed benefits of the respective nation. Where are the truly free people in the world... in the jungles wearing loin cloths. I also loath being conscripted to the army. 2 years of my life came to standstill in the army, and the subsequent 10 years of yearly recall back to the army for weeks of retraining is disruptive to my personal and work life, not to mention the yearly requirement to pass my physical fitness test or else go back camp for physical trainings. Its harsh, but i guess the alternative of having insignificant military might be harsher. We have to protect our own families and assets because no one can do it better than we ourselves can. There are some commaradie among Singaporean men as most of us can relate to each other about the army. Looking from another perspective, there are some kicks to being in the military. I got to fire live rifles, submachine guns (my favourite) and grenade launchers, and I stood 10 meters away from a tank firing live rounds - that was a literally ground shaking experience. Trekking through forest in the green suit and rile is also a unique experience to some.
Last edited by Coearth on Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by Coearth »

Reub wrote: Coearth, I have heard so many good things about your country's financial situation that I wanted to find out why. Thanks for enlightening me!
You are welcome. I enlightened myself of a few new facts as well!
MachineGhost wrote: It sounds to me like the allegedly Asian pre-occupation with "saving face" is alive and well in Singapore?
Good call. I think it is more like preserving the image of the government. The Singapore government is largely corruption free, and i guess they wish to protect this image people have of them. Hence the government respond swiftly against any perceived slandering and groundless defamation talks. If the criticism turns out to be true and criminal activities are involved, even high ranking government officials have to face the law swiftly. Torture...I think the high living cost, competitive lifestyle, and the large number of people everywhere, are about as tortureous as it gets, and the sun... its summer time all year round and the heat can be a torture here sometimes. About democracy, I think different governments practice different level of democracy, with different levels of freedom and results. I think one size fit all democracy may not exist, as different civilizations have different values.

[Xenophobia - an intense or irrational dislike or fear of people from other countries or as an unreasonable fear or hatred of foreigners or strangers or of that which is foreign or strange] I would say xenophobia is not very prevalent in Singapore. I think Singaporeans have developed a tolerance for foreign talents and workers, maybe because the government keep telling people about the need for foreign talents for the workforce and immigrants to replace populaton, and because it was not so long ago that our grandparents or parents were immigrants themselves.

Political corruptions or mistakes are openly discussed high profile cases in the media, such as the two ongoing corruption charges against 2 highest ranking government officials.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by Coearth »

I also welcome comments from Singaporeans about the Singapore Permanent Portfolio.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by MediumTex »

Coearth wrote:
Can people in Singapore criticize the government without fear for their personal safety?
People in Singapore can criticize the government as long as they have obvious facts to back it up. The government is not perfect and needs feedback. The Singapore government is quick to sue critics under hard defamantion laws though especially if the criticism is high profile and aimed at individual politicians. In mild cases, the critic can be given a chance to publicly apologize and retract their statement and get away free or with a fine. In serious cases, the critic can get fined and jailed, that's about as far as 'fear of personal safety' goes. The critics will not mysteriously disappear if you know what I mean.
Who determines whether a person criticizing the government has "facts to back it up"?

That's an interesting approach to free speech.

What if I stood on a street corner in Singapore with a sandwich board that said "Singapore's political leaders are just a bunch of fascist whores who are willing to sacrifice individual political freedom at the altar of economic growth"?

Would I potentially lose my personal freedom for this display of beliefs and opinions?  If I could use facts to show that the political leaders were, in fact, fascist whores, would I be in a more favorable position?  What about expressions of belief that are too subjective to be verified by a third party?  How are those dealt with?  What happens to people who simply have unpopular opinions?

On the subject of the Singapore military, why is it necessary for Singapore to have a military at all?  Who are Singapore's primary enemies that might attack Singapore if it didn't have a strong military?  Why not just enter into a treaty with a country like the U.S. that promises to defend you if attacked and dispense with the need for a military altogether?  This "outsourcing" of military strength is one of the things the U.S. is best at.  In the last 30 years or so, for example, while China has become the favorite outsourced destination for the efficient production of plastic crap, the U.S. has become the favorite outsourced destination for the efficient production of violence in a military setting.  I'm pretty sure that no one in history has produced violence more efficiently and precisely than the U.S. military-industrial complex.

We can get back to the Singapore PP, but societies with strong economies and limited political freedom are fascinating to look into in more detail.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

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@MediumTex: The the judge and the court would usually be the one determining if there are facts to back up the critizing.

