For those that don't like the intra-month volatility -- such as the back-to-back reversal signals of the last two days (an artifact of the oldest data point falling off) -- timing gold for long term purposes works just as well on a monthly closing basis. So today, the last trading day of the month, gold is now in a bullish uptrend after being bearish for several months. Typically, I prefer to wait for a downtrend break confirmation on intra-month signals to enter -- especially when the condition is marginal as now with gold in euros only +.06% gain for the month -- but that hasn't been quantified and may have resulted in worse historical performance.
B&H, post-fiat gold has a historical maximum drawdown of 76% or so. If you can't stomach that, even within the hedged PP framework, there is no choice but to be juidicious in taking your gold off the table during unfavorable technical periods. Or more realistically, hedging your physical buillion!
Gold Timing Update
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MachineGhost
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Gold Timing Update
Last edited by MachineGhost on Fri Jun 29, 2012 10:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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MachineGhost
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Re: Gold Timing Update
Another intramonth, back-to-back flip (buy-sell-buy) in gold as of yesterday.
Given the detoriating breadth of the recent stock market rally, we may be looking at 2008-style losses again soon.
Given the detoriating breadth of the recent stock market rally, we may be looking at 2008-style losses again soon.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Gold Timing Update
MG,
The advantage of investing a Variable Portolio in increasing-dividend stocks is the depreciation of share price allows us to accumulate more shares at discounted prices. Increasing-dividend stocks have 3 variables: dividend yield, dividend yield growth rate, and share price. The dividend yield and dividend yield growth rate are increasing while the price appreciation is the bonus part.
The advantage of investing a Variable Portolio in increasing-dividend stocks is the depreciation of share price allows us to accumulate more shares at discounted prices. Increasing-dividend stocks have 3 variables: dividend yield, dividend yield growth rate, and share price. The dividend yield and dividend yield growth rate are increasing while the price appreciation is the bonus part.
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Compassion Commitment Communication
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Compassion Commitment Communication
~~~~~~Wisdom Work Wealth~~~~~~
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MachineGhost
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Re: Gold Timing Update
I figured it was about time I posted an update. Note that the model I used changed since I wrote the OP. As shown in the chart below, patience is a virture...
[img width=700]http://i61.tinypic.com/1zbbe9v.png[/img]
[img width=700]http://i61.tinypic.com/1zbbe9v.png[/img]
Last edited by MachineGhost on Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Ad Orientem
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Re: Gold Timing Update
According to to these two talking heads, gold could be heading towards $1000 oz.
https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking ... 38797.html
Caveat: I don't play the market timing game with money, and I don't encourage others to. But the prognostication game can be amusing, as long as I am not in any danger of losing money...
https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking ... 38797.html
Caveat: I don't play the market timing game with money, and I don't encourage others to. But the prognostication game can be amusing, as long as I am not in any danger of losing money...
Trumpism is not a philosophy or a movement. It's a cult.
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dualstow
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Re: Gold Timing Update
Hey, could and towards, that's not very assertive.Ad Orientem wrote: According to to these two talking heads, gold could be heading towards $1000 oz.
How about "when and if": October 2013
And apparently in July I said something about it going to 750.
RIP LALO SCHIFRIN
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold Timing Update
where's gold heading now? 5K, long or short gold?dualstow wrote:Hey, could and towards, that's not very assertive.Ad Orientem wrote: According to to these two talking heads, gold could be heading towards $1000 oz.
How about "when and if": October 2013
And apparently in July I said something about it going to 750.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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dualstow
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Re: Gold Timing Update
Let's see. Gold is heading to....1278.3.buddtholomew wrote: where's gold heading now? 5K, long or short gold?
RIP LALO SCHIFRIN