Kshartle wrote:
Big reversal in the last three days and back in profit.
I'm not surprised - the markets are smarter than the politicians. As of today Crimea has rejoined Russia after 60 years and this resolves at least some of the uncertainty of the last few weeks. I won't go deeper here for the sake of staying on topic.
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business, and a third let him keep in reserve."
- Talmud
Kshartle wrote:
Big reversal in the last three days and back in profit.
I'm not surprised - the markets are smarter than the politicians. As of today Crimea has rejoined Russia after 60 years and this resolves at least some of the uncertainty of the last few weeks. I won't go deeper here for the sake of staying on topic.
Yeah we have another topic for the geopolitical considerations. I take it no one else bought any Russia. I was prepared to buy up to 200% more than I bought if it fell lower but it looks (for the moment) that this tinsy 250 share pick up will be all I get.
That's fine as long as it goes up. Next time maybe I'll be bolder. It's tough to buy when war and rumors of war are flying. This may be a valuable lesson. I'm 34....plenty more opportunity in the coming years.
Kshartle wrote:
Big reversal in the last three days and back in profit.
I'm not surprised - the markets are smarter than the politicians. As of today Crimea has rejoined Russia after 60 years and this resolves at least some of the uncertainty of the last few weeks. I won't go deeper here for the sake of staying on topic.
Yeah we have another topic for the geopolitical considerations. I take it no one else bought any Russia. I was prepared to buy up to 200% more than I bought if it fell lower but it looks (for the moment) that this tinsy 250 share pick up will be all I get.
That's fine as long as it goes up. Next time maybe I'll be bolder. It's tough to buy when war and rumors of war are flying. This may be a valuable lesson. I'm 34....plenty more opportunity in the coming years.
Many PPers in here will probably live to 100 so at 34 you still have 2/3 go life to go...so live well.
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Despite the violence and sabre rattling, RSX has put in a serious hammer candlestick this week and is actually up on the week. It looks extremely bullish unless the complete worst-case scenario unfolds. If it does I will double or triple the investment.
Anyone else think things are worse in Ukraine and Russia now that immediately post Olympics? I do, and I see the russian market is nearly 10% off the lows so this tells me worst-case scenario was built in already.
Reub wrote:
RSXJ down 3% today. At my age I don't like to ride roller coasters.
The beauty of a worldwide diversified portfolio is that it has a very low volatility overall. My portfolio was flat yesterday and up 6.5% for the year.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
I catch every knife with these fundamental stats. With a p/fcf of 2-3 these companies can buy themselfs completly in 3 years. So as long as Putin doesn't kill the businesses this is a safe investment. I think at the end of the year the current crisis is history and nobody will talk about it anymore.
Dozens dead in clashes in Odessya. Ukraine looks to be splitting at a minimum if not totally being swallowed up by Russia. The West is unable to resist this except with token sanctions that will not be appreciated by the people (higher energy prices) or the economies.
The Russian stock market is holding firm despite much worse conditions than a month ago. What do you guys think? Is more escalation likely to lead to lower prices? It hasn't in a month. Is everything but hot war priced in?
I consider hot war so unlikely that it's not worthy of consideration for a small investment. I still have a standing order in to double my stake in RSX. I'm trying to be patient and let the price fall to my execution price, another 4% down or so.
Anyone own RSX or RSXJ? Anyone considering a buy?
I spent the 2nd half of last year buying GDXJ and some GDX. I can see picking nothing but Russia up this year.
I wonder what kind of portfolio you'd have today if you just spent every year for the last 20 buying nothing but the most hated and beat down sector year after year and never sold. I call it the "Grit Your Teeth" portfolio.
I see it like you, the stock market has held up very well on thursday and friday for what was going on. As long as the russians don`t invade, the crisis should be out of the public by summer after the elections. When they invade and the western world sanctions hit, it will lead to a last downspike.
I am hoping a bit that Putin comes out and calls the russian people in Ukraine to lay down the weapons to avoid further escalations. But i doubt that this will happen, given that he normally plays the strong man. (But the chance is there and i don`t think this will be unfavourable for his future in the current situation.)
We're a small distance away from breaking the supermajor downtrend line again and volume is relatively high, so we'll see if it is sustained. The two previous false breakouts were when the annexation happened, I believe.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Reub wrote:
Decision Moose is liking the Latin American Index ETF, ILF. It has moved into 2nd place in his rankings, behind EDV.
Given the historical performance of the past LT bonds picks, I wasn't exactly thrilled off my shoes. DecisionMoose is very laggy it seems.
And although its not a very precise indicator, a seven emerging market composite is currently green, which means more than half hit 52-week highs vs 52-week lows over the past 21 trading days. RSX is in the composite.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
We're a small distance away from breaking the supermajor downtrend line again and volume is relatively high, so we'll see if it is sustained. The two previous false breakouts were when the annexation happened, I believe.