About the billboard sign, here is what i think. You will be brought to police station for questioning and statement, and police department will try to determine whether you are sane or in need of help, and probably let you go back with a warning unless you broke any law in the process such as vandalism. You will be on the news the next day and for 1 week you will be famous, afterwhich people will talk about something else. However if you belong to a political group or political publication media, you may be served a lawyer's letter with usual request to publish public apology and retract your words or else be sued.

About expression of subjective beliefs and unpopular opinions, I think nothing very major will happen if they avoid assulting the integrity of government and leaders, for example if the person called the government incompetent that's an opinion for debate, but by calling some leader corrupt, that is salandering and invitation for lawyer's letter. If a critique  persists with defamatory remark on individual politicians, after receiving lawyer's letter from government or individual leaders, then its a court case and then both sides fight it out in court. People and the government generally tend to "go by law" first and let the system sort it out. If the critique has solid proof, then there is chance he can win the case. Many court cases in the past were due to salanderous remarks about the government and leaders. The law gives a person the right to defend oneself when one's integrity is under attack.

Singapore is surrounded by Malaysia up north and Indonesia to the east, west, and south. Singapore is mainly Chinese population, while Malaysia and Indonesia are mainly Malay population. We all are part of ASEAN and are good neighbours at the moment. As we may know, political relationships can change overnight when new leaders come to power, so nothing is certain. So one day there could be a leader in Malaysia or Indonesia that decide to do something funny with Singapore, as had happened in the past. This is because our closest neighbour Malaysia and Indonesia are vastly bigger countries than us, and tendency is for big to try bully small. Usually, harrassment or threats can came from individual foreign politicians that dont want to see Singapore succeed, and they can try implement funny policies to make thing hard for us, such as stopping trade of critical raw material for us. Regarding a more serious case, Singapore has international contract to buy fresh water from Malaysia to process for drinking water as we have very limited fresh water supply. In the past, near the Malaysia political election times, some Malaysia leaders raised silly issues about the water trade being unfair, and threaten to cut off water supply to Singapore, possibly as a way to divert voters attention away from their domestic issue. Singapore then replied that if Malaysia really broke treaty and cut off water supply, then Singapore will view it as malicious intent to threaten Singapore's survival and Singapore has the right to go on war. It may seem an innocent remark by some foreign politician, but its a dead serious issue for Singapore with harsh implications. Having a significant army puts some weight behind Singapore's words, otherwise what is to stop whimsical politician to threaten our success or survival or take away our assets unlawfully? In Kuwait war, Kuwait fell easily to invading Iraq as Kuwait has no effective army. Then international commitee such as UN or NATO and US come later to the rescue Kuwait but by then damage has been done, Kuwait people suffered, burnt houses and infrastructure has to be rebuild and economy suffered for a while. Deterrence is better than rescue. Seemingly peacefu Kuwait can fall, why not Singapore? So having no military is not an option, since we will not know who will be other country's next political leader. Historically, in world war II singapore was captured by Japanese even though Singapore was then a British colony, and was defended by British army. Foreign country military protection is not a sure thing. Asking for military protection has its limitations, there are political and social implication and higher costs involved for Singapore, and if one day a new anti-war U.S. politicial leader went to power and decided to withdraw U.S. army from Singapore, as the British army had done in the 1960s or so, Singapore will be defenceless again. So a citizen army is better than foreign army as citizen army has more reasons to stay and fight for their families and assets. In case of serious threat in war, the citizen army can fend off attackers while waiting for international help to arrive if necessary. In 1975 there were small scale military actions agains singapore, as well as foreign sedition activities in Singapore to try incite racial riots. There is also the threat of terrorism nowadays. So a domestic military is necessary to guard against unforseen global developments, as a deterence force, and could be useful in times of natural or manmade disaster. I wish we do not need the army, but reality is we do if we wish to live peacefully and safeguard our stability.
Last edited by Coearth on Sat Aug 04, 2012 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by AdamA »

Coearth wrote: @MediumTex: The the judge and the court would usually be the one determining if there are facts to back up the critizing.

About the billboard sign, here is what i think. You will be brought to police station for questioning and statement, and police department will try to determine whether you are sane or in need of help, and probably let you go back with a warning unless you broke any law in the process such as vandalism. You will be on the news the next day and for 1 week you will be famous, afterwhich people will talk about something else. However if you belong to a political group or political publication media, you may be served a lawyer's letter with usual request to publish public apology and retract your words or else be sued.

