peak oil

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Re: peak oil

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doodle wrote: If that is the case, how can society hedge its bets to stave off possible catastrophe? Sure, you can prepare as an individual, but in what ways should our leaders and politicians be thinking about creating a system that is more robust to potential future shocks?

Although you might not like politicians, one cannot argue that they will continue to exist and their decisions will have ramifications. I'm sure there are encouragements and incentives that can be provided that will do little harm but will also provide a more diversified and robust energy base for our nation.

Intelligent socities do these kinds of things. They have discussions about the "what ifs" and they make contingency plans in case the forecasts don't turn out as expected. You seem to be suggesting that to make back up plans or design fail safe mechanisms is totally absurd because you are absolutely 100 percent sure that peak oil won't happen.
Can you give me an example of an "intelligent society" governed by wise and far-thinking politicians who diminished their standard of living in the present (even only slightly) to make their society "more robust to potential future shocks?"

It's not that I disagree with you, doodle, it's just that talking about "intelligent societies" and politicians thinking long-term and hedging societal bets based on uncertain future dangers seems so laughably utopian that I just can't possibly see it happening. If that's what needs to happen in the event that peak oil is true, then I think we can pretty confidently count on it NOT happening, and prepare accordingly. I could be wrong of course, but I think history is pretty strongly on the side of the person expecting political leaders to be greedy, selfish, and short-sighted.
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Re: peak oil

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I guess one area where I see a lot of room for improvement (since im building a house) is in.the building code.

Sure, you could argue that they should just eliminate the building code, but that isn't going to happen, so what are some things that could be done to improve upon it in helping to design structures that are longer lasting and less prone to destruction in natural disasters as well as having a smaller environmental footprint?

Unfortunately, our housing construction methods are largely culturally driven according to a certain (completely arbitrary) design aesthetic that isn't in harmony with nature. I believe that if one were to throw culturally determined aesthetics out the window for a moment and look purely at functionality of the structures, designing affordable and comfortable homes with zero carbon footprints would be quite achievable.

Now why doesn't it happen? I mean, if most people were given a choice between a safe comfortable low maintenace home that had low energy requirements and was impervious to a particular regions natural disasters or a home that might be comfortable but was energy inefficient and prone to all sorts of natural disasters I think the choice would be easy. But then if you showed them a picture of how the two homes looked, they would probably not want to live in the more functional home because of the fact that it didn't fit their culturally conceived idea of what a home looks like.

That to me makes no sense. And the only way to change it without either catastrophe driven market forces or overbearing politicians is to begin to have a cultural shift through our media and popular culture. Imagine if HGTV began to air more specials on these types of homes and began to bring more alternative styles of functional construction into the mainstream what would happen. Slowly but surely I'm convinced that building codes and market demands would begin to change. This process would not be anymore coercive than what is already happening in the marketplace so I don't see where the objection would be.

Of course, how do you implement something like this? I'm not sure, other than to hope that the people who control and disseminate information begin to think more civically minded...
Last edited by doodle on Sun May 04, 2014 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peak oil

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The problem is the existing stock of buildings, not new construction. Most existing houses are ridiculously inefficient, but were designed in such a manner that retrofitting them for greater efficiency would largely use more resources than the effort would save.

For example, I could install two to four inches of foam insulation on the exterior of my house's crumbling stucco, and then re-stucco it. The net effect, if done right, would be to save me some of the money I spend on natural gas to heat the home in winter. But the foam itself is a petroleum product with a high carbon footprint! It's also highly flammable, and most of it acts as an accelerant unless treated with even more chemicals. I could use rock wool insulation board instead, which is a "natural" stone product--basically fiberglass--but the fibers are stone rather than glass. But spinning stone into fibers is a ridiculously energy-intensive production process, and that energy ain't coming from wind turbines, let me tell you that. Instead, I could use a more "natural" insulation like cellulose, but that would require basically redoing all the siding and framing to create a new, larger cavity to hold the cellulose, and the result would be worse than the rigid boards due to the thermal bridging of the studs.

