Doomsday Preppers

[Wonk]

Anyone seen this show?  It's friggin awesome.  They make my modest preparations look so pedestrian.  The Mrs. and I were watching one of the more recent shows (over dinner) where a guy takes a pig out of his bathtub and hangs it on the back patio like a pinata and cuts it to pieces with a pimped out trench shovel.  The Mrs. was not impressed.  I thought it was great television.

[MachineGhost]

Anyone seen this show?  It's friggin awesome.  They make my modest preparations look so pedestrian.  The Mrs. and I were watching one of the more recent shows (over dinner) where a guy takes a pig out of his bathtub and hangs it on the back patio like a pinata and cuts it to pieces with a pimped out trench shovel.  The Mrs. was not impressed.  I thought it was great television.

I've seen two episodes so far.  At first I was rolling my eyes because most were kooks worrying about and acting on extremely remote or erroroneous probability events, but I'm learning a thing or two, so I'm finding it entertaining.  But obviously, making a bet on a natural Black Swan event at cost of tacky living standards is not a choice I, or many other people, are going to make.

MG

[shoestring]

I do not have cable but I'm optimistic this will find its way to Netflix in a year or two.  I want to watch it.

From what I've seen though, this looks to be extremely promising.

There's one thing that always bothers me about most of these "lifestyle" shows.  Now they're not all like this, but some of them, including this one, make me wonder where in the blue hell do these people get all this money to be able to afford all this?

[Bob]

I do not have cable but I'm optimistic this will find its way to Netflix in a year or two.  I want to watch it.

From what I've seen though, this looks to be extremely promising.

There's one thing that always bothers me about most of these "lifestyle" shows.  Now they're not all like this, but some of them, including this one, make me wonder where in the blue hell do these people get all this money to be able to afford all this?

I have wondered the same thing.  Maybe they're all invested in the PP!!  Also, if I was a prepper and had a large stockpile of food, water, guns, ammo, etc, I would want to keep a low profile.  I would not want it to be broadcast on national TV.  I will admit, however, that the show is entertaining and has stimulated my thinking in this area.

[flyingpylon]

I've been wanting to see what others thought of the show.  I have watched a few episodes... glad to find this discussion here.

I have had "prepper" type thoughts in the past but the thing that has started to become very clear is that this is not just a thing you pay attention to occasionally, it's a total lifestyle.

Not sure I'm very interested in living like that.

Part of me wonders where some of these people get the "fight" that's in them, or why they are so determined to make it through to the other side of whatever calamity they're prepping for that they're willing to sacrifice so much in their current lifestyle.  On the other hand, I do believe it's important to be reasonably self-sufficient... I'm just not sure to what extreme.

Interesting show. One thing I have to wonder about is why people that are so concerned about their security are going on a TV show, but whatever.

[shoestring]

I consider myself of a survivalist or prepper type mindset, but I think the problem is the emphasis gets placed too much on certain things.  The stereotype is on the farm owning seed banking gold hoarding fringe member of society with many firearms and even more ammunition in his possession.

The thing is, I interact with these people sometimes, and the ones with the more visible means of "prepping" often do seem a little out there.  My idea of "prepping" is trying to fix the most likely contingencies first, then branching out.  Yeah I could see myself having a year's worth of food sitting around, I'm the kind of person who would do that.

The problem is, I'm not willing to go out and charge up $14000 on my credit card because I'm convinced that in two years the banks are all going to dissappear and there will be no government to enforce the debt.

In sharp contrast, I spend most of my time worrying about lifestyle sustainability, whether I have enough insurance and savings, etc.  I for instance have no debt of any kind with one exception, just to be honest.  At the moment I can tell you I do in fact owe $382.68 on my credit card.  But I also have $417.62 sitting in an account to pay it, I pay it right now if I wanted to.  The thing is I anticipate a charge of $34.94 in a week and I'll want to pay it all at once at that time.  I don't charge things unless I already have the money to pay cash for them.  The charge card is a convenience/protection.

Anyway the point is, I spend my time worrying about how I can keep surviving, as I am, indefinitely.  I have a huge problem at the moment in that I have no idea how I'm going to replace my current vehicle, I cannot find enough in my budget to save more and I need several years besides.

Then there's the bigger problem that if I got fired today and no one ever rehired me, I'd be in trouble.

It'd actually be kind of nice to worry about whether I had a year's worth of food on hand or not.  It seems like you really need to be either very wealthy to have such concerns, or else willing to burn through your current resources at an insane rate because you're convinced it does not matter.

So I marvel at people who have solved all of these problems I cannot.

[Storm]

A lot of Mormons keep a year's supply of food for their whole family in storage.  They don't go all nuts hoarding gold, guns, ammo, and building fallout shelters, but having a years supply of food is just a good idea.  You never know what will happen.

[moda0306]

Storm,

But it's so much more fun if you can pretend you'll get to shoot something after the world ends.

[MediumTex]

Having a family with young children complicates all of this immensely.