I think those breakouts were in late 2013, pre olympics and pre-annexation. Personally though, I think trendlines are very subjective and depend upon which points you choose. I think support and resistance are much more reliable. Trendlines are self-fullfilling prophecies and many traders do look at them but support and reisistance are points where supply and demand imbalances were strong and people have positions short, or long or they got stopped out. Very likley that lots of orders are waiting there.
So it looks to me like a break at $30 will clear the way for a move to $40. Of course I'm getting ahead of myself and it will be bumpy.
I'm not seeing volume coming in for the trendline break. Support and resistance (which can be just as subjective) is not just horizontal. That's a big mistake traders make because when such is broken, price is not in a retracement, so risk increases on a failed breakout. You can't generally do tight stops on horizontal breaks unless the price has been going sideways in a narrow channel. The US market has been having a lot of failed breakouts lately due to lack of movement either way. Will it transfer over to emerging markets???
Last edited by MachineGhost on Fri May 23, 2014 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
MachineGhost wrote:
I'm not seeing volume coming in for the trendline break. Support and resistance (which can be just as subjective) is not just horizontal. That's a big mistake traders make because when such is broken, price is not in a retracement, so risk increases on a failed breakout. You can't generally do tight stops on horizontal breaks unless the price has been going sideways in a narrow channel. The US market has been having a lot of failed breakouts lately due to lack of movement either way. Will it transfer over to emerging markets???
I don't think horizontal support and resistance are subjective because you're identifying exact prices of turning points. The trendlines rely on connecting points of your choosing and drawing a line with the higher expectation of a reversal should price touch the line. The point at which price touches the line might have zero significance to anyone in our out of the markets though UNLIKE a support or resistance point where we know trends reversed, positions changed, supply/demand balance changed etc.
Now personally I do not buy breakouts or sell breakdowns. If price breaks out I expect it to be a failure until proven otherwise. Then I wait for a weak pull back to support. If it comes great, if it doesn't and the breakout moves on without me...ohh well. This allows for a limit order and a tight stop just under the support but now with a higher expectation of success, since price has accepted the new trading range.
I think you're probably better off selling a breakout than buying it because as you said.....many fail.
Kshartle wrote:
I don't think horizontal support and resistance are subjective because you're identifying exact prices of turning points. The trendlines rely on connecting points of your choosing and drawing a line with the higher expectation of a reversal should price touch the line. The point at which price touches the line might have zero significance to anyone in our out of the markets though UNLIKE a support or resistance point where we know trends reversed, positions changed, supply/demand balance changed etc.
That's fair, but a trendline is not subjective if drawn objectively. High price pivots used in trendlines are objective so long as you actually use those high price pivots, which is easy to do if you don't draw it by hand and let software do it. The only subjectivity should be in determing how strong of a trendline you want to work with; the drawing should be objective. So there's no effective difference between prices reacting at a valid trendline over prices reacting at your idea of numbered support and resistance, so long as you use exact numbers in both cases. But, the market doesn't work on exact numbers anyway; its fuzzy logic. Now personally, I don't know why investors need to have their insecurities pacified by rechecking previous price points since I don't have that urge, but it does seem to work.
Now personally I do not buy breakouts or sell breakdowns. If price breaks out I expect it to be a failure until proven otherwise. Then I wait for a weak pull back to support. If it comes great, if it doesn't and the breakout moves on without me...ohh well. This allows for a limit order and a tight stop just under the support but now with a higher expectation of success, since price has accepted the new trading range.
I'm not an avid trendline fan mostly because I'm anal about requiring quantification and didn't really understand their function at a deep level until recently (and hated how subjective they supposedly were). But most of the time you will find those weak pullbacks to support are occuring right after the initial break of a downtrend line. A wave 2 pullback; in other words where wave 1 is best confirmed to be so by an upcross of the downtrend line which is NOT a lagging indicator. So unless you monitor downtrend lines, you will never get onboard the breakouts that don't pullback. The problem here is, on average, all the truly profitable moves simply do not pullback or do not pullback enough after such a downtrend break.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Fri May 23, 2014 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
MachineGhost wrote:
But most of the time you will find those weak pullbacks to support are occuring right after the initial break of a downtrend line. A wave 2 pullback; in other words where wave 1 is best confirmed to be so by an upcross of the downtrend line which is NOT a lagging indicator. So unless you monitor downtrend lines, you will never get onboard the breakouts that don't pullback. The problem here is, on average, all the truly profitable moves simply do not pullback or do not pullback enough after such a downtrend break.
Trading with the larger trend is the solution.
If you're trading the pullback of a counter-trend rally you're going against the longer term downtrend. That's a no-no for me.
I would sell the weak pullback rally of a breakdown in a downtrend, not the weak pullback selloff of a breakout in a downtrend.
That being said....my purchase of RSX was not a trade. It's closer to catching a falling knife but I feel the fundamentals are so strong i just couldn't resist. I only bought 1/3 of the total I was willing to buy but price just missed hitting my bid on the second 1/3 and has moved up strongly.
I intend to buy more if it moves down and hold for the long-term. The earnings are too cheap to leave to someone else.