Finally, the new stucco coat is a cement product, and cement is incredibly energy-intensive to produce and made from non-renewable mineral inputs. What are my alternatives?
1. Vinyl - made of non-renewable petroleum products, toxic when it catches fire
2. Wood - rots and warps in the sunny climate I live in; would require constant replacement (not very green)
3. Fiber cement - still a cement product
4. Aluminum - very energy-intensive to extract and process; non-renewable
5. Brick - very energy intensive to extract raw materials and create
6. Natural stone - very energy intensive to extract and process; non-renewable.
7. Manufactured stone - basically colored cement

This would certainly save me some money, and for that I can calculate a payback time and effective rate of return and see if the expenditure is monetarily worth it. But would all this energy expenditure (most of it fossil-fuel based) be worth it to save maybe 70 therms of natural gas a year?

You can't win.


New construction is different, but as you build this home of yours, you'll realize for yourself what I could tell you now. It Just Ain't That Easy.
Last edited by Pointedstick on Sun May 04, 2014 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peak oil

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doodle wrote: The thing that I'm curious about MG is where your surety about this coming energy revolution comes from when geologists and industry insiders are so divided?
An interesting TED talk I listened to yesterday.....

http://www.ted.com/talks/donald_sadoway ... ble_energy

Gave me some optimism on the subject. I think this guy correctly identifies where the solution is going to come from and I'm not talking necessarily about the batteries he is building though that looks promising.
Last edited by ns3 on Sun May 04, 2014 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peak oil

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ns3 wrote:
doodle wrote: The thing that I'm curious about MG is where your surety about this coming energy revolution comes from when geologists and industry insiders are so divided?
An interesting TED talk I listened to yesterday.....

http://www.ted.com/talks/donald_sadoway ... ble_energy

Gave me some optimism on the subject. I think this guy correctly identifies where the solution is going to come from and I'm not talking necessarily about the batteries he is building though that looks promising.
Good talk. As always, the downsides and problems with this system weren't addressed. Anyways, the impetus for these projects doesn't happen until the dialogue starts in society that there is a potential problem. To sit back and gloat that we have 100 more years of gas in the ground (despite the fact that 90 percent of the gas is unproven) is just plain stupid. Regardless of whether we can extract it all we shouldn't have all of our eggs in one basket. Even if alternative technologies are currently above market prices, the diversity they provide to our system has great value
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Re: peak oil

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doodle wrote: Anyways, the impetus for these projects doesn't happen until the dialogue starts in society that there is a potential problem.
I'm not sure I agree with that statement, especially if the "dialogue" centers around Washington, D.C. I gathered from this TED talk that they did get some government funding for the project but it sounded mostly like private resources. And it was interesting that he got loud applause every time he mentioned that.
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Re: peak oil

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doodle wrote: The thing that I'm curious about MG is where your surety about this coming energy revolution comes from when geologists and industry insiders are so divided? The writers over at theoildrum.com aren't light on facts and experience and all of them are lacking your optimism.
What did I say about the 95%?  There's one in every bar.  There's always skeptics and cynics, that's why not everyone is rich.  Its the way life works, only a few vanguard visionaries see the future, actually exploit the opportunity and get rich.  Follow the money, not bolivating.  When has the world ever ended like all the doomsayers, soothsayers and skeptics have predicted?  Remember the 20th century.  It sure did look like the world was ending for different populations of people, yet here we are in the midst of an energy renaissance not long after so-called "Peak Oil" failed to materialize.  What does history show over and over?  Almost everything that almost everyone believes is wrong.  I sure ain't smoking what almost everyone is believing!
I'm not saying that the energy revolution you predict won't happen, I'm simply saying it might not happen based on the facts and evidence that I have looked at. If that is the case, how can society hedge its bets to stave off possible catastrophe? Sure, you can prepare as an individual, but in what ways should our leaders and politicians be thinking about creating a system that is more robust to potential future shocks?
It's happening RIGHT NOW!  HERE, TODAY!  Oil is going to drop back down to $40 or less on the massive increase in supply.

Image
We we all know government bureacurats always underestimate everything.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Sun May 04, 2014 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peak oil

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And there's also a manufacturing renaissance going on as "onshoring" commences due to our wonderfully cheap and a plentiful natural gas supplies (and higher inflation/wages in China), courtesy of shale gas fracking.  And then there's chemicals and fertilizers and plastics and...