I would also point out that much of the U.S. survivalist community is engaged in a bit of a parlor game (I know this because I have played it).  People in other countries who deal with real issues of grinding poverty and a government that will kill you for saying the wrong thing would probably marvel at a person who was preparing so diligently for events that seem incredibly unlikely to occur in what is by most measures the most prosperous and secure nation on earth.

When you look at the level of "gear" many of these people invest in, the whole effort has a bit of a campy quality to it, the finest example of which is probably Burt Gummer from the "Tremors" movies.

[Wonk]

Two things struck me almost immediately:

1. The show highlights the preppers' daily lives, which is fascinating.  But it also highlights how paranoid and obsessive-compulsive they are (which is the unstated point of producing the show).

2. Irony and failure to conduct thorough SWOT analysis.  At the risk of playing spoiler a bit, here is what stood out:

-The hippies in New England who grow their own food and don't believe in security or weapons because they will just befriend their community in such a dramatic scenario and hope it will be enough to guarantee their safety.

-The family in Texas with the compound made of cargo containers planning a bug-out in 60 minutes if their compound is breached(imo they have 5min max to get out if at all).

-The family in NC who are non-drinking Christians who have hundreds of bottles of alcohol to use as barter and about 100 different firearms.

-The couple in Utah who has an entire stockpile of gourmet survival food, but no way to harvest drinking water.  They also learned a little-used language to communicate to each other so that intruders won't know what they are saying while they sweep the house with handguns and no lights.

-The guy in AZ who nearly blew off his thumb in front of his boys while filming the show(incidentally the same guy who used the pinata pig to test his survival weapon).

For me, I tried to think in terms needs on a timeline.  What will I need in 3 hours, 3 days, 3 weeks, 3 months?  The obvious stood out: means of harvesting and purifying water, calories for sustenance, reasonable personal protection, fire starting, first aid.  I can think of many things that can disrupt life for 3 months, but beyond that people have a way of forming societies again and resuming trade.

Storing items you use on a daily basis and rotating would be a really easy way of preparing without going overboard.

[MachineGhost]

There's one thing that always bothers me about most of these "lifestyle" shows.  Now they're not all like this, but some of them, including this one, make me wonder where in the blue hell do these people get all this money to be able to afford all this?

Seems to me to be pensions and Social Security.  And some invest everything into their stockpile instead of traditional investments.  They're spending 6-8 hours every day literally investing their labor into the thing.

MG

[MediumTex]

There's one thing that always bothers me about most of these "lifestyle" shows.  Now they're not all like this, but some of them, including this one, make me wonder where in the blue hell do these people get all this money to be able to afford all this?

Seems to me to be pensions and Social Security.  And some invest everything into their stockpile instead of traditional investments.  They're spending 6-8 hours every day literally investing their labor into the thing.

MG

Do you think they are efficiently allocating their resources based upon the actual risks they are likely to encounter in life?

It always seems to me that people invest in being prepared for exciting but very unlikely risks, while they may take very few measures to protect against more likely risks such as loss of physical health, loss of mental health, loss of hope, or loss of love and companionship from others.

[BearBones]

Do you think they are efficiently allocating their resources based upon the actual risks they are likely to encounter in life?

It always seems to me that people invest in being prepared for exciting but very unlikely risks, while they may take very few measures to protect against more likely risks such as loss of physical health, loss of mental health, loss of hope, or loss of love and companionship from others.

I find this inspiring. In fact, I'm just going to put aside my bulk food hoarding, peak oil obsessing, PP tweaking, and online blogging, and I'm going to head out and try to find myself a female companion! The ultimate prepping... Oh yeah! Wish me luck, guys.

[MediumTex]

Do you think they are efficiently allocating their resources based upon the actual risks they are likely to encounter in life?

It always seems to me that people invest in being prepared for exciting but very unlikely risks, while they may take very few measures to protect against more likely risks such as loss of physical health, loss of mental health, loss of hope, or loss of love and companionship from others.

I find this inspiring. In fact, I'm just going to put aside my bulk food hoarding, peak oil obsessing, PP tweaking, and online blogging, and I'm going to head out and try to find myself a female companion! The ultimate prepping... Oh yeah! Wish me luck, guys.

Sometimes a little companionship from the opposite sex (or same sex if that's what you like) can make things like prepping for TSHTF scenarios seem a lot less pressing.

Sorry guys, I can't go "recon" camping and play peak oil paintball with you this weekend...I've got a date...and no, I'm not going to ask her if she can field dress a wound or operate a reloader and I'm definitely not going to try your stupid "romantic MRE picnic" idea again.

[dualstow]

I've only seen one episode since I don't have cable. I love the family that that eats their home-farmed tilapia every day, and how the fish are part of a little ecosystem with their garden.

But it's so much more fun if you can pretend you'll get to shoot something after the world ends.

My favorite quote in this thread!

[Gosso]

In a way I have lived through a SHTF scenario, although on a scale from 1 to 10 (10 being the worst) this might have only been a 2 or 3.  In 1998 there was a severe ice storm in Ontario and Quebec that knocked out power for at least a week and even longer in some areas.




