2012 Non-Financial Predictions Thread

[Tortoise]

To complement the 2012 financial predictions thread that Craig started, I thought it might be fun to also make some non-financial predictions for the coming year. The more specific the predictions, the better.

I'll make the first prediction: The war drums that have been beating over Iran in the mainstream media recently are eerily similar to what we saw in the weeks leading up to the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. I predict that by the end of this year, the U.S. will make official military incursions into Iran.

[craigr]

The Euro and/or the EU will break apart to some degree (weaker countries leaving or the entire thing goes kaput).

[jackely]

The world will not come to an end on December 21.

But it will still mostly suck.

Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination and be defeated by Barack Obama in the general election.

[AdamA]

I predict Larry Swedroe will not post on this website in 2012. 

[Reub]

But I'll bet you that he reads it.

[murphy_p_t]

Obama is a 1 term president, unless there is an event like happened in Spain a few years back, sweeping in the Socialists.

[moda0306]

Obama is a 1 term president, unless there is an event like happened in Spain a few years back, sweeping in the Socialists.

Obama v. Mitt matchup just got polled as 49/44, respectively.  I don't think Mitt has a much of a chance if unemployment keeps ticking down.

And, Reub, if Obama's not a pragmatist, I don't know who is... he settled for a previously Republican-designed healthcare bill, completely gave up on global warming legislation, gave in to the Wall Street billionaires that a true Socialist idealogue would have abandoned to the wolves while nationalizing banks, and has knocked off several high-ranking Al Qaida at the risk of pissing off Muslim's in the middle east.  The only taxes he wanted to raise was on $200k plus in income, and he had to repeat this about 1,000 times before the 2008 election to calm voters' fears of tax hikes, and he STILL managed to get the plurality of $200k+ income voters.

Part of the stimulus package was a bunch of supply-side tax cuts in the forms of bonus depreciation and NOL carrybacks.  His payroll tax cut serves EVERYONE making wage income... a couple of $100k earners would see a $6,000 tax reduction if his 3% payroll tax cut had been enacted, and $6,000 for the employer to boot!!  Further, it helps self-employed individuals and business owners paying SE tax more than anyone, giving them back both sides of their SE tax.

In no way is this guy an idealogue.

[Coffee]

Gingrich steals the nomination.  Then loses the general election when it's revealed that he's having an affair with (yet another) staffer.

[cabronjames]

A Libertarian candidate will be a significant force in the Pres election, with at least 3% of the popular vote, & influencing the election outcome in at least 2 states' electoral votes.  The Libertarian party will try to recruit Ron Paul. If Paul declines, Gary Johnson will attract the majority of the Paul supporters.

[MachineGhost]

You forgot his signing the bill to allow indefinite detention of Americans anywhere in the world.

If Bush was a RINO, then Obama is a DINO.

MG

And, Reub, if Obama's not a pragmatist, I don't know who is... he settled for a previously Republican-designed healthcare bill, completely gave up on global warming legislation, gave in to the Wall Street billionaires that a true Socialist idealogue would have abandoned to the wolves while nationalizing banks, and has knocked off several high-ranking Al Qaida at the risk of pissing off Muslim's in the middle east.  The only taxes he wanted to raise was on $200k plus in income, and he had to repeat this about 1,000 times before the 2008 election to calm voters' fears of tax hikes, and he STILL managed to get the plurality of $200k+ income voters.

[MediumTex]

You forgot his signing the bill to allow indefinite detention of Americans anywhere in the world.

If Bush was a RINO, then Obama is a DINO.

MG

And, Reub, if Obama's not a pragmatist, I don't know who is... he settled for a previously Republican-designed healthcare bill, completely gave up on global warming legislation, gave in to the Wall Street billionaires that a true Socialist idealogue would have abandoned to the wolves while nationalizing banks, and has knocked off several high-ranking Al Qaida at the risk of pissing off Muslim's in the middle east.  The only taxes he wanted to raise was on $200k plus in income, and he had to repeat this about 1,000 times before the 2008 election to calm voters' fears of tax hikes, and he STILL managed to get the plurality of $200k+ income voters.

Obama reminds me a bit of a Democratic version of Richard Nixon.

- Both misunderstood the depth of the economic problems the country was facing and thus had largely ineffective economic policies.

- Both campaigned to change a failed foreign policy, but once in power basically stuck with the status quo.

