Stock scream room

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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:53 am

Re: quants - probably half the stocks I’ve mentioned in the vp section were chosen by a family member’s quant newsletter. I don’t normally partake, but I press the appropriate buttons for him per the newsletter and he seems happy.
I kind of wish PointedStick were here to say something about McGlockton/Drejka
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:07 am

If I could criticize Harry a little bit, I wish that he had stated clearly that the average investor just doesn't have the aptitude to benefit from technical analysis. Well, maybe that was not his opinion. Perhaps you're smart enough to do it, pm. You obviously have a background in it. But, only a few analysts can be..

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Dr Evil, pinky in corner of mouth
head and shoulders above the rest?
I kind of wish PointedStick were here to say something about McGlockton/Drejka
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:35 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:07 am
If I could criticize Harry a little bit, I wish that he had stated clearly that the average investor just doesn't have the aptitude to benefit from technical analysis. Well, maybe that was not his opinion. Perhaps you're smart enough to do it, pm. You obviously have a background in it. But, only a few analysts can be..

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Dr Evil, pinky in corner of mouth
head and shoulders above the rest?
I totally agree that the average person shouldn't dabble in technical analysis, as the amount of knowledge you need to gain is very large. The quote you posted from Harry earlier is true, that most people want that one technical indicator that is magic, and it simply doesn't exist. In technical analysis you have to use multiple indicators, and at any given time you're always going to have mixed signals. It's incredibly rare to have the stars align and see a perfect setup with no contrary indicators. These perfect setups tend to happen more on the longer term charts than the short term charts, like the recent gold breakout. I was pounding the table here for gold for months before it finally broke out. These longer term setups are indeed harder to time though, it was like "ok, be patient, gold is going to breakout like wildfire, but it could happen anytime between now and 2 years from now" haha. Everyone here on this forum had given up on it, and I kept pounding the table and saying it was the most beautiful long term setup I've ever seen. But in the short to medium term, there's almost always some bull and bearish indications on any chart, and if one is going to bet one does have to use some discretion and intuition here, along with the most important piece which is a proper risk management strategy. With a proper risk management strategy you can make more losing calls than winning calls, yet on the whole still make bank. Risk management strategies in trading are very similar to those employed by professional gamblers.

If the average Joe wants to leverage some sort of market timing strategy in their VP, I think that the quant momentum strategies that a few members here employ are much easier to understand and implement then a technical analysis system. Anybody could implement these in the VP and provided they stick to the rules over the long haul they will be successful. I do not trade like I used to, as it was too time consuming, as such I tend to focus more on the long term charts these days. But I still do love to think and discuss about what could happen next. When the stars do align and I see those perfect charts that signal a major macro shift, like gold, I want to make sure my VP is on the right side of the trade.

Recently, I had traded some of my VP small caps for REIT's. When I made that shift small caps were technically looking dead as a doornail. No sooner did I make that shift than small caps started screaming bullish signals left and right. Thankfully I do have a risk management plan in place in case small caps do break out to hedge my bet. It's unfortunate though, and deserves some "scream room" love, haha. So far small cap resistance is holding though, we poked a bit above the channel line this morning only to sell back down below. I'm definitely watching small caps very intently right now. One thing I've said here many times is that I look to small caps as the canary in the coal mine for stocks. If small caps do indeed break out and hold, stocks are heading to new all time highs in a fresh stock bull rally over the coming months. It makes no sense to me right not from a fundamental perspective, but the tape doesn't lie, and I have to go with what the tape is telling me.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:35 pm

Technical analysis is sperglords jerking off. Pattern seeking feels good. Fine. Its a hobby, and "I need a VP so I feel that I have some control" is a legit reason. Lets not lose perspective tho, if you want to "outsmart" the markets (composed of players like Jim Simons et al): front run or insider trade.

Edit1: Well, money does seem to slosh around between asset classes, so there might be something to be said for "market timing" by buying something beat up. Still, its gambling and shouldnt be thought of as more clever than studying real science

Edit2: A current debate https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comm ... le_for_an/
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:56 am

boglerdude wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:35 pm
Technical analysis is sperglords jerking off. Pattern seeking feels good. Fine. Its a hobby, and "I need a VP so I feel that I have some control" is a legit reason. Lets not lose perspective tho, if you want to "outsmart" the markets (composed of players like Jim Simons et al): front run or insider trade.