I have high hopes that the quality of manufactured goods will stop its 20-year downslide.  Enough with the junx already!
Last edited by MachineGhost on Sun May 04, 2014 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peak oil

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It's happening RIGHT NOW!  HERE, TODAY!  Oil is going to drop back down to $40 or less on the massive increase in supply.

40 dollars a barrel for oil? Maybe if the economy crashes again....

I believe that's below the cost of extraction for unconventional oil
Last edited by doodle on Sun May 04, 2014 8:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peak oil

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Seems fairly relevant:

http://contractingbusiness.com/service/ ... -day-sucks
These guys could make a mortuary cheerful.  Fortunately, none of their predictions came to pass.  Instead, things got better.

Ambient carbon monoxide declined 79%.  Emissions declined 58%.
Ambient ground level ozone fell 25%.  Emissions fell 49%
Ambient levels of lead plunged 92%.  Emissions plunged 96%.
Ambient nitrogen dioxide dropped 46%.  Emissions dropped 40%.
Ambient sulfur dioxide is down 71%.  Emissions are down 56%.

All of this happened against a backdrop of economic and population growth, making the reductions even more remarkable.  By any and all measures, the air is getting cleaner every year. Water is cleaner.  Endangered species are recovering.  There are fewer toxic wastes.  No one even talks about the ozone hole anymore.  Global warming has halted and considering we just experienced the coldest winter in more than 100 years, may even be reversing.

Our scarce resources are less scarce too.  According to the Energy Information Administration, proven oil reserves have increased 111% between 1980 and 2010.  Natural gas reserves jumped 157% over the same time period.  With new shale discoveries, both are even higher now.

You wouldn’t know anything about the improving environment or abundance of available energy if you talk with the environmentalists.  They’re too busy screaming that the glass is about empty to notice that it’s gone from half full to three quarters full.

The environmental movement is about scarcity and doing without.  Less is more, they say.

[...]

In his landmark book, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey contrasted an abundance mentality with a scarcity mentality.  People with an abundance mentality believe there is plenty for everyone.  They don’t worry when someone gets a bigger slice of the pie because they know the pie can grow.  In business, they invest in their companies and people.  They live in a world of hope, seeking and expecting prosperity.

People with a scarcity mentality live in a zero sum world.  For every winner, there’s a loser.  They live in fear of loss instead of anticipation of success.  Things get worse for people with a scarcity mentality, never better.
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Re: peak oil

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Desert wrote:
Pointedstick wrote: Seems fairly relevant:

http://contractingbusiness.com/service/ ... -day-sucks
I agree that environmentalists can overdo the doom and gloom, but at least some of the improvements that have happened have happened BECAUSE of environmentalists.  Air quality is one of them.  With the number of autos on roads today, our skies would look more like China's without the tremendous improvements in emissions technology.  And those improvements came about because they were required.  And the requirements were driven by environmentalists.   
Thank you, Desert. I don't disagree that in certain instances certain environmentalists can be a bit extreme. However, were it not for their efforts I am certain that we would be living in a much more poisoned and polluted world. China is a filthy environmental mess and it is the burgeoning environmental movement there that is starting to hold politicians and industry's feet to the fire and force change. I think the history shows that it is often concerned individuals and organizations that spur economic innovation by pressuring industry to adopt higher standards. 

Environmentalism is also not the domain of simple whackjobs either. Anyone can see that man is highly dependent on a complex ecology for his survival. It is certainly possibly that through lack of awareness of its importance or its delicate nature we could simply end up poisoning our own well. A lot of bright and intelligent people have been aware of our planets precarious energy issue. For example, Buckminster Fuller (a very lucid practical thinker and a man I very much admire) wrote at length about energy, and "the need to stop burning up the planet in order to energize it". He worried that fossil fuels could rob humanity of its future by poisoning the environment.
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Re: peak oil

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In his landmark book, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey contrasted an abundance mentality with a scarcity mentality.  People with an abundance mentality believe there is plenty for everyone.  They don’t worry when someone gets a bigger slice of the pie because they know the pie can grow.  In business, they invest in their companies and people.  They live in a world of hope, seeking and expecting prosperity.
Please define "prosperity"?

