The Cockroach Portfolio

[Kevin K.]

So here's an interesting portfolio that's specifically designed to be recession-proof:

https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/03 ... recession/

Unlike the PP or GB it's not being pitched as an all-weather allocation: it's for risk-averse retirees.

One of the things I really like about this is that it's completely "inoculated" against the A.I. exposure of the U.S. Total Stock or S & P 500 funds used in the PP and GB. Of course it's got 60% in equities vs. 25-40% for the PP and GB respectively but it's all companies that provide "must-have" products.

No cash allocation would be a serious real-world problem for someone who went all-in on this. I'd go with 15% VTIP (short term TIPs, 2.5 year duration) to make it even more defensive and add 5% in a T-bill mm account.

Seems like a pretty good bunker to me. Plus I kind of like the name.

[Smith1776]

Interesting idea. I like the idea of defensive equity tilts.

I wonder how such a portfolio would perform if the sector specific allocations were replaced with low volatility fund that is sector agnostic?

[Kevin K.]

Thanks for chiming in. I'm glad to have the opportunity to look up your Iron Wealth Portfolio website. I'd be curious to know which funds you'd use for a U.S.-based investor. In any case I like what you've done in applying the lessons learned from Harry Browne to an elegantly simple "all weather" portfolio.

Regarding the Cockroach portfolio, the author says at the outset that it's designed to be a recession-proof retiree portfolio - period. So that's a different mindset than what's behind the PP, GB or your Iron Wealth portfolio. There are no assets for prosperity included in it. Where I see a use case for this would be as an efficient way to hedge against the AI bubble bursting and/or further currency debasement - both of which seem likely to me. So for example one could own global equities with something like VT as one's prosperity bet, keep 5-10% in cash for liquidity and put the rest in the Cockroach. But that's a lot more complex and is definitely market timing.

[mathjak107]

it looks interesting .

but all these defensive portfolios seem to back test well .

it’s usually when we commit to one that it now behaves differently.

like 2022 which didn’t follow the script as risk was totally off and even defensive portfolios had losses that were pretty nasty

[Smith1776]

Thanks for chiming in. I'm glad to have the opportunity to look up your Iron Wealth Portfolio website. I'd be curious to know which funds you'd use for a U.S.-based investor. In any case I like what you've done in applying the lessons learned from Harry Browne to an elegantly simple "all weather" portfolio.

Regarding the Cockroach portfolio, the author says at the outset that it's designed to be a recession-proof retiree portfolio - period. So that's a different mindset than what's behind the PP, GB or your Iron Wealth portfolio. There are no assets for prosperity included in it. Where I see a use case for this would be as an efficient way to hedge against the AI bubble bursting and/or further currency debasement - both of which seem likely to me. So for example one could own global equities with something like VT as one's prosperity bet, keep 5-10% in cash for liquidity and put the rest in the Cockroach. But that's a lot more complex and is definitely market timing.

I am by no means an expert on the products available in the U.S. market. However, what I did do is ask Gemini Pro how a U.S. investor would implement something equivalent and it came back with this:

U.S. Implementation of the Iron Wealth Portfolio
Here is the list of U.S.-listed tickers that directly replicate the asset allocation of the Canadian portfolio:

75% AOM (iShares Core 40/60 Moderate Allocation ETF): The Canadian VCNS fund targets a 40% global equity and 60% global fixed-income split. While Vanguard uses the word "Conservative" and iShares uses "Moderate," AOM provides an identical 40/60 single-ticker solution for the U.S. market.

10% PDBC (Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF): This is a premier U.S. equivalent for broad commodity exposure. It is highly liquid and structured to avoid issuing a complex K-1 tax form at year-end. COMB (GraniteShares Broad Commodity ETF) is another viable alternative.

5% CEF (Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust): This exact asset is cross-listed. U.S. investors can buy the identical Sprott trust on the NYSE American exchange using the exact same CEF ticker.

2.5% IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) / 2.5% ETHA (iShares Ethereum Trust ETF): The U.S. market does not currently feature a dominant, single-ticker spot ETF that blends Bitcoin and Ethereum into one fund like Canada's ETC. The cleanest implementation is splitting the 5% allocation equally between these two highly liquid spot ETFs.

5% SGOV (iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF): To mirror the ultra-short government bond/cash proxy of VVSG, SGOV strictly holds U.S. Treasury bills with maturities of three months or less, offering high liquidity and minimal duration risk.

Looks very reasonable to me!

[Kevin K.]

Thank you!