- Both were highly intelligent individuals who had trouble governing effectively.

- Both were in office during a period of deep disillusionment with the direction of the U.S., and yet seemed not to understand the depth of this feeling or its roots.

- Both had the opposite party in control of Congress for much/all of their terms, and had trouble working effectively with Congress on much of anything.

- Both followed goofy semi-delusional Texans from the other party who had allowed the U.S. to become entangled in expensive and ideologically driven military adventures.

[moda0306]

MG,

Better example than the rest of mine put together... can't believe I didn't think of that.

Do you remember the pre-superbowl Bill O'Reilly interview with the President?  An idealogue would have stabbed O'Reilly in the throat with a pen by the end of that thing... I couldn't belive Obama kept his cool... I'm not saying I'm a fan of much of what he does, or using great speeches to make up for good policy, but an idealogue he ain't!

[MediumTex]

MG,

Better example than the rest of mine put together... can't believe I didn't think of that.

Do you remember the pre-superbowl Bill O'Reilly interview with the President?  An idealogue would have stabbed O'Reilly in the throat with a pen by the end of that thing... I couldn't belive Obama kept his cool... I'm not saying I'm a fan of much of what he does, or using great speeches to make up for good policy, but an idealogue he ain't!

Almost anyone who had been elected President in 2008 would have had a very tough time.

When you have an economy this sick and so many people disillusioned with the state of things it's hard for the government to do much that is going to seem right.

Look back to the last time the U.S. experienced a period of deleveraging following the bursting of an asset bubble.  Hoover is considered to be a failed President (though he was a very intelligent and capable person), but FDR's policies from 1933-1940 didn't achieve much better results.  If FDR had left office after 1940, I'm pretty sure he would be viewed differently.  The fact is, periods of deleveraging just kind of suck.

[MediumTex]

Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination and be defeated by Barack Obama in the general election.

The key moment in the campaign will be when Obama goes over to Romney during a televised debate, sticks his hand up his jacket, and turns him off.

I honestly have no idea what a die-hard Mitt Romney supporter looks like.  Where would you look for such a person?  Simply hating Obama does not (and IMHO cannot) make one a true believer in Romney.

I understand the profile of a strong Obama supporter, as I understand the profile of a strong George W. Bush supporter. 

I just don't know who Romney's core constituency is.  Who has a picture of Romney on their refrigerator (other than perhaps his mom)?

In politics, broad and thin support can give way at any moment.  Ask George Bush Sr.

[moda0306]

MT,

Yes... I insisted after 2008's events happened that any incumbent party would have been screwed... and that any president was going to have an incredibly hard time.

Though people are fickle... I am near-positive that if he avoids scandal, and unemployment keeps ticking down, he'll be reelected.  Yes, this is partially due to very weak republican candidates.

Often it's the "direction" of the unemployment rate & economy, not its current state, that affects the population's view of the current president.  The economy wasn't much better in 1984 than 1980, but it appeared to be "on the mend" and things were moving in the right direction... look what a difference it made for the incumbent.

[AdamA]

Do you remember the pre-superbowl Bill O'Reilly interview with the President?  

I never understood why he did that interview.  Also, I don't know why he's on The Tonight Show from time to time. 

[moda0306]

MT,

Maybe a very wealthy private-equity capitalist likes where he's coming from, and is sick of being the brunt of populist hatred.  Not caring much about social issues or war (nor Mitt's flip-flopping on them), he basically cares about tax rates and having a president that defends his right to buy low, sell high, and not be looked at as "different" from other entrepreneurs out there.  

I'm trying really hard here... as you can probably tell.

[AdamA]

I understand the profile of a strong Obama supporter...

What is that profile?

[MediumTex]

I understand the profile of a strong Obama supporter...

What is that profile?

Oprah Winfrey, most of the people who work at MSNBC, and a lot of college professors.

If you are one of these intellectual urbane liberal elite types, I'm sure you would love Obama.  He is the epitome of that kind of person (and I'm not saying there is anything wrong with people like that).

[MediumTex]

MT,

Maybe a very wealthy private-equity capitalist likes where he's coming from, and is sick of being the brunt of populist hatred.  Not caring much about social issues or war (nor Mitt's flip-flopping on them), he basically cares about tax rates and having a president that defends his right to buy low, sell high, and not be looked at as "different" from other entrepreneurs out there.  