Is it 5000 square foot mansions and hummer H2s in every garage? Is it having closets full of enough clothing for an entire African village?

I think one of my primary concerns with our culture is that the word "prosper" has come to be defined solely by material means and this is destructive not only to our own freedom, security, and happiness, but also to our survival as a species. Our entire economic system is built upon the idea that the good life is to be obtained through pursuit of the material. 

I love this passage by Thoreau on this very topic:
According to Liebig,(27) man's body is a stove, and food the fuel which keeps up the internal combustion in the lungs. In cold weather we eat more, in warm less. The animal heat is the result of a slow combustion, and disease and death take place when this is too rapid; or for want of fuel, or from some defect in the draught, the fire goes out. Of course the vital heat is not to be confounded with fire; but so much for analogy. It appears, therefore, from the above list, that the expression, animal life, is nearly synonymous with the expression, animal heat; for while Food may be regarded as the Fuel which keeps up the fire within us — and Fuel serves only to prepare that Food or to increase the warmth of our bodies by addition from without — Shelter and Clothing also serve only to retain the heat thus generated and absorbed.

[18]    The grand necessity, then, for our bodies, is to keep warm, to keep the vital heat in us. What pains we accordingly take, not only with our Food, and Clothing, and Shelter, but with our beds, which are our night-clothes, robbing the nests and breasts of birds to prepare this shelter within a shelter, as the mole has its bed of grass and leaves at the end of its burrow! The poor man is wont to complain that this is a cold world; and to cold, no less physical than social, we refer directly a great part of our ails.  The summer, in some climates, makes possible to man a sort of Elysian life.(28) Fuel, except to cook his Food, is then unnecessary; the sun is his fire, and many of the fruits are sufficiently cooked by its rays; while Food generally is more various, and more easily obtained, and Clothing and Shelter are wholly or half unnecessary. At the present day, and in this country, as I find by my own experience, a few implements, a knife, an axe, a spade, a wheelbarrow, etc., and for the studious, lamplight, stationery, and access to a few books, rank next to necessaries, and can all be obtained at a trifling cost. Yet some, not wise, go to the other side of the globe, to barbarous and unhealthy regions, and devote themselves to trade for ten or twenty years, in order that they may live — that is, keep comfortably warm — and die in New England at last. The luxuriously rich are not simply kept comfortably warm, but unnaturally hot; as I implied before, they are cooked, of course à la mode.(29)

[19]    Most of the luxuries, and many of the so-called comforts of life, are not only not indispensable, but positive hindrances to the elevation of mankind. With respect to luxuries and comforts, the wisest have ever lived a more simple and meagre life than the poor. The ancient philosophers, Chinese, Hindoo, Persian, and Greek, were a class than which none has been poorer in outward riches, none so rich in inward. We know not much about them. It is remarkable that we know so much of them as we do. The same is true of the more modern reformers and benefactors of their race. None can be an impartial or wise observer of human life but from the vantage ground of what we should call voluntary poverty. Of a life of luxury the fruit is luxury, whether in agriculture, or commerce, or literature, or art. There are nowadays professors of philosophy, but not philosophers. Yet it is admirable to profess because it was once admirable to live. To be a philosopher is not merely to have subtle thoughts, nor even to found a school, but so to love wisdom as to live according to its dictates, a life of simplicity, independence, magnanimity, and trust. It is to solve some of the problems of life, not only theoretically, but practically. The success of great scholars and thinkers is commonly a courtier-like success, not kingly, not manly. They make shift to live merely by conformity, practically as their fathers did, and are in no sense the progenitors of a noble race of men. But why do men degenerate ever? What makes families run out? What is the nature of the luxury which enervates and destroys nations? Are we sure that there is none of it in our own lives? The philosopher is in advance of his age even in the outward form of his life. He is not fed, sheltered, clothed, warmed, like his contemporaries. How can a man be a philosopher and not maintain his vital heat by better methods than other men?

