Yay PP!

[dockinGA]

PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.

Budd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?

[buddtholomew]

PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.

Budd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?

I setup a taxable PP in 2010.
Took literally that one or more assets would take the reigns during each of the 4 economic climates to drive returns.
What I am witnessing is one or more assets pulling the portfolio down while stocks are on the decline as well.
I realize over long periods of time that gold and LTT’s should outperform cash but the downside far exceeds any losses when holding cash as a substitute for these assets.

[Ugly_Bird]

PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.

Budd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?

I setup a taxable PP in 2010.

Capture_______.JPG (9.93 KiB) Viewed 8051 times

[buddtholomew]

During a darker blue period for equities.
Now, during a period where stocks are on the decline, the other PP components are as well.
There is no gyroscope effect.
Rising rates are impacting other portfolios too but losses are magnified for the PP with the levered holdings.

[Xan]

During a darker blue period for equities.
Now, during a period where stocks are on the decline, the other PP components are as well.
There is no gyroscope effect.
Rising rates are impacting other portfolios too but losses are magnified for the PP with the levered holdings.

By "during a period" do you mean the past 30 days or so? That isn't much... In 2008 it took some time (months, I think) for LTTs to wake up and pick up the slack.

[Don]

PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.

"No way out. No way out." (In my Gene Wilder voice).

[dockinGA]

PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.

Budd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?

I setup a taxable PP in 2010.
Took literally that one or more assets would take the reigns during each of the 4 economic climates to drive returns.
What I am witnessing is one or more assets pulling the portfolio down while stocks are on the decline as well.
I realize over long periods of time that gold and LTT’s should outperform cash but the downside far exceeds any losses when holding cash as a substitute for these assets.

According to Portfolio Visualizer, over that time frame your real rate of return is 5.2%. I'd say that's on the higher end of what's to be expected of this portfolio, which means a slight pullback wouldn't be abnormal. Think about the long run, not day to day gyrations.

[ppnewbie]

On the dark side you chose an extremely conservative portfolio at the beginning of a fantastic stock market bubble inflation. On the bright side, the stock market is going to drop to meet the PP in a few months. If it drops below the PP it may be a good time to jump on the Federal Reserve crazy train and just buy VTI.

[ppnewbie]

Here is an interesting take on rebalancing, especially in a taxable account.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAjIiaN6zHM

Basically rebalance 50% towards your ideal allocation instead of resetting to your portfolio asset allocation model. So if you have an allocation of 40 percent stocks and your band is 10 percent. Once you get to 50 percent stocks you rebalance down to 45 percent stocks vs rebalancing back to 40 percent.

I need to read the paper referenced:
https://www.financialplanningassociatio ... nagers.pdf

Bogleheads thread on it:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10670

You may find BelangP's video on rebalancing interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtykd_RFKDI

Thanks for that I watched the video. Great info. Big fan of his. I wish there was a tool to independently verify his assertion that gold correlated more strongly negative over time.

[Hal]

Thanks for that I watched the video. Great info. Big fan of his. I wish there was a tool to independently verify his assertion that gold correlated more strongly negative over time.

Can't help you on the gold/shares correlation, however this link proves his assertion that shares/bonds becomes more correlated over time.
https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/search?q=bonds
Enjoy

[buddtholomew]

Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.

[Ugly_Bird]

Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.

YTD
PP is about -3.8%
SP500 -8.7%

[Kevin K.]

Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.

You're a broken record. Why continue to post here, unless your goal in life is to drive off the few folks who still frequent these forums thanks to this kind of pointless trolling? You bash the PP without ever proposing alternatives, and you are wrong on the facts.

Here are the returns for the PP, GB and a classic Bogleheads 60:40 over the past two decades, which include the dot.com crash, the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and the COVID sell-off two years ago. The respective CAGR's and drawdowns speak for themselves.

If you've got some brilliant alternative allocations to share, by all means. Otherwise, kindly do us all a favor and STFU.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion7_2=20

[buddtholomew]

Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.

You're a broken record. Why continue to post here, unless your goal in life is to drive off the few folks who still frequent these forums thanks to this kind of pointless trolling? You bash the PP without ever proposing alternatives, and you are wrong on the facts.

Here are the returns for the PP, GB and a classic Bogleheads 60:40 over the past two decades, which include the dot.com crash, the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and the COVID sell-off two years ago. The respective CAGR's and drawdowns speak for themselves.

If you've got some brilliant alternative allocations to share, by all means. Otherwise, kindly do us all a favor and STFU.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion7_2=20

Just stating the facts as they unfold.
I wont post again for a while and I wish you all the best.

[Ugly_Bird]

Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.

You're a broken record. Why continue to post here, unless your goal in life is to drive off the few folks who still frequent these forums thanks to this kind of pointless trolling? You bash the PP without ever proposing alternatives, and you are wrong on the facts.

