Permanent Portfolio Forum
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https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12433
Budd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:02 pm PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.
I setup a taxable PP in 2010.dockinGA wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:18 pmBudd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:02 pm PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:37 pmI setup a taxable PP in 2010.dockinGA wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:18 pmBudd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:02 pm PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.
By "during a period" do you mean the past 30 days or so? That isn't much... In 2008 it took some time (months, I think) for LTTs to wake up and pick up the slack.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:51 pm During a darker blue period for equities.
Now, during a period where stocks are on the decline, the other PP components are as well.
There is no gyroscope effect.
Rising rates are impacting other portfolios too but losses are magnified for the PP with the levered holdings.
"No way out. No way out." (In my Gene Wilder voice).buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:02 pm PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.
According to Portfolio Visualizer, over that time frame your real rate of return is 5.2%. I'd say that's on the higher end of what's to be expected of this portfolio, which means a slight pullback wouldn't be abnormal. Think about the long run, not day to day gyrations.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:37 pmI setup a taxable PP in 2010.dockinGA wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:18 pmBudd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:02 pm PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.
Took literally that one or more assets would take the reigns during each of the 4 economic climates to drive returns.
What I am witnessing is one or more assets pulling the portfolio down while stocks are on the decline as well.
I realize over long periods of time that gold and LTT’s should outperform cash but the downside far exceeds any losses when holding cash as a substitute for these assets.
Thanks for that I watched the video. Great info. Big fan of his. I wish there was a tool to independently verify his assertion that gold correlated more strongly negative over time.Hal wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:03 amYou may find BelangP's video on rebalancing interesting.ppnewbie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:58 pm
Here is an interesting take on rebalancing, especially in a taxable account.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAjIiaN6zHM
Basically rebalance 50% towards your ideal allocation instead of resetting to your portfolio asset allocation model. So if you have an allocation of 40 percent stocks and your band is 10 percent. Once you get to 50 percent stocks you rebalance down to 45 percent stocks vs rebalancing back to 40 percent.
I need to read the paper referenced:
https://www.financialplanningassociatio ... nagers.pdf
Bogleheads thread on it:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10670
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtykd_RFKDI
Can't help you on the gold/shares correlation, however this link proves his assertion that shares/bonds becomes more correlated over time.
YTDbuddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:00 am Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.
You're a broken record. Why continue to post here, unless your goal in life is to drive off the few folks who still frequent these forums thanks to this kind of pointless trolling? You bash the PP without ever proposing alternatives, and you are wrong on the facts.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:00 am Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.
Just stating the facts as they unfold.Kevin K. wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:08 amYou're a broken record. Why continue to post here, unless your goal in life is to drive off the few folks who still frequent these forums thanks to this kind of pointless trolling? You bash the PP without ever proposing alternatives, and you are wrong on the facts.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:00 am Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.
Here are the returns for the PP, GB and a classic Bogleheads 60:40 over the past two decades, which include the dot.com crash, the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and the COVID sell-off two years ago. The respective CAGR's and drawdowns speak for themselves.
If you've got some brilliant alternative allocations to share, by all means. Otherwise, kindly do us all a favor and STFU.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion7_2=20
These facts are meaningless.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:16 amKevin K. wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:08 amYou're a broken record. Why continue to post here, unless your goal in life is to drive off the few folks who still frequent these forums thanks to this kind of pointless trolling? You bash the PP without ever proposing alternatives, and you are wrong on the facts.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:00 am Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.
Here are the returns for the PP, GB and a classic Bogleheads 60:40 over the past two decades, which include the dot.com crash, the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and the COVID sell-off two years ago. The respective CAGR's and drawdowns speak for themselves.
If you've got some brilliant alternative allocations to share, by all means. Otherwise, kindly do us all a favor and STFU.
Just stating the facts as they unfold.
deja vubuddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:16 am I wont post again for a while and I wish you all the best.
Buddbuddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:00 am Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.
Are the daily results published somewhere?
It's interesting. After Bud asked for my numbers for the day. I have been checking my portfolio everyday AND...It's super stressful. (I'm down another half percent! - I'm getting stressed). Jim Rogers had an interesting take on it when he invest in frontier markets. A broker in one of these countries asked him how frequently he wanted to receive reports. He said (paraphrase). If you send me reports, I will fire you because then I will be tempted to to buy or sell.GT wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:41 amBuddbuddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:00 am Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.
Where did you get your PP info that has the portfolio performance being judged on daily results?
I have the book Fail- Safe Investing and Harry suggests a yearly portfolio review with rebalancing based on 15 to 35 percentage bands.
Harry also suggests taking a peek if there is a large change in investment prices and then using the same 15 to 35 percentage bands.
I don't know of any investment portfolio judged on daily results.
I wonder how comfortable people are holding large amounts of physical gold. I am going start a thread on this in the Gold section. Right now most of my gold allocation is in IAU which makes me uncomfortable long term. The thread is below:Hal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:25 amCan't help you on the gold/shares correlation, however this link proves his assertion that shares/bonds becomes more correlated over time.
https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/search?q=bonds
Enjoy
It should not be. Yes, loosing money sucks but we are not supposed to be gaining all the time. There were and will be periods which look like the end of the world. And they are actually good because may help approach the rebalance limits.ppnewbie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:35 pmIt's interesting. After Bud asked for my numbers for the day. I have been checking my portfolio everyday AND...It's super stressful.GT wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:41 amBuddbuddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:00 am Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.
Where did you get your PP info that has the portfolio performance being judged on daily results?
I have the book Fail- Safe Investing and Harry suggests a yearly portfolio review with rebalancing based on 15 to 35 percentage bands.
Harry also suggests taking a peek if there is a large change in investment prices and then using the same 15 to 35 percentage bands.
I don't know of any investment portfolio judged on daily results.
So that’s interesting. There was a recent thread where folks were listing their 2021 returns and I saw a 4 percent number- which concerned me because the HBPP should consistently provide 4 percent REAL returns not nominal.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:37 pmI setup a taxable PP in 2010.dockinGA wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:18 pmBudd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:02 pm PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.
Took literally that one or more assets would take the reigns during each of the 4 economic climates to drive returns.
What I am witnessing is one or more assets pulling the portfolio down while stocks are on the decline as well.
I realize over long periods of time that gold and LTT’s should outperform cash but the downside far exceeds any losses when holding cash as a substitute for these assets.
