Permanent Portfolio Forum
https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/
https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6365
IJS closed less than 1% from the channel line. We have to break above and hold above that for me to really consider this scenario. We could still reject once again at the trend line, and continue on as we have been. But momentum on the daily chart macd is currently +1.1 which is the highest it's been since that sharp rally that came off of the December lows, and it's still increasing. So we have high and increasing momentum going into this channel line test. We have also had very high volume on each of the big up days in the last week. This alone is making me start to wonder what the markets know that we don't? Seeing large capitol flows out of defensives and into small caps, and small cap value specifically, is interesting and is making me start to question the assumptions I've been operating under for the last year. I just can't see a scenario where small caps can break out, yet we hit a recession and/or sharp stock selloff in the short to medium term. Is the market starting to doubt the recession theory? Is the "smart money" starting to position themselves for a stock rally? Is the economy currently stronger than we think it is? Do we have some upside surprises waiting in the wings? Are growth names finally going to rotate out of favor with all the legal heat big name tech is taking right now? Can a value rotation lead the market for at least one more leg higher? I've got so many questions starting to stir. This last year and a half has been the trickiest and most unpredictable markets I've ever seen.
I wonder if it's just the usual "if it bleeds it leads" financial press overselling a dramatic recession story to sell ads. The FRED real-time (but lagged by a month) recession indicator says... no recession yet! Oil is kinda OK, unemployment hasn't turned up yet, maybe we do get a end of year rally. Wonder what the FED does this month!pmward wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:16 pm I just can't see a scenario where small caps can break out, yet we hit a recession and/or sharp stock selloff in the short to medium term. Is the market starting to doubt the recession theory? Is the "smart money" starting to position themselves for a stock rally? Is the economy currently stronger than we think it is? Do we have some upside surprises waiting in the wings? Are growth names finally going to rotate out of favor with all the legal heat big name tech is taking right now? I've got so many questions starting to stir.
That’s how I felt about all the gold trade talk a year or two ago. I gave up.
He has a chapter on the technical indicators he believed weren't mumbo jumbo and actually used extensively and successfully in his younger speculating years. He didn't believe all technical stuff was "mumbo jumbo". I highly encourage you to re-read "When the best laid plans..." again. 90% of the posts in this forum are about future speculation. There's simply no way to get rid of this, unless you stop going to investing forums. The gold scream room got to me last year as well, but that wasn't constructive. It was just one disgruntled person coming into the room a couple times a week basically saying "gold sucks, the PP sucks, my 70/30 is great, I have 6 million dollars and you all are poor fools" over and over again.dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:18 amThat’s how I felt about all the gold trade talk a year or two ago. I gave up.
I wouldn’t care except that it must be strange for someone new to the forum who hasn’t read any of Harry’s books to see all the fast-paced, momentumy, technical chatter. I mean, he’s got a chapter on how how technical stuff is mumbo jumbo.
FWIW, I agree with most of what Harry said on technicals, especially considering the demographic he was writing for. But no, rebalance bands are not a replacement for support and resistance. Both are used for two completely separate ends. I do agree that in the PP people are best sticking to rebalance bands. But in the VP any number of strategies are fair game. Support and resistance aka technical strategies are great. Momentum strategies are great. Buy and hold strategies are great. Quant strategies are great. I think these all are valuable. It really depends on the person and what their constitution and goals are. Personally, I know in my constitution I need a VP so I feel that I have some control. Having the VP to chase gains is a psychological tool that helps me to hold my PP and stick to the rules without modification.
I don’t recall anyone saying you couldn’t talk about it. drumminj said all that technical talk really belonged in the vp section. I was saying I felt the same way about previous talk in the gold section - someone was bragging about buying and selling all the time, which just doesn’t have anything to do with the permanent porftolio, but would be fine in the vp section.pmward wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:30 am On this forum we have ...
I think that these views are all valuable and constructive. I see no reason for anyone to poo poo the views that they don't subscribe to, especially since Harry was adamant that most people should have a VP. I also believe that due to normal human psychology most humans are better off having a VP. If all we allowed in here were discussions directly about the PP, there would be no discussion, and nobody would be here.
