Gyroscopic Investing

Yes. Good to see. PP at high for year for me, up 7.93% No complaints, does its thing on autopilot.

pmward wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:16 am DXY and gold rallying hard today. Interesting...

Too bad Budd selfdestructed out of here. Would be interesting to see his reaction

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:30 am

pmward wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:16 am DXY and gold rallying hard today. Interesting...

Too bad Budd selfdestructed out of here. Would be interesting to see his reaction

Budd was the epitome of capitulation. He was selling out of "bad" long bonds and gold just before they started to pick up steam. We have yet to see how this turns out, but if stocks continue to sell and bonds and gold continue to go up then it would definitely be a good case study in what happens when you start selling the losers low to buy the winners high.

pmward wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:21 am

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:30 am

pmward wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:16 am DXY and gold rallying hard today. Interesting...

Too bad Budd selfdestructed out of here. Would be interesting to see his reaction

Budd was the epitome of capitulation.
...

He complained a lot, but Budd actually held on for something like ten years. We had a user, catacombs, who bought gold and sold it at a loss. I don't think he'd even held it for a year. One year at most.

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:34 pm We had a user, catacombs, who bought gold and sold it at a loss. I don't think he'd even held it for a year. One year at most.

Well remembered dualstow, there were indeed some intense moments (and members ) on this forum. The level of drama for such a conservative portfolio was quite eye opening.

gizmo_rat wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:21 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:34 pm We had a user, catacombs, who bought gold and sold it at a loss. I don't think he'd even held it for a year. One year at most.

Well remembered dualstow, there were indeed some intense moments (and members ) on this forum. The level of drama for such a conservative portfolio was quite eye opening.

Lots of drama. Actually, catacombs was one I felt bad for. He wasn't brusque in any way. He just said, in so many words, I can't take this, guys. (Falling gold prices). People tried to tell him to keep his eye on the whole package, but he bailed, and gold went back up. In the long run, though I guess it isn't much higher than when he bailed. U.S. Treasuries have certainly done well, but as an Israeli he probably had a subsitution.

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:46 pm

gizmo_rat wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:21 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:34 pm We had a user, catacombs, who bought gold and sold it at a loss. I don't think he'd even held it for a year. One year at most.

Well remembered dualstow, there were indeed some intense moments (and members ) on this forum. The level of drama for such a conservative portfolio was quite eye opening.

Lots of drama. Actually, catacombs was one I felt bad for. He wasn't brusque in any way. He just said, in so many words, I can't take this, guys. (Falling gold prices). People tried to tell him to keep his eye on the whole package, but he bailed, and gold went back up. In the long run, though I guess it isn't much higher than when he bailed. U.S. Treasuries have certainly done well, but as an Israeli he probably had a subsitution.

Just me perhaps, I get bailing on a portfolio if you stick with it for a while and it just doesn't perform like you thought it would. What I don't get is the fixation on performance at the asset level. I'm sure I check performance too much, but I rarely pay any attention to the puzzle pieces.

Kbg wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:58 pm Just me perhaps, I get bailing on a portfolio if you stick with it for a while and it just doesn't perform like you thought it would. What I don't get is the fixation on performance at the asset level. I'm sure I check performance too much, but I rarely pay any attention to the puzzle pieces.

I think that gold is the physiological Achilles heel of the PP. Looking back at catacombs posts I do remember not feeling that clever in my asset choice at that time.

It's quite hard to view gold as a neutral puzzle piece when it carries so much emotional baggage and opinion that everyone and his dog wants to tell you about. So you end up with this nasty miss-match between your expectations at the portfolio level and the performance of that "crazy asset that all the sane commentators hate and only the loons love and why did I talk myself in to this" .

Easy to get yourself into a spiral of self doubt, recrimination and blame as we've seen played out many times. I tend to think if you've got sufficient rationally to ignore the noise from gold then it's not that much of a leap to tune out the volatility from a stock heavy portfolio.

I think it was Moda who said a few years ago, "if there was a 4% ibond" ...

Gold is like US$1345/oz now. Thanks, oil tankers?

Gold is officially breaking out this morning. Currently $1359. I'm not going to get too excited until we break above $1375 and/or get a successful pullback retest and bounce back up off of $1350 (preferably both). But it definitely does have some serious strength right now. I think it's prospects of holding this breakout are all entirely up to the Fed next week. They are either going to strengthen the rally or cause it to prairie dog back down.

I assume you’re not too excited...

pmward wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:45 am Gold
“
“
“
... or cause it to prairie dog back down.

Obligatory prairie dog
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHjFxJVeCQs

Haha. Well it is not surprising that the sellers came out today. Shorting gold at $1350 has been the easiest money in the world for damn near a decade now. But we still closed the day even, so they sellers couldn't actually drop the price. If the buyers keep pounding on the ceiling and don't give up, they will break through. The sellers showed a bit of weakness today, they couldn't get the job done and bring it down. I really think a lot rides on the Fed next week, not just in gold but in all markets. With the market expecting a 50bp drop in the next month, I mean just Powell saying the wrong adjunctive once could cause massive commotion. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a volatile week all around. Buckle up those seatbelts!

Or just don’t look for 12 months.

(Says the guy who regularly posts prices, I admit. )

Holy crap! Is this a breakout?

I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.

My gold stake has grown all by itself from 10% to 11%. I am well pleased. I'm going let it run.

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:26 pm I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.

$1250 or $1350? $1250 would be a pretty large pullback at this point

I was wondering the same thing.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:52 am

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:26 pm I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.

$1250 or $1350? $1250 would be a pretty large pullback at this point

Yes this is a legit breakout from an 8 year base. If we drop much below $1350 then it's a failed breakout and is likely to drop fast. So we don't want to see below $1350 ever. However, it would not be a surprise at all if we pulled back and retested that $1350 in the coming weeks. I think that would be healthy to cement in the support level with a successful retest. It's also possible we could rocket up if we get a short squeeze and never retest. I think about $1400 is when the short squeeze is likely to really pick up steam.

My only concern is that bonds (TLT) and the S&P are both testing breakouts today as well (though it looks like the S&P is rejecting at the moment). Though both of them are a bit more extended and not coming out of as nice of a base as gold, it is very strange to see all 3 testing breakouts on the same day. I suspect 1 or 2 will be false breakouts and prairie dog it. Which will it be? Gold certainly seems to be the most decisive breakout today, so that's a good sign for gold. Though, who knows with this administration, every day there is potential for surprise, haha.

Gold has gone up a bit since I last checked, solid. But I'm finding it more awesome that 'prairie dogging' is a technical analysis term, since I'm more familiar with it as poop humor.

pmward wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:32 am it is very strange to see all 3 testing breakouts on the same day

+1
I don't like 3 assets going up on the same day even when it's not a breakout. Makes me nervous.

kriegs: ugh. Reabsorption, I bet.

Almost 6.5 years since gold has been at this level. March 2014. Wow. Hope it holds. About freaking time.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:01 pm Almost 6.5 years since gold has been at this level. March 2014. Wow. Hope it holds. About freaking time.

Original ETF gold I bought (IAU) just went from red to green for the first time in a long time.

Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)

Assuming the huge jump today was because of the threat of war with Iran. Despite the gains, I would rather that didn't happen.

I think it's mostly about the Fed to be honest. I think that's why everything is rallying, expectations of Fed easing. However, I'm not so sure Fed easing is really a good thing for stocks long term, it's just buying a little bit of time is all.