[20]    When a man is warmed by the several modes which I have described, what does he want next? Surely not more warmth of the same kind, as more and richer food, larger and more splendid houses, finer and more abundant clothing, more numerous, incessant, and hotter fires, and the like. When he has obtained those things which are necessary to life, there is another alternative than to obtain the superfluities; and that is, to adventure on life now, his vacation from humbler toil having commenced. The soil, it appears, is suited to the seed, for it has sent its radicle downward, and it may now send its shoot upward also with confidence. Why has man rooted himself thus firmly in the earth, but that he may rise in the same proportion into the heavens above? — for the nobler plants are valued for the fruit they bear at last in the air and light, far from the ground, and are not treated like the humbler esculents, which, though they may be biennials, are cultivated only till they have perfected their root, and often cut down at top for this purpose, so that most would not know them in their flowering season.
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Re: peak oil

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You know that I pretty much agree with you, doodle. But even so, I find that minimalism can easily be taken too far and transform into self-denial. If one extreme is acquiring material goods that will not bring you much if any additional happiness, the other is surely denying yourself the small luxuries or even nicer versions of necessities, even though they would bring you pleasure.

I also know that the balance for me is different than the balance for everybody else. If someone really is made happier by owning a 5,000 square foot mansion with an H2 in the garage, who am I to judge? This lifestyle has complications and costs that mine does not, and if this hypothetical person is willing to pay those costs, then IMHO we should not castigate him for it. If there are externalities in this lifestyle that are not reflected in the monetary costs he must pay, then we should endeavor to make him pay them, but even this can be taken too far; our very existence represents externality! Forget fossil fuel burning machines; when I so much as breathe, I'm adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. My house is an externality to my neighbors across the street whose view of the mountain now isn't as good. My walking down the sidewalk is an externality to other pedestrians, who are more crowded and whose pace slows as a result. Etc etc etc. In the end, the quest to reduce externalities by making them into costs that must be paid by the externalizer (?) must itself be checked.
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Re: peak oil

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To me the key environmental question really is about how does one effect change in people's habits short of 1. the external forces of crises 2. political regulation and control. To me, the only option amenable to freedom that is left is through a change of our cultural paradigm and values.

Certainly, each individual should be free to make up his own mind,  however, my concern is that global capitalism is not a netural system from which a person can freely reflect. People are indoctrinated from the moment they are born into a system which tells them that the problems of life can be solved through material means. And everywhere they turn they are encouraged to buy material things all of which places a heavy toll on our environment.
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Re: peak oil

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doodle wrote: To me the key environmental question really is about how does one effect change in people's habits
That's easy: you be that change you want to see in others; you visibly feel great about it; and then (and only then) you broadcast it to the world and people will start wanting to be like you. At that point, the forces of peer pressure will cause them to start exposing their friends and relatives to the information all on their own.

Exhibit A: Mr. Money Mustache.
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Re: peak oil

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Pointedstick wrote:
doodle wrote: To me the key environmental question really is about how does one effect change in people's habits
That's easy: you be that change you want to see in others; you visibly feel great about it; and then (and only then) you broadcast it to the world and people will start wanting to be like you. At that point, the forces peer pressure will cause them to start exposing their friends and relatives to the information all on their own.

Exhibit A: Mr. Money Mustache.
I entirely agree. He and Jacob Lund Fisker are doing a great job of drawing attention to this philosophy. I just wonder how much real effect these blogs can have against a massive juggernaut of consumer advertising and entrenched cultural norms. I really think it would require bigger boys to step up to the plate. As in my previous example, a channel like HGTV and a handful of magazines pretty much drive consumer demands in housing. A real effort on their part to begin to effect more intelligent, environmental building methods, and highlighting the benefits of homes with reasonable square footages instead of constantly showcasing homes with palatial kitchens, bathrooms, and master suites really could have an enormous impact. Of course, we live in a money economy and not a resource one so our priorities get screwed up.

It is funny how humans can be made to perceive one thing as wasteful and another as not wasteful simply by their upbringing and cultural norms. For example, it would be unthinkable for someone to wash their hands in the bathroom sink and then walk away and leave the water running for an hour, yet that same person wouldn't think twice of leaving the lights on in the room after they had left it or air-conditioning a space that no one was going to be in for the whole day. Why in the situation of water waste would people be appalled, yet the waste of electricity doesn't bother nearly anyone?
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Re: peak oil

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Probably because the flow of electricity is harder to visualize than water. When water goes down the drain, that's water that you can't use anymore. But you don't see electricity, and it's hard to understand  what amount of it is big or small.

