So with the recent developments in the market - and now 11+ years of flat-to-down market returns, I was wondering when people think the market will become bullish once more...
Personally, our macroeconomic problems seem fairly daunting - national debt levels, aging population leading to higher social security and medicare costs. Also, growth expectations are incredibly low going forward.
At the same time, the market is trading at much more reasonable multiples today - PE10 is currently 20 and TTM PE is around 13. Also, the American economy seems to begin to recover and flourish just when you think it is down for the count.
Thoughts?
The next bull market...
Moderator: Global Moderator
-
Reido
Re: The next bull market...
I would be very surprised if the next U.S. secular bull market for stocks started before 2016.
It could be much longer than that, though. The Japanese have been waiting over 20 years for a new secular bull market for stocks. Meanwhile, their stock market is currently over 75% below its levels of two decades ago.
It could be much longer than that, though. The Japanese have been waiting over 20 years for a new secular bull market for stocks. Meanwhile, their stock market is currently over 75% below its levels of two decades ago.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
-
Reido
Re: The next bull market...
MT - I've heard theories that the Japanese situation may be a result of an underaggressive central bank - I know they have low interest rates, but is that a possibility?
Re: The next bull market...
Underaggressive?Reido wrote: MT - I've heard theories that the Japanese situation may be a result of an underaggressive central bank - I know they have low interest rates, but is that a possibility?
They've had near zeo interest rates for years and years and years. They've done QE. They've intervened to weaken the yen repeatedly.
What more could they have done?
The only one I've heard say that they weren't aggressive enough is Bernanke in some of his writings, but I think that was before he realized that this liquidity trap stuff is harder to deal with than his academic models may have suggested.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: The next bull market...
If we believe in regular cycles. then the four year (42 month) Kitchin or primary cycle would have the next cyclical bull starting late 2012.
As others have pointed out we may well still be in a secular bear market at that time, so the strength of the bull market will probably be only the inverse of what seems to be a present cyclical bear.
As others have pointed out we may well still be in a secular bear market at that time, so the strength of the bull market will probably be only the inverse of what seems to be a present cyclical bear.
Re: The next bull market...
...and if we don't?magneto wrote: If we believe in regular cycles...
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone."
Pascal
Pascal
Re: The next bull market...
It is human nature to look for patterns whether they are there or not.