I'm trying really hard here... as you can probably tell.

You are describing why a man might be attracted to a prostitute.

I'm talking about true love.

[Lone Wolf]

I honestly have no idea what a die-hard Mitt Romney supporter looks like.  Where would you look for such a person?  Simply hating Obama does not (and IMHO cannot) make one a true believer in Romney.

I think that Romney's angle is going to be "executive competence" and being "all about the economy".  The people I've talked to that really like Mitt above all the other candidates seem to be suffering from a sort of "incompetent chief executive fatigue" that has stretched throughout the entirety of the Barack W. Bush years.  Basically, they view Mitt as pragmatic, pro-capitalist, non-ideological, and able to "successfully run stuff".

These people tend to not care very much about particular issues and tend to be more focused on someone knowing what they are doing.  That's why I think that a strong Romney supporter is much less bothered by flip-flopping (while this would drive a Ron Paul supporter nuts.)

Of course, this indirectly frames Romney in the context of current and previous Presidents.  It plays off of the perception that George W. Bush and Barack Obama have been bumbling and ineffectual ideologues with poor instincts as to how the economy functions.

Whether they are accurate or not, I always find the views of supporters to be interesting.  (Note that my own views do not necessarily in any way resemble the views below.)

Clinton - Practical, empathetic, economically skilled and unfairly persecuted.
Bush - Patriotic, authentic, fearless and pro-growth.  Also possessing of an unmatched ability to dodge thrown shoes.
Obama - Inspirational, highly intelligent, thoughtful and reasonable.  Bonus: Possibly the Messiah.
Romney - Pragmatic, competent, ready and able to lead, and laser-focused on the economy.  Also, incredible hair (that is without peer now that Rick Perry has left the race.)

Edit: Can anyone do one for John Kerry?  I was never able to get a sense of a good "story" for him in the 2004 election apart from his service in Vietnam.

[MediumTex]

I honestly have no idea what a die-hard Mitt Romney supporter looks like.  Where would you look for such a person?  Simply hating Obama does not (and IMHO cannot) make one a true believer in Romney.

I think that Romney's angle is going to be "executive competence" and being "all about the economy".  The people I've talked to that really like Mitt above all the other candidates seem to be suffering from a sort of "incompetent chief executive fatigue" that has stretched throughout the entirety of the Barack W. Bush years.  Basically, they view Mitt as pragmatic, pro-capitalist, non-ideological, and able to "successfully run stuff".

Sort of like a taller version of Ross Perot.   :D

Edit: Can anyone do one for John Kerry?  I was never able to get a sense of a good "story" for him in the 2004 election apart from his service in Vietnam.

Kerry: Patriotic, liberal authority figure, had "European" look that suggested sophistication, illegitimate child of Jay Leno and Paul Mccartney, had same name as other Vietnam hero who lost a foot.

[jackely]

I think that Romney's angle is going to be "executive competence" and being "all about the economy".

If the economy keeps getting better then I would expect issues of war and peace come to the foreground. So then it will be the winner of the Nobel
Peace Prize against someone who has promised to dispatch an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf and prepare for war with Iran on his first day in office. This is not to say that Obama has done anything to deserve the peace prize but at least he seems to prefer small wars to big ones. What does it say about the Republican party that they keep turning out candidates like McCain and Romney? I think Pat Buchanan is spot on when he refers to them as "The War Party".

This is why I predicted that Obama will win in an earlier thread. And the same goes for any of the other Republican candidates except Ron Paul. They are about the most bloodthirsty bunch of warmonger politicians I think I have ever listened to and unless the economy really goes into the tank again I don't think they have a chance.

[MediumTex]

I think that Romney's angle is going to be "executive competence" and being "all about the economy".

As I recall, Herbert Hoover was the only President in the last hundred years who had a background as a successful high profile businessman (he was a mining engineer and manager) before he entered politics.

Other former CEO types like Robert McNamara and Ross Perot have had difficulty transitioninng into public office.

In other words, I think that the whole "Romney narrative" may be misleading in that what he is describing (a former senior corporate executive makes the jump to successful President) has never actually been done before.

[Storm]

The world will not come to an end on December 21.

But it will still mostly suck.

Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination and be defeated by Barack Obama in the general election.

Right on!  I think we have a winner!