The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:39 am

And that lasted about 3 hours...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:03 am

Gold is up over 4% in the last 5 trading sessions. I wouldn't complain too much that we are only up about ten bp today.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:40 am

I'm going to channel budd here -- were were up $19 earlier, and it totally turned around and lost it all quickly.

I guess is it concurrent with the dollar doing the exact opposite, but still feels ominous, yet again.
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:54 am

Not a time to buy
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:56 am

How is contemplating a rate cut even possible in this screwed up world?

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:01 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:40 am
I'm going to channel budd here -- were were up $19 earlier, and it totally turned around and lost it all quickly.

I guess is it concurrent with the dollar doing the exact opposite, but still feels ominous, yet again.
Have patience, it's a couple hours of one day. We are still positive on the day, and it's shot up like a rocket over the last 5 sessions. A day of consolidation and a bit of selling is to be expected, and probably even healthy. It's not going to go up in a straight line, and if that's your expectation then you will always be disappointed. I personally see nothing to complain about with a 4%+ gain in one week and bullish signals being thrown left and right. Gold is still above the light resistance/support level it broke above yesterday. It's quite common to retest support before moving higher after breaking above a resistance level. It's above it's 50 day, 200 day, 20 day, and 8 day moving averages. It has set a series of two higher lows and higher highs on both the daily and weekly chart. Momentum is positive and increasing. Macd just had a bullish cross today. 50 day moving average is above the 200 day moving average. 8 day moving average is above the 20 day moving average (and bullishly spreading). There is not a single bearish signal right now aside from a morning reversal (which is probably due more to the positive stock reversal leading to risk on from some more dovish Fed comments that came out than anything). Have patience. A couple hours is not enough data to pass judgements on.
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Ugly_Bird
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:24 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:56 am
How is contemplating a rate cut even possible in this screwed up world?
It is simple. Someone is lying. But with PP we should not care. Maybe :-)
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:16 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:01 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:40 am
I'm going to channel budd here -- were were up $19 earlier, and it totally turned around and lost it all quickly.

I guess is it concurrent with the dollar doing the exact opposite, but still feels ominous, yet again.
Have patience, it's a couple hours of one day. We are still positive on the day, and it's shot up like a rocket over the last 5 sessions. A day of consolidation and a bit of selling is to be expected, and probably even healthy. It's not going to go up in a straight line, and if that's your expectation then you will always be disappointed. I personally see nothing to complain about with a 4%+ gain in one week and bullish signals being thrown left and right. Gold is still above the light resistance/support level it broke above yesterday. It's quite common to retest support before moving higher after breaking above a resistance level. It's above it's 50 day, 200 day, 20 day, and 8 day moving averages. It has set a series of two higher lows and higher highs on both the daily and weekly chart. Momentum is positive and increasing. Macd just had a bullish cross today. 50 day moving average is above the 200 day moving average. 8 day moving average is above the 20 day moving average (and bullishly spreading). There is not a single bearish signal right now aside from a morning reversal (which is probably due more to the positive stock reversal leading to risk on from some more dovish Fed comments that came out than anything). Have patience. A couple hours is not enough data to pass judgements on.
I know. Except... it's not a couple hours. It's been years. My average price in my gold holdings is $1349. Started buying in 2008. Beating my chest in 2011. Been 8 years of false hope since. Gold's resistance happens to match my average.

In the PP for 5 years, I have only been able to very minimally sell down gold in early 2019 to buy other assets for rebalancing.

But I care less and less.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:58 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:16 pm

I know. Except... it's not a couple hours. It's been years. My average price in my gold holdings is $1349. Started buying in 2008. Beating my chest in 2011. Been 8 years of false hope since. Gold's resistance happens to match my average.

In the PP for 5 years, I have only been able to very minimally sell down gold in early 2019 to buy other assets for rebalancing.

But I care less and less.
Assets go on multi year, sometimes multi decade, cyclical trends. You bought at the tail end of the last cyclical uptrend in gold. That sucks, and I feel for you. But, you are already lumped in and you're doing the right thing by being patient and waiting to rebalance. Gold will break out eventually. When it does, it will likely go on one of the multi year bull market uptrends that it's known for. When that time comes you'll be able to rebalance and take profits. On the long term trend, it's been consolidating in a bullish wedge formation since 2013 and that wedge does not come to a point until around the 2022-2023 time frame. So, in all reality, it could continue to keep consolidating for quite a few years. But eventually it will break, and the longer the consolidation the stronger the break. So, both the short term, and the long term look bullish. I personally am about as bullish gold as I can get. I think that in 2029 when we look back we will see that gold was the asset of the decade vs stocks and bonds (I'm curious to see what crypto does as well). We may not break out this time, the sellers may win again. We will have to see. I think a lot is resting on both stocks and the Fed. If stocks sell and the Fed lowers rates (bringing the dollar down) then that should be enough. Hell, even just the Fed cutting the predicted 50bp and stopping QT might even be enough in itself to do it regardless of what the stock market does.

Either way, all signs are positive in the gold market right now. So this should not be a day to be upset.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:16 am

DXY and gold rallying hard today. Interesting...
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:25 am

Yes. Good to see. PP at high for year for me, up 7.93% No complaints, does its thing on autopilot.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:30 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:16 am
DXY and gold rallying hard today. Interesting...
Too bad Budd selfdestructed out of here. Would be interesting to see his reaction :)
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