Buying GTU now?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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fishdrzig
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Buying GTU now?

Post by fishdrzig » Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:11 am

Discount premium now is -2.28 according to Morningstar - - does this indicate a good time to buy?
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by Pointedstick » Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:26 am

It's been as low as -5% recently. That's when I bought. I plan to swap mine out for a different ETF once the discount becomes a 5% premium.
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:28 am

I played this game a few times, swapping between GTU and GLD or PHYS and GLD playing the premium differential but then on the last attempt before moving to the PP, GTU has been sitting at -4 to -5% for so long, it just seemed to not be worth it.

I suppose it could be a good strategy to make a % here and there, but since going to the PP my gold holdings are only physical and the whole point was for me not to deal with day to day monitoring of things like this.
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by dragoncar » Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:40 am

GTU premium/discount is dropping like a stone.  Hopefully you didn't just buy GTU!  Anyways, what's going on here?  Can we use the GTU premium to predict Gold price movements? 
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buddtholomew
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:46 pm

dragoncar wrote: GTU premium/discount is dropping like a stone.  Hopefully you didn't just buy GTU!  Anyways, what's going on here?  Can we use the GTU premium to predict Gold price movements?
Dropping like a stone? 1 year AVG discount/premium as of 6-31-2014 is -4.91%

According to their site, current discount as of 7-23-2014 is -5.2%, on the NYSE it is -5.36% (Price/NAV-1)

Do you see something more alarming elsewhere?
Last edited by buddtholomew on Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dragoncar
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by dragoncar » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:34 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
dragoncar wrote: GTU premium/discount is dropping like a stone.  Hopefully you didn't just buy GTU!  Anyways, what's going on here?  Can we use the GTU premium to predict Gold price movements?
Dropping like a stone? 1 year AVG discount/premium as of 6-31-2014 is -4.91%

According to their site, current discount as of 7-23-2014 is -5.2%, on the NYSE it is -5.36% (Price/NAV-1)

Do you see something more alarming elsewhere?
Well it was -1.11% a month ago and -2.28% a few days ago.  So pretty big movements down.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:13 pm

dragoncar wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:
dragoncar wrote: GTU premium/discount is dropping like a stone.  Hopefully you didn't just buy GTU!  Anyways, what's going on here?  Can we use the GTU premium to predict Gold price movements?
Dropping like a stone? 1 year AVG discount/premium as of 6-31-2014 is -4.91%

According to their site, current discount as of 7-23-2014 is -5.2%, on the NYSE it is -5.36% (Price/NAV-1)

Do you see something more alarming elsewhere?
Well it was -1.11% a month ago and -2.28% a few days ago.  So pretty big movements down.
I see. Decided against GTU to avoid filing an additional tax form.
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by pugchief » Thu Jul 24, 2014 1:28 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
dragoncar wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: Dropping like a stone? 1 year AVG discount/premium as of 6-31-2014 is -4.91%

According to their site, current discount as of 7-23-2014 is -5.2%, on the NYSE it is -5.36% (Price/NAV-1)

Do you see something more alarming elsewhere?
Well it was -1.11% a month ago and -2.28% a few days ago.  So pretty big movements down.
I see. Decided against GTU to avoid filing an additional tax form.
IMHO, if you are using ETFs to hold your gold, IRA/401k is a better place, so as to avoid accounting headaches of extra forms, fractional shares for expenses, and the 28% collectibles tax. YMMV.
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by dragoncar » Thu Jul 24, 2014 1:57 pm

Down even more today...
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by fishdrzig » Fri Jul 25, 2014 6:31 pm

I own some GTU  in a tax advantaged account --do I still need to file special forms??
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Jul 25, 2014 6:32 pm

fishdrzig wrote: I own some GTU  in a tax advantaged account --do I still need to file special forms??
Nope.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Buying GTU now?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:26 pm

Premium narrowed to -4.1%, NAV increase of roughly 1.4% if I calculated today's results accurately.
Last edited by buddtholomew on Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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