About expression of subjective beliefs and unpopular opinions, I think nothing very major will happen if they avoid assulting the integrity of government and leaders, for example if the person called the government incompetent that's an opinion for debate, but by calling some leader corrupt, that is salandering and invitation for lawyer's letter. If a critique  persists with defamatory remark on individual politicians, after receiving lawyer's letter from government or individual leaders, then its a court case and then both sides fight it out in court. People and the government generally tend to "go by law" first and let the system sort it out. If the critique has solid proof, then there is chance he can win the case. Many court cases in the past were due to salanderous remarks about the government and leaders. The law gives a person the right to defend oneself when one's integrity is under attack.

Singapore is surrounded by Malaysia up north and Indonesia to the east, west, and south. Singapore is mainly Chinese population, while Malaysia and Indonesia are mainly Malay population. We all are part of ASEAN and are good neighbours at the moment. As we may know, political relationships can change overnight when new leaders come to power, so nothing is certain. So one day there could be a leader in Malaysia or Indonesia that decide to do something funny with Singapore, as had happened in the past. This is because our closest neighbour Malaysia and Indonesia are vastly bigger countries than us, and tendency is for big to try bully small. Usually, harrassment or threats can came from individual foreign politicians that dont want to see Singapore succeed, and they can try implement funny policies to make thing hard for us, such as stopping trade of critical raw material for us. Regarding a more serious case, Singapore has international contract to buy fresh water from Malaysia to process for drinking water as we have very limited fresh water supply. In the past, near the Malaysia political election times, some Malaysia leaders raised silly issues about the water trade being unfair, and threaten to cut off water supply to Singapore, possibly as a way to divert voters attention away from their domestic issue. Singapore then replied that if Malaysia really broke treaty and cut off water supply, then Singapore will view it as malicious intent to threaten Singapore's survival and Singapore has the right to go on war. It may seem an innocent remark by some foreign politician, but its a dead serious issue for Singapore with harsh implications. Having a significant army puts some weight behind Singapore's words, otherwise what is to stop whimsical politician to threaten our success or survival or take away our assets unlawfully? In Kuwait war, Kuwait fell easily to invading Iraq as Kuwait has no effective army. Then international commitee such as UN or NATO and US come later to the rescue Kuwait but by then damage has been done, Kuwait people suffered, burnt houses and infrastructure has to be rebuild and economy suffered for a while. Deterrence is better than rescue. Seemingly peacefu Kuwait can fall, why not Singapore? So having no military is not an option, since we will not know who will be other country's next political leader. Historically, in world war II singapore was captured by Japanese even though Singapore was then a British colony, and was defended by British army. Foreign country military protection is not a sure thing. Asking for military protection has its limitations, there are political and social implication and higher costs involved for Singapore, and if one day a new anti-war U.S. politicial leader went to power and decided to withdraw U.S. army from Singapore, as the British army had done in the 1960s or so, Singapore will be defenceless again. So a citizen army is better than foreign army as citizen army has more reasons to stay and fight for their families and assets. In case of serious threat in war, the citizen army can fend off attackers while waiting for international help to arrive if necessary. In 1975 there were small scale military actions agains singapore, as well as foreign sedition activities in Singapore to try incite racial riots. There is also the threat of terrorism nowadays. So a domestic military is necessary to guard against unforseen global developments, as a deterence force, and could be useful in times of natural or manmade disaster. I wish we do not need the army, but reality is we do if we wish to live peacefully and safeguard our stability.
Absolutely fascinating.  Thanks for taking the time to post.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by smurff »

Fascinating reading. I went to grad school with an engineer from Singapore, who was a genius and well-liked by everyone.  He went on to become a government Minister.

I remember reading that Singapore at one time was trying to convince its educated population to marry and have children. They even set up singles parties to make it easier for men and women to make dates!  I am curious if they are still doing this.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by D1984 »

D1984, how much is the tax in U.S. on income of US$40k and US$250k (approx. S$320k)?
Coearth, assuming one is in the worst situation (all income is from wages or salary, no children, unmarried, rents a home instead of owning, made no deductible 401K or Individual Retirment Account contributions, and takes the standard deduction because one did not have enough deductions to itemize) to be in tax-wise; the total Federal income tax due would be as follows:

For $40K USD = $4,160 USD

For $250K USD = $63,811 USD

Sources: http://www.irs.gov/individuals/article/ ... 96,00.html , www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040ez.pdf

However, the issue is that in the US, how much tax is actually owed is a VERY flexible concept. Our income tax code has been around for longer than SIngapore has been a country (we've had an income tax since 1913 with major tax code revisions in 1954 and 1986 but every year or two some minor tweaks are made to the tax laws). With the tax code being this old, every special interest has had our legislature (Congress) insert breaks for themselves.

