Bond momentum

[ochotona]

interesting enough powell made a statement this morning

“Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’ provide policy challenges”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux.
“We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks,” the central bank leader said at a policy conference”

which is exactly why i said for a long time now , avoid extended bond funds

Paul Novell's Tactical Bond strategy is in the public domain, and is easy to understand. If you change this Stockcharts PerfChart to 6 months, you will see that TLT is dead last right now. That's what the strategy is... at the end of each month, buy the three bond ETFs with the highest 6 month total return.

Right now, it's high yield, emerging market bonds, and short term US Treasuries. Or if you don't like the others, just the ST Treasuries. Just not TLT right now.

[mathjak107]

i use fidelity conservative bond , fidelity short term bond and fidelity intermediate term bond .

nothing goes out more then around 3.6 years

[ochotona]

Fidelity FBND is pretty good for an aggregate bond fund

[mathjak107]

in my opinion it goes out longer than i would risk today .

no reason to really go out longer than 3.5 years or so with pending stag flation or higher inflation with these tariffs, even if reduced

fbnd won’t provide much more income and it takes on more interest rate risk .

this is why i am staying with the three bond funds i am with now .

fidelity conservative bond

fidelity short term bond

fidelity intermediate term bond

our unusually high cash position the last two months has been bringing in 10k a month with very little interest rate risk .

still holding at about 25% equities in this environment and 7% gold . all the rest shorter term bond funds and money markets

[ochotona]

I don't own FBND, I also think it's too long. I'm keeping ~2 years average in my port. I was just saying, it's better than AGG, BND.