But I don't recall it being that horrible, I was just excited to not have to go to school for two weeks!  Almost everyone in the community pulled together, and offered each other help.  People with fireplaces or with generators offered their homes to their neighbours.

Personally I think in some ways a SHTF scenario would be great for society (although the people in the cities might have a harder time).  It would breakdown the walls we set-up around ourselves and force us to rejoin the community.  At some point I agree that food would become a problem...not sure how we would solve that??  But I have to think that human ingenuity would create a solution.

Maybe I think this way because I grew up in a small Canadian town, and I am unaware of the terrifying reality of the world out there.

[MediumTex]

Gosso,

So society didn't descend into lawlessness?

Are you saying that you never heard a single report of people resorting to cannibalism?

What about zombies?  How many zombies did you see?

[Gosso]

Gosso,

So society didn't descend into lawlessness?

Are you saying that you never heard a single report of people resorting to cannibalism?

What about zombies?  How many zombies did you see?

People were quite civil and friendly.  No reports of looting, cannibalism, or zombies.  The only thing that would push a Canadian over the edge is if their hockey team loses in the Stanley Cup Finals...literally...such a sad day for Canada.

[Jan Van]

...literally...such a sad day for Canada.

because of the Stanly Cup loss, right? 

[Gosso]

Here is a short 3 minute clip on the "The Great Ice Storm of '98".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfcNRWefEEU

At the time when it happened I was only 13 years old, so I may not have been aware of the gravity of the situation, but it was nowhere near as terrifying as the clip makes it out to be.  Where are all the reports of the generosity and sense of community that a disaster can have on people?  This just proves to me that if you're watching a "documentary" containing scary music and plenty of 'what ifs', that it is designed to trigger your lizard brain into creating all sorts of horrible scenarios.  Zog I hate the media!

because of the Stanly Cup loss, right?

LOL, of course!!

[Tortoise]

The likely response to a SHTF scenario really depends on which community you're talking about.

There are plenty of documented cases of certain communities descending into looting and violence the moment the opportunity arises. And there are plenty of documented cases of certain other communities pulling together and taking care of each other in a SHTF scenario.

Pick your community wisely.

[Storm]

The likely response to a SHTF scenario really depends on which community you're talking about.

There are plenty of documented cases of certain communities descending into looting and violence the moment the opportunity arises. And there are plenty of documented cases of certain other communities pulling together and taking care of each other in a SHTF scenario.

Pick your community wisely.

Well said, Tortoise.  Personally, I found in my upper middle class suburban neighborhood during hurricane Irene preparations last year it was a nice experience; we met all our neighbors that we hadn't met before and they all said "please feel free to stop by if you need anything, during or after the storm."  On the other hand, look at what happened to the lower 9th ward in New Orleans.

I don't mean to sound classist or racist, but it pays to be in a wealthier neighborhood during SHTF situations, except perhaps, if that neighborhood is right on the border of south central LA during a race riot!

[Gosso]

The likely response to a SHTF scenario really depends on which community you're talking about.

There are plenty of documented cases of certain communities descending into looting and violence the moment the opportunity arises. And there are plenty of documented cases of certain other communities pulling together and taking care of each other in a SHTF scenario.

Pick your community wisely.

So true.  I may have been a little over zealous in my argument that people are generally good.  Quick somebody tell me which logical-fallacy I was using?!  It really depends on their cultural programming, their placement in society, and the seriousness of the situation.  There are a lot of people in my town that I would not invite into my home.

I actually think prepping to a certain degree is a good thing.  It just saddens me to see people putting their lives on hold simply because they believe the world is going to end in a few months or years.  But if it gives them joy and meaning to their lives, then I say go for it.  After all, I'll need somebody to rob when SHTF

[Gosso]

So true.  I may have been a little over zealous in my argument that people are generally good.  Quick somebody tell me which logical-fallacy I was using?!  It really depends on their cultural programming, their placement in society, and the seriousness of the situation.  There are a lot of people in my town that I would not invite into my home.

I actually think prepping to a certain degree is a good thing.  It just saddens me to see people putting their lives on hold simply because they believe the world is going to end in a few months or years.  But if it gives them joy and meaning to their lives, then I say go for it.  After all, I'll need somebody to rob when SHTF

 "Argument By Selective Observation:"
 "also called cherry picking, the enumeration of favorable circumstances, or as the philosopher Francis Bacon described it, counting the hits and forgetting the misses. For example, a state boasts of the Presidents it has produced, but is silent about its serial killers. Or, the claim "Technology brings happiness". (Now, there's something with hits and misses.)
   Casinos encourage this human tendency. There are bells and whistles to announce slot machine jackpots, but losing happens silently. This makes it much easier to think that the odds of winning are good. "

BTW this is a common investing fallacy as well....

Thanks Simon.  Those damn logical-fallacies are so easy to get trapped in.

[MediumTex]

One of the best TSHTF strategies is to simply get to know your neighbors and the members of your community.

It's something you hear about a lot, but it's very true.

We tend to help people that we know, and we tend to ask people we know for help when we need it.