For example, I think the constant, 24-hour-a-day draw of 40 watts from my modem and router combined is an enormous waste (and I'm about to put them on a timed surge protector that shuts off at night), but my parents have no concept of their 5 kW air conditioner being ridiculously wasteful.
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Re: peak oil

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Pointedstick wrote: Probably because the flow of electricity is harder to visualize than water. When water goes down the drain, that's water that you can't use anymore. But you don't see electricity, and it's hard to understand  what amount of is it big or small.

For example, I think the constant, 24-hour-a-day draw of 40 watts from my modem and router combined is an enormous waste (and I'm about to put them on a timed surge protector that shuts off at night), but my parents have no concept of their 5 kW air conditioner being ridiculously wasteful.
And that waste not only causes environmental pollution, but it also wastes work and effort because those resources had to be created and they benefit no one.

So I guess what I am driving at is that a better, cleaner, more "utopian" society could be created if people were provided better clearer information (water down the drain is clearer than electricity) and allowed to make decisions without being bombarded 24/7 by advertising and marketing dominated by companies whose sole purpose is to sell them something. In other words, my solution is the opposite of control.

As for advertising (because I think it has a huge effect on our culture of consumerism), I think it should perhaps be limited and not allowed to enter so freely into lives through television, radio, and print media. If I go to the mall or marketplace, I would not be opposed to someone advertising their product in that location. I just don't think my children should be exposed to some corporations message because they are watching sesame street and trying to learn to spell and count. 
Last edited by doodle on Wed May 07, 2014 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peak oil

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This seems relevant.  It is one of the three galactic power blocks that will be in the forthcoming game Elite: Dangerous:

THE FEDERATION

To an outsider, the hierarchy of Federation society is based on democratic principles - people vote within their System/State to elect Congressmen, and a President with an 8-year term and a ‘vote of confidence’ after the first 4 years.

However, corporate loyalty oils the machine, and Federation space is a battleground of commerce. Commercial organisations compete as aggressively as the law will allow for the time and attention of the Federal citizen, who goes through life bombarded by advertising.

Corruption is not unusual – individuals defend it shamelessly when caught as ‘getting one over the system’. Social class is only determined between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’.  There is a lot of poverty about, as well as conspicuous wealth.

The huge gross domestic product (GDP) of the Federation economy funds a large, well-equipped Federal Navy which projects its values and influence.

Culturally the Federation is tolerant of some things (like religions) but utterly intolerant of drug-taking, political activism, and certain cultures. A great many things are illegal, like slavery, cloning and certain narcotics.

Federal law is based on an agreed Constitution. People have rights and freedoms, enshrined by this agreement. Local ‘State’ law prohibits other trafficking to a greater or lesser degree.  Things like ship-based weapons, personal weapons, other milder drugs and alcohol are banned in some systems.

The media drives a culture of celebrity. Top ranking politicians, social commentators, entertainers and super-rich all command a great deal of media attention. This provides a massive distraction for the populace, to the extent that foreign wars conducted by the Federation on their behalf get little media attention. This has gone on for many hundreds of years, and there is no sign of it changing.


Doodle, anyone has the freedom to opt-out of our consumerist-materialist society.  Taken to the other extreme, no one had the freedom to opt out of the Sovet Union.  History has resoundly voted on which ideal was better.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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doodle
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Re: peak oil

Post by doodle »

Doodle, anyone has the freedom to opt-out of our consumerist-materialist society.  Taken to the other extreme, no one had the freedom to opt out of the Sovet Union.  History has resoundly voted on which ideal was better.
Its a good question and an interesting topic...soft vs. hard power. I think Noam Chomsky's film Manufacturing Consent does a good job talking about how choices are limited and curtailed.