If one has several kids and a non-working spouse and makes $40K USD, one will owe little or nothing in Federal income tax and might even get some back. If someone making $40K put the maximum allowed in his 401K each year (around $17K) he would chop his Federal income tax bill to around $3,029. If he had paid mortgage interest because he owned a home instead of renting the mortgage interest would be fully deductible against his income for Federal income tax purposes even though rent is not deductible at all. You can get a tax credit for qualified higher education expenses. Any money your employer pays on your behalf as health insurance is tax-free to you AND deuctible by your employer (this is gradually gfoing to start changing in 2014, though). If someone owns rental real estate, any depreciation (a "paper loss" or phantom loss since it isn't actually a real loss that costs money out of one's pocket) of up to $25,000 can be used to offest actual earned income. Income from cattle/hog/goat breeding or forestry/timber is taxable in most cases at capital gains rates instead of as ordinary income (but the deductions can be used to offset ordinary income which can be used to create a "deduct-high, tax-low type of shelter). Rental income received for renting one's primary residence for less than 14 days is not taxable at all. Truckers and traveling salesmen (and indeed almost anyone who has to be more than 50 miles from their home and stay overnight) gets a "per diem" allowance (a portion of their income that will be considered untaxable since it will be considered as habing been spent on food/lodging) for each day they are away from home...even if the per diem allowance is for more than they actually spent on food and lodging. Money put aside by your employer as an HRA, HSA, or FSA (or MERP if self-employed) to fund your current health care needs (or as a VEBA or 401H for later use in retirement) is not taxable to you. Our tax code is full of loopholes if you are in the right situation to take advantage of them.

Also, not all forms of income are taxed equally. Dividends and long-term capital gains are taxed at a maximum of 0%, 5%, or 15% depending on what tax bracket you are in. Interest income from municipal bonds (bonds issued by cities, public school districts, and sanitation/sewer/water authorities) and state bonds is free of any Federal income tax whatsoever (unless it is subject to Alternative Minimum Tax but that's a whole other story I'm not going to get into at the moment). Income taken as withdrawals from Roth IRAs and Roth 401Ks (savings vehicles where money is put in post-tax but comes out tax-free) taken after age 59 and 1/2 (or taken before that as "substantially equal perioodic payments" ) is not taxable at all on a Federal or state level. Income from life insurance cash value policies is tax free up to basis (and can be totally tax free even beyond basis if "policy was loans" are employed instead of withdrawals). Immediate annuity income is lightly taxed (based on a complicated age-based actuarial cost recovery formula) until basis is recovered and then is taxed as ordinary income. Income from Master Limited Partnerships is typically 80-90% tax deferred until you hit basis (which you will never hit if you keep reinvesting your distributions since you keep increasing your basis that way) and even then the partnerships contiue passing on any depreeciation they have to their owners. Any earned income or gambling winnings of less than $600 are SUPPOSED to be reported to the IRS but since 1099s (Form 1099 is the tax form for non-wage income...wage income is reported on a form W-2) are not issued for these types of income if it is less than $600 per instance then you can guess how much of this income is actually reported (almost none of it). Same thing for tips given to waiters/servers/barkeepers etc...unless their employer makes them, they might report about a third or one half of what they actually make as cash tips. Same goes for any occupation (from lawn maintenance to barbers to doctors) that receives a significant portion of their income in cash.

Finally, while the "official" tax rate on high incomes in the US is 35% above about $360,000 USD of taxable income, in practice almost no one pays that. Most of the REALLY rich (millions of dollars or more) receive most of their income as capital gains (or, for those who run hedge funds and investment partnerships; their actual eanrned income is taxed as capital gains as well thanks to the "carried interest" rules) which is subject to a maximum rate of 15%. Also, if one is rich enough, one can afford to hire very skilled tax help and pay little or nothing at all through clever use of tax shelters (For instance, 501c15 tax-free captive insurance companies were used for this until the IRS put a stop to it back in the early 2000s) or Cayman Islands companies (or companies based in other tax havens) or self-directed LLC IRAs (many suspect this or something similar is what Mitt Romney did and that he paid little or nothing in taxes for several years despite making tens of millions in income which is why he refuses to show his tax returns for any year before 2010 or 2011).

