Leaving the PP for something else?

[arizonafan1]

Great discussion and analogies on a previous post regarding how long it took to convert to the PP.

So I wanted to know if anyone knows someone who was using the PP that later swithched to something else, and if so to what?

[TripleB]

I doubt there will be many due to recency bias and time frames of internet discussion boards. Most people didn't know about the Permanent Portfolio until a few years ago. As the internet got more and more popular, people learn of weird things like the PP.

Since most people didn't know about the PP until recently, that means most people using the PP didn't convert until recently.

Given the performance of the PP compared to any other portfolio in recent years, and given the huge uncertainty in the market today, I find it unlikely anyone who switched to the PP within the last few years, would be switching out of it.

I can definitely forsee that in 5 or 10 years when the stock market and economy recovers, people using the PP, getting boring 7% annual returns compared to 30% returns of the stock market, may switch out. Personally, if the stock market is going at 30% and my PP is at 7%, I'd be thrilled as long as inflation is around 3% and I am getting 4% real returns.

[Storm]

If anyone on the forum leaves the PP, chances are they won't be checking the forums to update us on their progress.  Such is the nature of Internet forums...

[MediumTex]

If anyone on the forum leaves the PP, chances are they won't be checking the forums to update us on their progress.  Such is the nature of Internet forums...

I wish there was some mechanism to do an exit interview, but with the internet you never know when the last time you will see someone.

One day they are there talking PP trash, and then POOF, just an empty socket.

I've been hanging around internet forums long enough to experience people dying who I have gotten to know pretty well.  It's a strange and unsettling experience.  It gives you a sense of how well you can get to know someone, even though you have no idea what their name is or what they look like.

When I have met someone in real life that I first got to know on the internet I'm always tempted to say: "all THAT came out of YOU?"

[HB Reader]

I doubt there will be many due to recency bias and time frames of internet discussion boards. Most people didn't know about the Permanent Portfolio until a few years ago. As the internet got more and more popular, people learn of weird things like the PP.

Since most people didn't know about the PP until recently, that means most people using the PP didn't convert until recently.

Given the performance of the PP compared to any other portfolio in recent years, and given the huge uncertainty in the market today, I find it unlikely anyone who switched to the PP within the last few years, would be switching out of it.

I can definitely forsee that in 5 or 10 years when the stock market and economy recovers, people using the PP, getting boring 7% annual returns compared to 30% returns of the stock market, may switch out. Personally, if the stock market is going at 30% and my PP is at 7%, I'd be thrilled as long as inflation is around 3% and I am getting 4% real returns.

TribleB,

I think we flatter outselves.  The percentage of investors that have even heard of the Permanent Portfolio is still extremely small.  The amount of money committed to it is infinitesimal compared to the combined to the combined gold, stock and Treasury markets.

One or two years of good stock market returns will cause all but the most dedicated PP veterans to defect.  I almost did during the late 1990s.

[pershing83]

I personally know of no one with the exception of my familv and a guy I met on a financial board that owns PRPFX and no one that has contructed his own pp.  Someone must know about it... gone to 13-14 bil.

There are some that do know,get this:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... or-1000/3/

[Coffee]

The nice thing about the variable portfolio is that it provides a mechanism to go crazy with stock speculation, should things take off.