Is there any difference between consumer materialist propaganda and soviet communist propaganda?
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
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MachineGhost
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Re: peak oil

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doodle wrote: Is there any difference between consumer materialist propaganda and soviet communist propaganda?
Yes, people believe in the former, no one did the latter.  Liberty seesm to give mainstream people the illusion of truth.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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MediumTex
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Re: peak oil

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I think that there is a lot to be said for not letting things bother you too much, especially things that are almost entirely abstract.

I think that people should worry about food, water, shelter, health care, and that sort of thing.  I think that they should also seek quality companionship, experiences of love, and a state of inner peace.

I think that spending too much time on the BIG THINGS THAT MIGHT DESTROY ALL OF HUMANITY is usually a waste of time.  It's okay if you find it entertaining, but if it really bothers you I think that focusing on other things is usually a good idea.  What is the point in allowing your mind to linger on things that do nothing but make you feel uneasy?

As a former peak oil hand wringer, I have sort of come to see most doomer porn narratives as being the equivalent of going to horror movies without realizing that they aren't real, and not understanding that they are only intended for entertainment.

If you look at Al Gore and see an environmental prophet of doom, you might get all scared and worked up.  If, however, you see Al Gore as a self-righteous monkey who likes to travel around and put on his end-of-the-world-monkey-show, then you can enjoy the show without allowing it to rattle you.

I used to follow the news very closely and I could give you a detailed description of almost every story unfolding at a given point in time, along with a well-reasoned perspective based upon my own observation and analysis.  At some point, though, I just stopped doing this because I realized what a colossal waste of time it was.  I finally came to see that "the news" is just a bunch of sad stories embellished and dramatized by cynical egomaniacs for the entertainment of people who they think are idiots. 

Once I saw behind the news media curtain, the spell was completely broken, and now I just can't bring myself to give a shit about things like a plane full of strangers that crashed on the other side of the world or what is happening on the Ukraine border. 

It's not that I'm unsympathetic to the suffering of others, it's just that the world is filled with suffering, and me sitting in my living room watching some faux-rugged dope like Geraldo Rivera tell me how I'm supposed to feel about all of the bad things that are happening in the world just seems to trivialize the suffering of others, and a week from now the average news viewer isn't even going to remember the story he is so worked up about today, much less actually do anything in response to the story. 
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
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Re: peak oil

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Couldn't agree with you more, MT. It might appear that I get worked up over these issues and emotional but at the end of the day I mostly just enjoy the banter back and forth here about the topics of our day. I find speculation and prediction entertaining but I invest my assets in the  permanent Portfolio because I realize that I really have no idea what the hell is going to happen. As far as life itself I've read enough philosophy and 20th century physics to realize that life in general is a mystery and that meaning and purpose are just mental constructs that you create to find a feeling of happiness. For some that might include raising a family, for others it might be the challenge of bench pressing 500 pounds or contorting their bodies into twisted yoga poses.....
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
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Re: peak oil

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MediumTex wrote: It's not that I'm unsympathetic to the suffering of others, it's just that the world is filled with suffering, and me sitting in my living room watching some faux-rugged dope like Geraldo Rivera tell me how I'm supposed to feel about all of the bad things that are happening in the world just seems to trivialize the suffering of others, and a week from now the average news viewer isn't even going to remember the story he is so worked up about today, much less actually do anything in response to the story.
But there IS more you could do... you could tweet about it, or like it on Facebook, or... or... something, lol.  :)

Good post.
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doodle
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Re: peak oil

Post by doodle »

flyingpylon wrote:
MediumTex wrote: It's not that I'm unsympathetic to the suffering of others, it's just that the world is filled with suffering, and me sitting in my living room watching some faux-rugged dope like Geraldo Rivera tell me how I'm supposed to feel about all of the bad things that are happening in the world just seems to trivialize the suffering of others, and a week from now the average news viewer isn't even going to remember the story he is so worked up about today, much less actually do anything in response to the story.
But there IS more you could do... you could tweet about it, or like it on Facebook, or... or... something, lol.  :)

Good post.
Well, I also wouldn't underestimate the process by which ideas and talk translate themselves into action. Christianity was just a bunch of guys sitting around talking about ideas of God, but it has become one of the most influential forces of the last 2000 years.
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
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