All of the above makes a mockery of the principle of "horizontal equity" (that those who have similar incomes should pay similar tax burdens) but every time a politician tries to change the tax code to make it simpler or fairer the special interest scream blue murder. Even if the code does get changed to make it fairer, within a few years many new loopholes get added and it's back to where it was (or worse).

If you are interested in more details of this there is a board member on here called Moda0306 who is a tax accountant (or tax attorney, I forget which) who could fill you in on the specifics of the US tax code..I am neither an accountant nor an attorney so verything I say above may not be 100% correct but it is accurate to the best of my knowledge.
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by D1984 »

To clarify, the COE system is based on free market bidding system - limited number of COE are out up for bidding every month and a median price is used as the month's COE price. Some years back the COE dropped to as little as S$1, due to miscalculated oversupply of COE by government. Nowadays government admited their mistake that caused more cars on the road, so the new calculation method reduces the amount of COE released every month, hence the extremely high COE bidding price now. COE has lifespan of 10 years, guess we have to wait till the COE boomer group reached their 10 year COE lifespan and give up owning cars, then supply demand will hopefully create more reasonable COE prices. I guess the COE idea is nto well executed and it just turned out this way that only the richer can buy cars now. Putting more tax should be ineffective on the rich, they need to have their car, for pride and appearance, and it will only reduce the number of cars they have or reduce size of their car. Need to tackle the root cause of insufficient roads and carparks instead. And you are right, more people took the MRT (subway system), causing the old MRT system to have a few major breakdowns last year and this year. The MRT is in process of being upgraded now.
The way they are bid might be based on a free market system but forcing someone to pay upwards of $70K is NOT free market regardless of how the government does it. The true free-market solution would be to just allow anyone to import the cars they wanted without any tarriff or COE and to privatize all roads and parking so the market could set the price of how much it costs to own and operate a car.

We actually have something similar to what Singapore has in New York City but it is only for taxicabs and not private cars. Every so often, the NYC government auctions "medallions" (licenses to operate a cab...they are called medallions because a taxi operator has to have it displayed in his cab and the actual display is or at least was a medallion of sorts) and you have to buy one to (legally) operate a cab that is allowed to pick up passengers hailed from the street. The NYC government artificially restricts the supply and one of the medallions can run over $100K USD. This results in a restricted supply of taxis and higher taxi prices for paying customers (and additional revenue to NYC through thousands of tickets issued to illegal cab drivers that operate without medallions because they can't afford them and whose only "crime" is running a business trying to supply a desired service to a customer who is willing to voluntarily pay for that service).
And finally, here are the reasons for conscripting citizens for the army. Singapore has 5 million population, of which 3 millions are citizens. Of the 3 million citizens, minus all the children, teenagers and middle age to old people, we cannot find enough people who are physically fit and enjoys military life, and we ended up with a small number of volunteer professional soldiers that are insufficient to make a significant military force. The professional soldiers are a well paid though. About using money to attract, no amount of money can attract enough people, including me, to join the army voluntarily - some people just dont like physical work or the idea of army at all. Many would prefer suits and ties making more money in financial firms or office job, and some find it against their principles to be involded in the military. In the end, the law is in place so that a sufficiently significant military force can be built to protect the country. For me at least, it gives me a better sense of security to work and live in Singapore, because I know that due to our significant military as a deterrant, neighbouring countries leaders will have second thoughts before trying to harass Singapore, militarily or otherwise, and we know how whimsical political leaders can sometimes be. As a small nation, we cannot afford to be constantly harrassed by other bigger countries. There is a reason that people have called Singapore "Isreal of the East". About financial strength of government, even the government cannot ensure they can always run surpluses constantly, as a change of political leaders can easily make yearly surplus into yearly deficits as we have seen around the world, so building a military cannot depend on financial profitability of a nation. Singapore cannot and I hope will not run with consistent yearly deficits, because that is not financially sustainable. Yes conscripted army is akin to slavery. Government taxation is also akin to slavery. Both are slavery in different forms for the suppossed benefits of the respective nation. Where are the truly free people in the world... in the jungles wearing loin cloths. I also loath being conscripted to the army. 2 years of my life came to standstill in the army, and the subsequent 10 years of yearly recall back to the army for weeks of retraining is discruptive to my personal and work life, not to mention the yearly requirement to pass my physical fitness test or else go back camp for physical trainings. Its harsh, but i guess the alternative of having insignificant military might be harsher. We have to protect our own families and assets because no one can do it better than we ourselves can. There are some commaradie among Singaporean men as most of us can relate to each other about the army. Looking from another perspective, there are some kicks to being in the military. I got to fire live rifles, submachine guns (my favourite) and grenade launchers, and I stood 10 meters away from a tank firing live rounds - that was a literally ground shaking experience. Trekking through forest in the green suit and rile is a unique experience also to some.
When you say "we cannot find enough people" what you REALLY mean is "we cannot find enough people given the pathetic wage Singapore pays to its conscripts". While YOU may not be willing to serve for "any amount of money" (I can't entirely blame you....I myself took the ASVAB-the military aptitude test in the United States-and got the third highest score in my state and told all the recruiters that called that I wouldn't even be interested in serving for a million dollars a year) I would be willing to bet that if Singapore paid its soldiers near, say, what Blackwater/Xe mercenaries make (starting at around $70 or $80K USD annually US) then it would have no problem finding soldiers. Heck, even if it paid slightly more than what the US military pays (we pay around $1500 a month for an E-1 Private so maybe Singapore should pay $1700) instead of the less than SGD $500 a month it pays its Privates then perhaps it wouldn't have a problem attracting enough recruits.

