Dollar Milkshake Brent Johnson throwing nod to Permanent Portfolio

[whatchamacallit]

https://investorhour.com/episodes/nothi ... in-advance

Specifically at minute 39

[barrett]

He skips the 30-year Treasurys and instead throws in 20% of real estate. Not really the same thing.

[whatchamacallit]

Yeah I hear he does say real estate instead of long bonds. Probably not a bad portfolio either.

At 42:45 Dan Ferris brings up Terry Coxon and Harry Browne though. It was cool to hear in something I wasn't expecting to hear about it in.

[barrett]

Yeah I hear he does say real estate instead of long bonds. Probably not a bad portfolio either.

Probably not but definitely not comparable to a PP. I tend to look at real estate as a combination of maybe 50% hard-asset inflation hedge with the other 50% being a prosperity tilt. So no deflation protection. That last part seems almost laughable at the moment but let's see where we are in another year or so.

[Hal French]

Interestingly, the Permanent Portfolio Fund, PRPFX, has real estate exposure, one of its notable deviations (along with Swiss Francs and silver) from the HBPP. As of this writing, PRPFX is down 13.83% YTD.

[I Shrugged]

Interestingly, the Permanent Portfolio Fund, PRPFX, has real estate exposure, one of its notable deviations (along with Swiss Francs and silver) from the HBPP. As of this writing, PRPFX is down 13.83% YTD.

that's better than I'm doing!

[PrimalToker]

I always figured he took his dollar milkshake theory from Harry Browne. Looks my suspicions were correct. Harry explained in his radio shows that gold is a competing currency to the dollar. When inflation hits, first the dollar goes up. Only with sustained inflation of something that hurts people like 9% will people give up on the dollar and move to gold.

[johnnywitt]

Developed RE are extremely correlated with Developed Equities.

The 'Jacob the Rich' Portfolio is PP like.

25% Gold
25% Sovereigns (long duration for the volitility???)
25% Equities
25% RE

I've always maintained that HB derived his portfolio with full knowledge of the aforementioned portfolio.

[Hal]

Developed RE are extremely correlated with Developed Equities.

The 'Jacob the Rich' Portfolio is PP like.

25% Gold
25% Sovereigns (long duration for the volitility???)
25% Equities
25% RE

I've always maintained that HB derived his portfolio with full knowledge of the aforementioned portfolio.

That's interesting. It's identical to Marc Fabers portfolio...
Also I do wonder if a REIT is equivalent to direct ownership of land

ps:https://thefinancefriday.com/2021/06/04 ... rope-rich/

[mathjak107]

No a reit is not the same as owning land directly .

As an example I owned a private reit that eventually went public .

Dividends are important to reits and many will do things that are just bad business to support them .

The one I had struggled to keep the dividends up in 2008 ..so they used the money they were supposed to buy more property with as well as borrowed money to support the dividend .

It’s is decades now and the reit still has not been able to hit the offering price

[mathjak107]

Many dr Frankenstein versions of the pp have tried real estate in the pp and all found the same thing wrong with it .

It isn’t like a stock or bond which is the same everywhere..real estate is highly localized and that makes its outcome very variable .

Remember , prior to 2008 we didn’t even see national recessions…we saw rolling recessions where first the rust belt got hit , another time it was the oil patch , then New England got hit , so on and so on so to many variables with real estate for something like the pp

[Hal]

Thanks Mathjak,
Appreciate your insights

[johnnywitt]

Developed RE are extremely correlated with Developed Equities.

The 'Jacob the Rich' Portfolio is PP like.

25% Gold
25% Sovereigns (long duration for the volitility???)
25% Equities
25% RE

I've always maintained that HB derived his portfolio with full knowledge of the aforementioned portfolio.

That's interesting. It's identical to Marc Fabers portfolio...
Also I do wonder if a REIT is equivalent to direct ownership of land

ps:https://thefinancefriday.com/2021/06/04 ... rope-rich/

Firstly, I would say, Marc Faber's Portfolio is identical to the OG Jacob Fugger von Der Lilie c. 1459-1525 Portfolio & not the other way around. Fugger had one of the 1st All Weather Portfolios. Maybe the actual 1st was the Talmudic Portfolios. Both of these portfolios would have, of course, owned the actual real underlying hard assets. RE would have been actual Land, Buildings or Houses. Gold was actual Bullion Coins, and Equity would have been akin to like Private Equity today. The Sovereigns would have been like the 1970's or before where you held the actual paper bonds.