Volatility

[jackely]

This is a question for the old-timers who have been keeping an eye on the PP for a while.

Is the recent volatility normal or is this unusual? I mean we go from gold and stocks seemingly on the rise with treasuries going down and then all of a sudden it completely reverses as it did today.

This is not to question the PP strategy. I'm completely sold on it and even more so with all of the volatility.Who could ever time any of this with any degree of accuracy?

But I did anticipate that the movements would be more gradual.

If the answer is that it's not normal do you recall any other times like this?

[Gumby]

The current market volatility has not been seen since 2008-2009. So, yes, we are seeing some very severe gyrations. As you noticed, the PP is performing exceptionally through all of it — with hardly any volatility.

I'm not usually one to try predict the future, but this is kind of market volatility you would expect when the world is on the verge of an economic catastrophe. I'd be freaking out if I didn't have a Permanent Portfolio.

Honestly, I'm impressed that craigr is keeping true to his 30-day media fast. The world is practically hanging by a shoe-string!

[jackely]

I'm not usually one to try predict the future, but this is kind of market volatility you would expect when the world is on the verge of an economic catastrophe. I'd be freaking out if I didn't have a Permanent Portfolio.

I do not recall any time in my life, when I was paying close enough attention, that the world was not on the verge of economic catastrophe, or, even worse, nuclear Armageddon. You hear this long enough and you say wake me in the morning and tell me all about it. I accept that your predictions might very well be absolutely correct and you probably have very good and convincing arguments, but if so I will need a good night's sleep any way, won't I?

The fascinating thing about these swings, watching the PP, is how rapidly they occur. Treasuries up 7% in one day? And tomorrow I expect there may be news out of Europe about how they have finally solved the crisis once and for all and then every one will go back to stocks until we get another headline about Greece or whatever. Why don't the Europeans just shit or get off the pot and do whatever it is they are going to do? Or is there actually some grand scheme in all of this.

I don't think this would be happening before the internet age. News just travels too fast nowadays. I hadn't heard of Craigr's 30 day news fast but it sounds like an excellent idea to me.

[Gumby]

I do not recall any time in my life, when I was paying close enough attention, that the world was not on the verge of economic catastrophe, or, even worse, nuclear Armageddon.

I seem to remember there were a few good days between 1994 and 2001.

[murphy_p_t]

from Clives article: "Since I don’t have access to the daily data, I can’t rule the possibility that the perception of higher volatility is caused by the markets being more volatile on a daily basis."

I don't find this article compelling.

I think another article is more insightful. I think it will be of interest to PP holders as it discusses the major asset classes & a thesis for increased volatility, tied back to recent FED actions.

"A new mega-theme has emerged – call it the “conversation of volatility.”?  To understand it, begin with the three most important trading markets in the world – stocks, bonds and currencies."

here's the link: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ ... ation.html

[jackely]

I do not recall any time in my life, when I was paying close enough attention, that the world was not on the verge of economic catastrophe, or, even worse, nuclear Armageddon.

I seem to remember there were a few good days between 1994 and 2001.

Yes, those were some good years as I recall but I remember even then there were those predicting catastrophe ahead. And it turned out they were actually correct when the dot.com bubble burst.

[Gumby]

I am on the tail end of the Gen-Xers, so I grew up during the largest peacetime economic boom and never knew of anything other than prosperity as my reality. So, it used to be very difficult to imagine what bad times were like. Now I see rioting in the streets and no hope for the middle class. My worldview is very different now and it's shocking to me (simply because it's new to me).

When you said "old timers" I didn't think you actually meant it