This might cost more in taxes, yes, but while taxes and conscription are both a form of unfreedom it seems (to me anyway) that slightly higher taxes are a far less onerous burden that being forced to serve in a miserable job in crappy conditions for slave-labor wages especially when said job involves the risk of getting shot. Somewhat increased taxes to pay higher military salaries would also spread the burden of your nation's defense more evenly since right now the burden falls almost entirely on the conscripted young men themselves whereas the burden of higher taxes would fall as well on women, first-generation Permanent Residents, the rich (yes, I know rich young men are expected to do NS as well in Singapore but I also have heard that the rich and the politically well-connected can end up in "white-horse" units that do little or no real soldiering or tough duties), and those older than military age.

If Singapore is really so concerned about being invaded in a Kuwait-type manner (although to be fair I understand that Kuwait was doing some cheating as regards horizontal drilling of Iraq's oil so unless Singapore is planning on stealing from Malaysia or Indonesia-and I gather they aren't-then this seems a remote concern) then why not build up a nuclear deterrent instead of trying to deter with a large conventional force of conscripts (which given Malaysia, Indonesia's, or China's population vs Singapore's does not seem like too much of a deterrent). The concept of a nuclear deterrent (independent from its allies) for a small nation is not a new one. Israel's "Samson option" and France's "Force de Frappe" were built up just for this purpose...namely, that an enemy might be theoretically able to kill off all Israelis (or Frenchmen) but that in doing so would face a nuclear attack that would kill more of its own citizens than there were Frenchmen or Israelis to kill in the first place. Singapore is a wealthy enough country to consider such an option (although it may have signed some nuclear-proliferation treaty that prevents this).

Finally, as regards submachine guns and automatic rifles...in America we can own and fire those (subject to certain taxes and restrictions) without being in the military at all; we may not be the freest country in the world but we are definitely freer than some...can a Singapore citizen even own so much as a BB gun or air-powered pellet rifle without fear of being arrested?
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MediumTex
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Re: Singapore Permanent Portfolio 10 Year Backtest

Post by MediumTex »

Coearth,

I really appreciate your posts.  We have a way on this forum of starting with one topic and ending with a completely different one, but it's usually an interesting ride.

It sounds like people in Singapore have a generally favorable opinion of the government, and I suppose that can make up for some gaps in personal freedom here and there.  In the U.S. I think that there is a stronger overall sense of skepticism about the government, and thus we often derive deep enjoyment from criticizing our political leaders and political processes, sometimes because of corruption, and other times just because of stupidity.

I appreciate your sense of deference to your court system.  Reading your posts from the perspective of an American, it's sort of comical to imagine a politician suing a private citizen for critical remarks.  Also, the idea that a judge would be the proper person to determine whether remarks that were critical of the government were based on fact or not is also sort of amusing to me.

It's also interesting to think that people in Singapore would initially assume that a person carrying a sign with a message criticizing the government was insane or had some other mental problem.  If you flipped around the cable channels here in the evening, you might assume that all American political commentators were insane (and I'm not saying they're not :-)).

Welcome to the forum, by the way.
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