Here are the returns for the PP, GB and a classic Bogleheads 60:40 over the past two decades, which include the dot.com crash, the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and the COVID sell-off two years ago. The respective CAGR's and drawdowns speak for themselves.

If you've got some brilliant alternative allocations to share, by all means. Otherwise, kindly do us all a favor and STFU.

Just stating the facts as they unfold.

These facts are meaningless.

I wont post again for a while and I wish you all the best.

deja vu

[flyingpylon]

I setup a taxable PP in 2010.

[GT]

Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.

Budd

Where did you get your PP info that has the portfolio performance being judged on daily results?

I have the book Fail- Safe Investing and Harry suggests a yearly portfolio review with rebalancing based on 15 to 35 percentage bands.

Harry also suggests taking a peek if there is a large change in investment prices and then using the same 15 to 35 percentage bands.

I don't know of any investment portfolio judged on daily results.

[dualstow]

I don't know of any investment portfolio judged on daily results.

the Mathjak Portfolio

[GT]

I don't know of any investment portfolio judged on daily results.

the Mathjak Portfolio

Are the daily results published somewhere?

Never mind, I think I would end up with a panic attack if I had to make a decision based on daily results.

[ppnewbie]

Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.

Budd

Where did you get your PP info that has the portfolio performance being judged on daily results?

I have the book Fail- Safe Investing and Harry suggests a yearly portfolio review with rebalancing based on 15 to 35 percentage bands.

Harry also suggests taking a peek if there is a large change in investment prices and then using the same 15 to 35 percentage bands.

I don't know of any investment portfolio judged on daily results.

It's interesting. After Bud asked for my numbers for the day. I have been checking my portfolio everyday AND...It's super stressful. (I'm down another half percent! - I'm getting stressed). Jim Rogers had an interesting take on it when he invest in frontier markets. A broker in one of these countries asked him how frequently he wanted to receive reports. He said (paraphrase). If you send me reports, I will fire you because then I will be tempted to to buy or sell.

[ppnewbie]

Thanks for that I watched the video. Great info. Big fan of his. I wish there was a tool to independently verify his assertion that gold correlated more strongly negative over time.

Can't help you on the gold/shares correlation, however this link proves his assertion that shares/bonds becomes more correlated over time.
https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/search?q=bonds
Enjoy

I wonder how comfortable people are holding large amounts of physical gold. I am going start a thread on this in the Gold section. Right now most of my gold allocation is in IAU which makes me uncomfortable long term. The thread is below:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=12494

[Ugly_Bird]

Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.

Budd

Where did you get your PP info that has the portfolio performance being judged on daily results?

I have the book Fail- Safe Investing and Harry suggests a yearly portfolio review with rebalancing based on 15 to 35 percentage bands.

Harry also suggests taking a peek if there is a large change in investment prices and then using the same 15 to 35 percentage bands.

I don't know of any investment portfolio judged on daily results.

It's interesting. After Bud asked for my numbers for the day. I have been checking my portfolio everyday AND...It's super stressful.

It should not be. Yes, loosing money sucks but we are not supposed to be gaining all the time. There were and will be periods which look like the end of the world. And they are actually good because may help approach the rebalance limits.
Despite PP is negative YTD it is less negative that SP500 ;-)
YTD
PP is about -3.8%
SP500 -8.7%
I'm not stressed at all.

[dualstow]

I don't know of any investment portfolio judged on daily results.

the Mathjak Portfolio

Are the daily results published somewhere?

Never mind, I think I would end up with a panic attack if I had to make a decision based on daily results.

Published? Hell no

[ppnewbie]

PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.

Budd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time?

I setup a taxable PP in 2010.
Took literally that one or more assets would take the reigns during each of the 4 economic climates to drive returns.
What I am witnessing is one or more assets pulling the portfolio down while stocks are on the decline as well.
I realize over long periods of time that gold and LTT’s should outperform cash but the downside far exceeds any losses when holding cash as a substitute for these assets.

So that’s interesting. There was a recent thread where folks were listing their 2021 returns and I saw a 4 percent number- which concerned me because the HBPP should consistently provide 4 percent REAL returns not nominal.

[buddtholomew]

Last post for ppnewbie.

Run far away ppnewbie, the PP is a lifetime of disappointment.

I was in Analytics/BI for 15 years at a Fortune 300 company so I understand your mental makeup. The agnostic nature of the portfolio sounds great on the surface but you lose to equities on the upside and there is no guarantee that when stocks fall, the other assets take the reigns.

Soon the board will start saying that they are so happy with their 25% in cash while the rest of the portfolio is in the toilet.

Have stocks, some gold and ITT’s and spend more time on the Bogleheads forum.