2014 Halftime report

[Kshartle]

Returns since bailouts and QE operations:

                    2009        2010        2011        2012          2013        2014 halftime
GLD/VTI        26.5%      23.3%        5.3%        11.5%        2.6%          8.9%
TLT/SHY      -10.7%      5.7%        17.7%      1.5%        -6.6%          6.1%
Difference      37.2%      17.6%      -12.4%      10%          9.2%          2.8%


Well......it's pretty clear that the equity side of the PP is still beating the fixed dollar side although the bonds have been holding their own this year.

Anyone think the performance gap will close or widen for the rest of the year?

[dualstow]

With stocks, we haven't got into irrational exuberance time yet, in my opinion.
Perhaps after the Dow hits 17,000 (just a stone's throw away), and when the S&P hits 2000? (Just 1.3% to go).

[Kshartle]

D are you saying you think once those thresholds are breached we are likely to see a big move higher in your opinion?

[dualstow]

D are you saying you think once those thresholds are breached we are likely to see a big move higher in your opinion?

More like wishful thinking on my part. I'd like to rebalance out of stocks again.
As for my opinion: stocks may go up, or they may go down.    But I do think psychology could trump valuations for a while if those numbers are breached.

[buddtholomew]

Returns since bailouts and QE operations:

                    2009        2010        2011        2012          2013        2014 halftime
GLD/VTI        26.5%      23.3%        5.3%        11.5%        2.6%          8.9%
TLT/SHY      -10.7%      5.7%        17.7%      1.5%        -6.6%          6.1%
Difference      37.2%      17.6%      -12.4%      10%          9.2%          2.8%


Well......it's pretty clear that the equity side of the PP is still beating the fixed dollar side although the bonds have been holding their own this year.

Anyone think the performance gap will close or widen for the rest of the year?

Interesting that you consider GLD a part of the equity side; or is it that VTI and GLD are not fixed income?

[Kshartle]

Returns since bailouts and QE operations:

                    2009        2010        2011        2012          2013        2014 halftime
GLD/VTI        26.5%      23.3%        5.3%        11.5%        2.6%          8.9%
TLT/SHY      -10.7%      5.7%        17.7%      1.5%        -6.6%          6.1%
Difference      37.2%      17.6%      -12.4%      10%          9.2%          2.8%


Well......it's pretty clear that the equity side of the PP is still beating the fixed dollar side although the bonds have been holding their own this year.

Anyone think the performance gap will close or widen for the rest of the year?

Interesting that you consider GLD a part of the equity side; or is it that VTI and GLD are not fixed income?

Yes because you actually own something, you haven't made a loan. In two of HB's early works he put stocks and gold, as well as other stuff into a category he called "equity".

[Tyler]

It's been a nice year so far.  Here's hoping it maintains this pace for a while. 

It's also interesting how forum activity (on the PP questions side) seems to have trailed off the last quarter.  There were lots of new investors when the PP was growing relative to stocks, and lots of hand-wringing when it had a down period last year.  But steady growth calms everyone down.    I appreciate topics like this to add some nice perspective to the less vocal periods where the PP just keeps on doing its thing.

[modeljc]

At halftime, I got three year PP returns of +20% and three years of Inflation at +5%.  That is a FAT bogey of 5% per year! By year end I hope two year PP returns will equal 3% or more after inflation.  We need a 2014 PP return of +10% or so to get to an acceptable bogey for 2013 and 2014.

[Kshartle]

three years of Inflation at +5%.

[goodasgold]

First half was great, but in just the first 3 days of July the PP seems to have succumbed to the "2013 syndrome": per Yahoo Finance, stocks today are up .42%, but TLT is down .32% and gold is falling .92% 

[Kshartle]

First half was great, but in just the first 3 days of July the PP seems to have succumbed to the "2013 syndrome": per Yahoo Finance, stocks today are up .42%, but TLT is down .32% and gold is falling .92% 

hmmmm I've got these numbers from July 1 - July 3:

VTI +1.11
GLD -0.85
TLT -2.15


of course we are now talking extremely short term

*Edit, just saw you were referring to today* 

[dualstow]

With stocks, we haven't got into irrational exuberance time yet, in my opinion.
Perhaps after the Dow hits 17,000 (just a stone's throw away), and when the S&P hits 2000? (Just 1.3% to go).

D are you saying you think once those thresholds are breached we are likely to see a big move higher in your opinion?

More like wishful thinking on my part. I'd like to rebalance out of stocks again.
As for my opinion: stocks may go up, or they may go down.    But I do think psychology could trump valuations for a while if those numbers are breached.

Now bring on the irrational exuberance!
Again, I'm hoping not predicting.