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Dr Evil, pinky in corner of mouthI totally agree that the average person shouldn't dabble in technical analysis, as the amount of knowledge you need to gain is very large. The quote you posted from Harry earlier is true, that most people want that one technical indicator that is magic, and it simply doesn't exist. In technical analysis you have to use multiple indicators, and at any given time you're always going to have mixed signals. It's incredibly rare to have the stars align and see a perfect setup with no contrary indicators. These perfect setups tend to happen more on the longer term charts than the short term charts, like the recent gold breakout. I was pounding the table here for gold for months before it finally broke out. These longer term setups are indeed harder to time though, it was like "ok, be patient, gold is going to breakout like wildfire, but it could happen anytime between now and 2 years from now" haha. Everyone here on this forum had given up on it, and I kept pounding the table and saying it was the most beautiful long term setup I've ever seen. But in the short to medium term, there's almost always some bull and bearish indications on any chart, and if one is going to bet one does have to use some discretion and intuition here, along with the most important piece which is a proper risk management strategy. With a proper risk management strategy you can make more losing calls than winning calls, yet on the whole still make bank. Risk management strategies in trading are very similar to those employed by professional gamblers.dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:07 am If I could criticize Harry a little bit, I wish that he had stated clearly that the average investor just doesn't have the aptitude to benefit from technical analysis. Well, maybe that was not his opinion. Perhaps you're smart enough to do it, pm. You obviously have a background in it. But, only a few analysts can be..head and shoulders above the rest?Code: Select all
Dr Evil, pinky in corner of mouth
Your views are very limited, subjective, and uneducated. You do not have the knowledge or experience on technical analysis to pass any kind of judgment. It's ok if you say "it's not for me, and I'm not interested". But it's not ok to insult something you have absolutely no real knowledge of. That being said, I don't feel like getting into yet another debate on technical analysis. I've had too many of those already on different forums over the years, and just don't have the patience to go through it again. Just like any other strategy: Those that get it, get it. Those that don't, don't. I have no interest in trying to convert those in the "don't" subset into the subset of those that "get it". However, I will point out that having a closed mind on any subject is nothing more than a self imposed limitation.boglerdude wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:35 pm Technical analysis is sperglords jerking off. Pattern seeking feels good. Fine. Its a hobby, and "I need a VP so I feel that I have some control" is a legit reason. Lets not lose perspective tho, if you want to "outsmart" the markets (composed of players like Jim Simons et al): front run or insider trade.
Edit1: Well, money does seem to slosh around between asset classes, so there might be something to be said for "market timing" by buying something beat up. Still, its gambling and shouldnt be thought of as more clever than studying real science
Another thing... people who hold the 1/4 of their assets in the S&P 500 think that it's somehow pure as untrammeled snow, and free from all of the "jerking off" of technical analysis, well, that's not true either. Stock inclusion into the S&P 500 is decided by, yes, a committee. "O the humanity!"pmward wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:56 am Your views are very limited, subjective, and uneducated. You do not have the knowledge or experience on technical analysis to pass any kind of judgment. It's ok if you say "it's not for me, and I'm not interested". But it's not ok to insult something you have absolutely no real knowledge of. That being said, I don't feel like getting into yet another debate on technical analysis. I've had too many of those already on different forums over the years, and just don't have the patience to go through it again. Just like any other strategy: Those that get it, get it. Those that don't, don't. I have no interest in trying to convert those in the "don't" subset into the subset of those that "get it". However, I will point out that having a closed mind on any subject is nothing more than a self imposed limitation.
That is very true, even behind the committee, all indices are themselves are by nature quant based. It's a very simplistic quant strategy, but a quant strategy none the less.ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:02 pmAnother thing... people who hold the 1/4 of their assets in the S&P 500 think that it's somehow pure as untrammeled snow, and free from all of the "jerking off" of technical analysis, well, that's not true either. Stock inclusion into the S&P 500 is decided by, yes, a committee. "O the humanity!"pmward wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:56 am Your views are very limited, subjective, and uneducated. You do not have the knowledge or experience on technical analysis to pass any kind of judgment. It's ok if you say "it's not for me, and I'm not interested". But it's not ok to insult something you have absolutely no real knowledge of. That being said, I don't feel like getting into yet another debate on technical analysis. I've had too many of those already on different forums over the years, and just don't have the patience to go through it again. Just like any other strategy: Those that get it, get it. Those that don't, don't. I have no interest in trying to convert those in the "don't" subset into the subset of those that "get it". However, I will point out that having a closed mind on any subject is nothing more than a self imposed limitation.
There is a lot of complexity under the covers with all of these securities, and it's OK if you don't want to think about it minute by minute, but just because you don't look, don't think that you don't silently assent to participate, because you do, and don't make fun of people who think about the complexity that you choose to ignore.