Edit1: Well, money does seem to slosh around between asset classes, so there might be something to be said for "market timing" by buying something beat up. Still, its gambling and shouldnt be thought of as more clever than studying real science
Your views are very limited, subjective, and uneducated. You do not have the knowledge or experience on technical analysis to pass any kind of judgment. It's ok if you say "it's not for me, and I'm not interested". But it's not ok to insult something you have absolutely no real knowledge of. That being said, I don't feel like getting into yet another debate on technical analysis. I've had too many of those already on different forums over the years, and just don't have the patience to go through it again. Just like any other strategy: Those that get it, get it. Those that don't, don't. I have no interest in trying to convert those in the "don't" subset into the subset of those that "get it". However, I will point out that having a closed mind on any subject is nothing more than a self imposed limitation.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:02 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:56 am
Your views are very limited, subjective, and uneducated. You do not have the knowledge or experience on technical analysis to pass any kind of judgment. It's ok if you say "it's not for me, and I'm not interested". But it's not ok to insult something you have absolutely no real knowledge of. That being said, I don't feel like getting into yet another debate on technical analysis. I've had too many of those already on different forums over the years, and just don't have the patience to go through it again. Just like any other strategy: Those that get it, get it. Those that don't, don't. I have no interest in trying to convert those in the "don't" subset into the subset of those that "get it". However, I will point out that having a closed mind on any subject is nothing more than a self imposed limitation.
Another thing... people who hold the 1/4 of their assets in the S&P 500 think that it's somehow pure as untrammeled snow, and free from all of the "jerking off" of technical analysis, well, that's not true either. Stock inclusion into the S&P 500 is decided by, yes, a committee. "O the humanity!"

There is a lot of complexity under the covers with all of these securities, and it's OK if you don't want to think about it minute by minute, but just because you don't look, don't think that you don't silently assent to participate, because you do, and don't make fun of people who think about the complexity that you choose to ignore.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:02 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:02 pm
pmward wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:56 am
Your views are very limited, subjective, and uneducated. You do not have the knowledge or experience on technical analysis to pass any kind of judgment. It's ok if you say "it's not for me, and I'm not interested". But it's not ok to insult something you have absolutely no real knowledge of. That being said, I don't feel like getting into yet another debate on technical analysis. I've had too many of those already on different forums over the years, and just don't have the patience to go through it again. Just like any other strategy: Those that get it, get it. Those that don't, don't. I have no interest in trying to convert those in the "don't" subset into the subset of those that "get it". However, I will point out that having a closed mind on any subject is nothing more than a self imposed limitation.
Another thing... people who hold the 1/4 of their assets in the S&P 500 think that it's somehow pure as untrammeled snow, and free from all of the "jerking off" of technical analysis, well, that's not true either. Stock inclusion into the S&P 500 is decided by, yes, a committee. "O the humanity!"

There is a lot of complexity under the covers with all of these securities, and it's OK if you don't want to think about it minute by minute, but just because you don't look, don't think that you don't silently assent to participate, because you do, and don't make fun of people who think about the complexity that you choose to ignore.
That is very true, even behind the committee, all indices are themselves are by nature quant based. It's a very simplistic quant strategy, but a quant strategy none the less.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:21 pm

That's a bit misleading, though, even if it's technically true. (I don't know whether it is or not).
Broad index funds don't have a lot of turnover. There isn't a lot of trading going on each year.
What about VTSAX? No trading.
I kind of wish PointedStick were here to say something about McGlockton/Drejka
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:47 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:21 pm
That's a bit misleading, though, even if it's technically true. (I don't know whether it is or not).
Broad index funds don't have a lot of turnover. There isn't a lot of trading going on each year.
What about VTSAX? No trading.
There is still trading in both every year... Bond funds always have to cycle their bonds, and the exact bonds and proportions they buy and sell are all driven from quant algorithms. VTSAX also has to buy and sell stock as people buy and sell shares, and the proportions they buy and sell in are driven from quant algorithms. VTSAX doesn't literally buy every stock in the market... there are plenty they leave out, and the stocks chosen and left out are done using quantitative algorithms. The ordering of stocks in VTSAX (market cap weight) is a quant algorithm. Any segmented index fund like a large cap, small cap, mid cap, value, growth, etc do all the above as well as select the securities using quant algorithms. You cannot have an index without quantitative analysis. Indexing IS quantitative. There is no separating the two.

Moreover, how did you choose the PP? Quantitative analysis. How did you choose buy and hold strategy? More quantitative analysis. If data showed that both were guaranteed to lose money, would you invest in those styles? No. You came to the decision in how you invest your money because of quantitative analysis. How do you perform your rebalancing rules? Using a quantitative strategy. How do you decide what to buy when you add money to your account? Another quantitative strategy. Therefore, your investing style is much more of a quant strategy than you realize.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:00 pm

You can call any non-whim decision on earth quant, but it’s still misleading.
I kind of wish PointedStick were here to say something about McGlockton/Drejka
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:12 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:00 pm
You can call any non-whim decision on earth quant, but it’s still misleading.
No it is not misleading. What is misleading is trying to define the words "quantitative analysis" in a short sighted and overly tight manner to only mean one very specific form of quantitative analysis, and to choose to ignore all others.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:19 pm

Well known stock bug Jim Cramer is saying the market is overbought and people should put a hold on any significant stock purchases. He is also suggesting that this is a good time to take some profits. I don't trade stocks but I will note that this is not the sort of thing one typically hears from Cramer, who fairly or not, has a bit of a reputation as a perma bull. He is basing this call on the S&P's short term oscillator which Cramer says he trusts.

https://youtu.be/9yLTSeJr-EA
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